pros & cons of counting indirect land use change ron plain, ph.d. professor of agricultural...
Post on 28-Dec-2015
217 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Pros & Cons of Counting Indirect Land Use Change
Ron Plain, Ph.D.Professor of Agricultural EconomicsUniversity of Missouri-Columbiahttp://web.missouri.edu/~rplain
“More Perspectives on Indirect Land Use Change Effects” by William K. Jaeger, Oregon State University
“Indirect Land Use: The Folly of Over-Indulgent Environmentalism?” by Mark Edelman, Iowa State University
Source: Agricultural Marketing Resource Center, Renewable Energy Newsletter, Dec 09 & Jan 10
Indirect Land Use Change
Indirect Land Use LogicU.S. biofuels production uses a lot of corn and some
veg oil that otherwise would be available for other uses (feed, food, etc)
This causes crop prices to rise and world crop acreage to increase
More cultivated acres means less carbon sequestration since CO2 is released when land in permanent vegetation (grass or trees) is converted to annual crops
Biofuels should be “charged” for this reduced CO2 sequestration
Are Indirect Impacts Important?
Can’t we just ignore them?
The 2007 Renewable Fuels Standards Act mandates the consideration of indirect land effects
3 Indirect Impacts of Biofuels
Fuel: Increased biofuel production will decrease fossil fuel use (not 1 to 1 relationship)
Feed: Increased distillers grain production will decrease corn use (not 1 to 1 relationship)
Land: Converting land from food/feed production to biofuel production in one location will cause acres to move into food/feed production elsewhere (not 1 to 1 relationship)
Are Indirect Impacts Important?
Let’s just ignore the indirect land use impact, it’s less precise and harder to calculate
One can clearly identify cars that are burning E10 ethanol rather than 100% gasoline
One can clearly identify animals that are eating DDGS instead of corn and soybean meal
One can never be certain which acres or even how many were brought into production because U.S. crops were used for biofuels
Are Indirect Impacts Important?
We should ignore the indirect land use impact because it threatens the continuing expansion of the biofuels industry
Replace imported energy with domestic Increase the energy supply
More energy = lower energy prices Improve the environment
GHG
Why does policy encourage biofuels?
Are biofuels part of the GHG solution?
or Are biofuels part of the GHG problem?
Why the Indirect Land Use Question?
Which fuel type is a bigger contributor to GHG, gasoline/diesel or ethanol/biodiesel?
The answer depends on what you count
Indirect Land Use Question
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CornBiomass
Gasoline Ethanol Ethanol --grams of GHG/MJ of
energy-- Feedstock + 4 + 24 + 10 Refining fuel +15 + 40 + 9 Vehicle +72 + 71 + 71 Feedstock Uptake 0 - 62 - 62 Sub-total +92 + 73 + 27
Source: Searchinger, et al, Science, February 29, 2008
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Corn Biomass Gasoline Ethanol Ethanol --grams of GHG/MJ of energy-- Feedstock + 4 + 24 + 10 Refining fuel +15 + 40 + 9 Vehicle +72 + 71 + 71 Feedstock Uptake 0 - 62 - 62 Land use change 0 +104 +111 Total +92 +177 +138
Source: Searchinger, et al, Science, February 29, 2008
Threatens public support for biofuels Puts at risk billions for U.S. farmers
Why the Indirect Land Use Question Is Important
U.S. Soybean Price, 1970-11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
70-7
1
72-7
3
74-7
5
76-7
7
78-7
9
80-8
1
82-8
3
84-8
5
86-8
7
88-8
9
90-9
1
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-0
3
04-0
5
06-0
7
08-0
9
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel
U.S. Corn Price 1970-11
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5
70-7
1
72-7
3
74-7
5
76-7
7
78-7
9
80-8
1
82-8
3
84-8
5
86-8
7
88-8
9
90-9
1
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-0
3
04-0
5
06-0
7
08-0
9
10-1
1
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel
U.S. Corn Production, 1970-10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1470 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
Production is increasing by 190 million bu/year
CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKSCrop Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Bil. Bushels
Stocks
Exports
Food, Seed& Industrial
Feed &Residual
Value of U.S. Corn Crop, 1970-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
6019
70
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Bill
ion
Dol
lars
Value of U.S. Corn Crop
2004 2009 Change -------billion dollars-------- U.S. feed 12.7 19.3 + 6.7 U.S. ethanol 2.7 15.8 +13.1 U.S. food, seed, other 2.8 4.8 + 2.0 Exports 3.7 7.0 + 3.3 Inventory 2.4 0.2 - 2.2 TOTAL 24.3 47.2 +22.9
Source: USDA/NASS
U.S. Net Farm Income, 1949-2010
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09
Billio
n $
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
50
54
58
62
66
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
02
06
$/acre
U.S. Farmland Values, 1950-2009*USDA/NASS
The key question: How much more land will be cultivated in a world with biofuels than in a world without biofuels?
Indirect Land Use Measurement
2007 Renewable Fuels Mandate
05
10152025303540
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Billion G
allons
Corn ethanol Cellulosic Bio-diesel More non-grain
Corn for ethanol needs to increase 220 million bushels/year
Corn Milled for Ethanol
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
90-9
1
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-0
3
04-0
5
06-0
7
08-0
9
10-
11
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
Forecast
% corn for ethanol:
2000-01: 6%
2005-06: 14%
2007-08: 23%
2009-10: 33%
2010-11: 34%
After 2014, 5.4 billion bushels per year will be used for ethanol
This year roughly 4.4 billion bushels of U.S. corn will be used to make ethanol. How much indirect land use does this cause?
Indirect Land Use Measurement
30% of the corn (the non-starch portion) used to make ethanol becomes DDGS and is used as livestock feed
Indirect Land Use Measurement
This year roughly 4.4 billion bushels of U.S. corn will be used to make ethanol.
3.1 billion bushels less feed
Indirect Land Use Measurement
Higher crop prices lead to a less profitable and smaller livestock/poultry industry, thus not all the 70% of the corn used to make ethanol will be replaced with more feed from elsewhere
Indirect Land Use Measurement
US Red Meat & Poultry Production, 2000-10
7678808284868890929496
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Bill
ion
Pou
nds
US Feed & Residual Use of Corn, 1975-10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
774
-75
76-7
7
78-
79
80-8
1
82-
83
84-
85
86-
87
88-
89
90-9
1
92-
93
94-
95
96-
97
98-
99
00-
01
02-
03
04-
05
06-
07
08-
09
10-
11
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
This year 4.4 billion bushels of U.S. corn will be used to make ethanol.
3.1 billion bushels less feed 2.1 billion bushels of feed will be replaced
Indirect Land Use Measurement
Higher crop prices lead to higher yields which holds down world crop acres
Indirect Land Use Measurement
U.S. Average Corn Yield, 1970-10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
18070 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
Bus
hels
Yield is increasing by 2 bu/year
U.S. Corn Crop
Source: USDA/NASS
Average increase in corn yield 1970-06 2.13bu/year 2006-10 3.60bu/year
This year 4.4 billion bushels of U.S. corn will be used to make ethanol.
3.1 billion bushels less feed 2.1 billion bushels of feed will be replaced Assuming an extra 1.5 bu/acre/year 1.6 billion bushels replaced on extra acres
Indirect Land Use Measurement
This year 4.4 billion bushels of U.S. corn will be used to make ethanol.
3.1 billion bushels less feed 2.1 billion bushels of feed will be replaced Assuming an extra 1.5 bu/acre/year 1.6 billion bushels replaced on extra acres Assuming 160 bu/acre land 10 million extra cultivated acres
Indirect Land Use Measurement
Where are these extra cultivated acres? What were these acres used for before?
Indirect Land Use Measurement
Markets adjust – using 5 billion bushels of corn annually for ethanol has impact on land use
2 to 3 million acres of increased cultivation per billion gallons of annual ethanol production
Calculating this impact on GHG is inexact Indirect land use shifts focus away from
renewable energy
Summary
top related