production economics of allanblackia if allanblackia is a cash cow? - how big is the cow - how much...

Production Economics of Allanblackia

If Allanblackia is a cash cow?

- How big is the cow- How much cash does the cow give you

What are our assumptions?

- seedlings/cuttings are available- farm-gate price is $0.15 per kilo of seeds- one village/community will produce viable quantity- cuttings take 4 years to fruit- seedlings take 12 years to fruit- adequate labour for processing- there will be sufficient males in the landscape- average yield of 30 fruit per tree- three AB fruit give 1 kg of seeds - no negative aspects of AB (alternate pest host)- no significant input costs (pests, fertiliser)- no punitive taxes or barriers- no restrictive policies

Values of average total seed weight per fruit per tree are shown for 57 trees, with measurements based on 40 fruit per tree. Values varied widely between trees, and differences were statistically significant. Source: ICRAF Cameroon

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Tree

Ave

rage

tota

l see

d w

eigh

t per

frui

t per

tree

(g)

Tree-to-tree variation in seed weight per fruit for A. floribunda trees sampled at the Yalpenda site, Cameroon

3 fruit = 1 kg seeds

4 fruit = 1kg seeds

5 fruit = 1kg seeds

Years to fruit

Size of tree Multiplication rate per year

Seeds 10-12 20-30m 5000

Rooted cuttings

- Tree stump

3-4 5-8m 200

Rooted cuttings

- Mother block

3-4 5-8m 4000

Marcots 1-2 4-6m 20

Grafts 2-3 3-4m 100

The farm or “production system”, with :

Livestock raising systems

Uncultivated lands

Tools, machines, buildings and cash flows

Workforce and labour organisation during the year

Transformation systems

Cropping systems

The farm level and the system approach

The cultivated plot and the system approach

Perennial crops and the case of cacao tree

Dynamic systems

Intercropping and complex associations

Cacao trees

Shade / Fruits

Shade / Timber /Fruits …

Time

Olympe and the cropping system level

Variables definitions(Information database)

Croppinglnd

livestockraising

systemsAll taxes

andunits

Olympe : the farm level (allocation of surfaces)

All taxesand

units

STEP 1Definitionsfor UNITS

and TAXES

Variables definitions(Information database)

STEP 2

Definitions for

- NAMES of VARIABLES

- UNIT PRICESPER type of INCOME and

COST.

- AVAILABLE WORKING PERIODS during the year

Croppingand

livestockraising

systems

STEP 3 Definitions

for- cycles,- q/ha- NECESARY working timeFARM :

C & L systems

and areas

STEP 4- cropping S,- livestock S- areas

The region level and the system approach

Farming systems

A

A

A

B

B

Olympe functions : external effects

Variables definitions(Information database)

Croppingand

livestockraising

systemsAll taxes

andunits FARM :

C & L systems

and areas

Typologies

REGION :Farm types

Global analysis

Prices and yields

variations

Clove cultivation

What are existing enterprises and alternatives to AB

Eucalyptus over tea

Bananas and maize

Black peppers and gliricidia

Economies of scale

No. trees per ha

Survival % Number surviving

Income per tree ($)

Total income per ha ($)

Year 1 625 75 469 0 0

Year 2 469 90 422 0 0

Year 3 422 95 400 0 0

Year 4 400 100 400 0.40 160

Year 5 400 100 400 0.60 240

Year 6 400 100 400 0.85 340

Year 7 400 100 400 1.00 400

Year 8 400 100 400 1.00 400

Year 9 400 100 400 1.00 400

Year 10 400 100 400 1.00 400

No. trees per ha

Survival % Number surviving

Income per tree ($)

Total income per ha ($)

Year 1 625 75 469 0.30 $141

Year 2 469 90 422 0.30 $126

Year 3 422 95 400 0.30 $120

Year 4 400 100 400 0.40 160

Year 5 400 100 400 0.60 240

Year 6 400 100 400 0.85 340

Year 7 400 100 400 1.00 400

Year 8 400 100 400 1.00 400

Year 9 400 100 400 1.00 400

Year 10 400 100 400 1.00 400

If you want 10 million trees at year 4 then plant 15.6 million in year 1

(= 25,000 ha equivalents)(but may be spread over 200,000 ha

and 80,000 households)

Cost of establishmentYear 1 = $3,510,000Year 2 = $3,160,000Year 3 = $3,000,000

Total = $9,670,000To generate a 40,000 t oil per annum business

= $30 million per annum

Village Nurseries

- Key to success of the venture, not well coordinated at present

- Need technical, financial and social aspects (partnership, joint accountability)

- Need different approaches (community, individual, associations)

- Need to document germplasm being used (origin, type, quantity)

- Need to maintain register of nurseries and activities

- Need to be clear on buy-back, research involvement, etc

- Need awareness raising of what use seedlings for (e.g. grafting)

Nursery business

Village Nurseries

Vegetative Propagation

$10 is compensation not income

Risks versus Returns

low medium high

low * *

medium *

high

R ISKS

RETURNS

Average income per working day on crop

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Cocoa Palmoil Allanblackia Maize Tea

US

$