propane situation update, feb. 5, 2014
Post on 20-Jan-2016
1.174 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Propane situation update
February 5, 2014 | Washington, DC
By Energy Information Administration
NOAA forecast for below normal temperatures across much of the country through February 14; somewhat improved after
U.S. Energy Information Administration 2
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, made February 4
6-10 day outlook 8-14 day outlook
Heating fuel market shares by region
U.S. Energy Information Administration 3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey
DC
Share of homes by primary space heating fuel within each Census Region (fuels add to 100%)
Northeast
South
Midwest
West
U.S. total116 million homes
natural gas
propaneheating oilelectricity
woodkerosene/other/no heating
propane 4.5%
7%
81%
5%
10%
4%
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
heating oil
Regional share of all U.S. households by primary heating fuel
U.S. Energy Information Administration 4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey
14%
36%
34%
16%
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
propane
20%
31%
23%
26%
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
natural gas
Share of homes by primary space heating fuel across Census Regions (regions add to 100%)
Propane share of space heating demand by key regions and states
U.S. Energy Information Administration 5
Source: Census Bureau, 2011
StatePropane-Heated
HomesShare of
Total HomesMichigan 320,522 8%
Wisconsin 245,071 11%
Ohio 240,185 5%
Minnesota 213,359 10%
Missouri 212,317 9%
Illinois 189,025 4%
Indiana 176,520 7%
Iowa 162,117 13%
Kentucky 113,175 7%
Tennessee 110,486 4%
Oklahoma 103,017 7%
Kansas 83,386 7%
Nebraska 57,442 8%
South Dakota 54,015 17%
North Dakota 38,617 13%
Midwest Total 2,319,254 7%
StatePropane-Heated
HomesShare of
Total HomesNew York 237,738 3%
Pennsylvania 188,880 4%
New Hampshire 72,091 14%
Massachusetts 68,517 3%
New Jersey 60,990 2%
Connecticut 43,849 3%
Maine 41,477 7%
Vermont 38,497 15%
Rhode Island 10,361 3%
Northeast Total 762,400 4%
PADD 2 (Midwest) propane inventories have trended lower on strong crop drying and extremely cold temperatures
U.S. Energy Information Administration 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
inventory level
rolling five-year
averageand range
Typical corn harvest dates(Sept 20 – Nov 10)
Rollingfive-yearaverage
15.6 MMbbls
PADD 2 propane inventories(million barrels)
Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through January 31
January 319.6 MMbbls
Conway (KS) price premium over Mt. Belvieu (TX) grew rapidly in late January, but has since narrowed
U.S. Energy Information Administration 7
propane and propylene spot prices dollars per gallon
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters, data through February 4
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
corn harvestcold weather
Conway, Kansas (PADD 2)
Mont Belvieu, Texas (PADD 3)
price spread(Conway minusMont Belvieu)
The positive spread between Conway and Mont Belvieu will draw supplies northward into areas most impacted by cold weather
Oct-13 Mar-14
Retail propane prices in the Midwest have risen sharply
dollars per gallon
PADD 1 Heating Oil
PADD 2 Heating Oil
PADD 1 Propane
PADD 2 Propane
Source: State Heating Oil and Propane Program, data through February 3
U.S. Energy Information Administration 8
this winter through February 3
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Oct-11 Mar-12
winter 2011-2012
Oct-12 Mar-13
last winter
State-reported residential retail prices for states in the Midwest
U.S. Energy Information Administration 9
1/6/14 1/13/14 1/20/14 1/27/14 2/3/14Residential retail price (dollars per gallon, excluding taxes)Indiana 2.806 2.849 2.939 4.215 4.265
Iowa 1.960 1.997 2.584 4.709 3.590
Kentucky 2.517 2.540 2.577 3.785 3.852
Michigan 2.532 2.575 2.638 3.611 3.766
Minnesota 2.322 2.330 2.439 4.610 3.967
Missouri 2.251 2.265 2.433 3.997 3.672
Nebraska 1.911 1.920 2.005 4.073 3.357
North Dakota 2.263 2.273 2.322 4.569 3.839
Ohio 2.890 2.950 2.999 3.731 3.908
South Dakota 2.065 2.081 2.088 4.107 3.664
Wisconsin 2.194 2.241 2.276 4.490 3.945
Note: Illinois, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee do not report information Source: EIA, State Heating Oil and Propane Program, data through February 5http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U.S. propane production and trade trends
U.S. Energy Information Administration 10
U.S. propane and propylene production, imports, and exportsthousand barrels per day
Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly through November 2013
production
exportsimports
Since January 2011, production and exports have has grown by about 300 thousand barrels per day. Trade press reports suggest exports fell in late January 2014.
Winter 2013 propane supply diagram
11U.S. Energy Information Administration
For more information
12
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling
U.S. Energy Information Administration
top related