progress report on the community driven scenario … · geneva, 8 june 2012 | tom kram, pbl...
Post on 20-Aug-2018
215 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Geneva, 8 June 2012 | Tom Kram, PBLtom.kram@pbl.nl
1
Progress report on the community driven scenario process: New framework for future scenario development
35th Session of the IPCC
Motivation
Noordwijkerhout Parallel Process sought a way to craft NEW storylines & scenarios that could link research products across all three of the research communities.
Better climate assessment; and better assessment in general. Adding a new dimension to link IAM, IAV and CM.
Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability
Research
Climate Modeling
Integrated Assessment
Modeling
Exchange betweencommunities
The CM community wanted 4 levels of RF that span the literature.
– 8.5 Wm-2 (RCP 8.5, 1350ppm CO2-e)
– 6.0 Wm-2 (RCP 6.0, 850ppm CO2-e)
– 4.5 Wm-2 (RCP 4.5, 650ppm CO2-e)
– 2.6 Wm-2 (RCP 2.6, 450ppm CO2-e)
CMIAM
RCPs: from IAM to CM
Feb. 2010: NRC Workshop on Socioeconomic Futures for CC Research
Nov. 2010: IPCC Workshop on Socioeconomic Scenarios, Berlin
Jul. 2011: Meeting on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Changwon City
Aug. 2011: Draft Framework Paper posted (review by Oct; currently under revision -> publication)
Oct. 2011: IAMC preliminary intercomparison of SSP storylines and model runs, Laxenburg
Nov. 2011: Workshop on Socioeconomic Pathways, Boulder, CO
Dec. 2011: Formation of Joint IAV/IAM committee on SSP development and application (co-chairs Richard Moss and Tom Kram)
Jan. 2012: SSP quantification meeting, Utrecht
May 2012: Meeting on New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research, the Hague
History of SSP development
The Framework Paper
Defines the direction for new scenario development to explore uncertainty in terms of:– SOCIOECONOMIC CHALLENGES TO MITIGATION; AND– SOCIOECONOMIC CHALLENGES TO ADAPTATION
Designs a Linkage from new (SSP-based) scenarios to the Climate Model community’s RCP-based ensembles for new research.
Creates an intellectual framework in which to categorize scenarios along the two lines of uncertainty; to test whether or not SSPs really do produce scenarios of the desired character, and to test the ongoing work.
Socio-economic challengesfor adaptation
Soci
o-ec
onom
icch
alle
nges
for m
itiga
tion
SSP 5
SSP 2
SSP 4
SSP 3
SSP 1LowChallenges
HighChallenges
AdaptationChallengesDominate
MitigationChallengesDominate
IntermediateChallenges
SSP Logic
Source: Brian O’Neill, Presentation, “Introduction to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)”, the Hague.
SSPs havethree elementsStoryline: a verbal description of the state of the world. All non-quantitative aspects of the scenario are included here
IAM Quantitative Variablesdefine IAM reference “no-climate-policy” scenario inputs. E.g. reference population, GDP, technology, etc.
Non-IAM Quantitative Variables define reference “no-climate-policy” scenario, but are not IAM drivers. E.g. governance index or ecosystem productivity and sensitivity.
Into the Matrix: SSPsand RCPs
SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP4 SSP5Reference X X X X X
RC
P Fo
rcing
/C
limate
Ch
.
8.5 Wm-2 X6.0 Wm-2 X X X X4.5 Wm-2 X X X X X2.6 Wm-2 X X X
SPA
s
SSPs The Movie:The Matrix Architects
SSP status and plansas of May 2012
General– Ad-Hoc JIIC to continue coordination (post AR5?)– Extended membership (e.g. IAV and DC/Emerging Economies)
Narratives– Drafts in Boulder Report, under review– Plus: filling gaps, extensions: short term, scales, uses/users,
governance, “shocks”? SSP key variables quantification
– Initial set (Pop, GDP, Urbanization) open for review– Tests with IAM models started, hand-off to ISI-MIP and AG-MIP– Shorter term points/corridors
IAM SSP assumptions– Under development & testing; internal review -> open review
12
SSP status and plansas of May 2012/cont’d
Nested scale applications and tools– Group launched in the Hague, incl. downscaling methods
Improved communication– Within research communities– To “outside” world
IAV quantification and metrics– Expanded list of topics/activities in the Hague
SPA: Shared (climate) Policy Assumptions– Small SPA set for mitigation (EMF, others)– Explore adaptation policies for SPAs
Matching RCPs and SSPs– Examples and priorities for uses/users– Facilitating data distribution (with DDC – TGICA)
13
Prospects for IPCC AR5 New GCM/ESM ensemble runs using RCPs [WGI] Full set of IAM model runs: matching SSPs and RCPs [WGIII] IAV model intercomparisons using SSPs: ISI-MIP, AG-MIP;
possibly WWAP [WGII] ‘Binning’ published work in WGII and/or WGIII Reports? Regional/country mitigation studies? [WGIII] Regional/(sub)country IAV studies? [WGII]
And a long list for post-AR5. . . . . . .
14
top related