presented by: steve barker policy, research and economic analysis

Presented by:

Steve BarkerPolicy, Research and Economic Analysis

Oklahoma Population ProjectionsThrough 2075

Common projection methodology Oklahoma’s population trends Projections for Tulsa MSA counties Questions and answers

Today’s Topics of Discussion

Standard Projection Formula

-A- Population

in the current

year

-B-Births in the

current year

-D-Net

migration

-C-Deaths in the

current year

-E-Population

projection for the next year

-E-Population projection

for the year

-F-Births in the next year*

-H-Net

migration

-G-Deaths in the next year

-I-Population

projection for the next year

State level projections start with 2010 Decennial Census counts and follow forecasting routines developed by the US Census Bureau:

+ - + =

+ - + =

-F- *Based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age

Who is included in projections? Everybody!

• All civilian residents living within the state• US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma• Prisoners, including out of state prisoners held at

private prisons located within the state

Projection of births and deaths

Birth and death rates assumed to remain constant.

Births Deaths

Birth rates generally declining across the United States and in Oklahoma

Health care technology improving

Hispanic population increasing Oklahoma’s smoking reduction programs and diabetes awareness

Hispanic population has higher birth rate

Oklahoma is among the youngest states in the nation

As percentage of Hispanics increases, rate of decline in the state’s overall birth rate expected to slow, stall or

reverse

Obesity epidemic – two thirds of state may be obese by 2030

Oklahoma’s net migration history

• 1970 to 1983: Oklahoma boomed– Peak annual growth of 3.6% in

1982 – Double digit annual percentage

growth in some less populated counties

• And then came the oil bust…• 1987: state’s annual population

growth rate dropped to -1.3%.

Net migration: what’s the norm?

• 1960 to 2011: Oklahoma’s population gain due to net migration averaged around 10,000 people annually – Swings from +80,500 in 1982 to -61,000 in 1987

• 1990 to today: Oklahoma’s average annual net migration gain just under 15,000

County projections handled differently

• For 64 counties, used straight linear regression trendline formulas– Based on population patterns from 1960 to 2011

• For 13 counties, all in western Oklahoma, straight linear regression formulas gave unrealistic results– Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer,

Harmon, Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman, Washita and Woods

• For these 13 counties, a curved, or power, trendline was judged to be a better fit

Matching up two methodologies

• Census Bureau population estimates based on birth, death and migration data

• They have situations where sum of parts doesn’t equal the expected whole

• They use a balancing figure that effectively serves as a “margin of error”

• This report used similar approach• Between 2010 and 2075, the required adjustment

averaged 0.2% of each year’s total population.

Oklahoma’s population trends

OK Population Concentration: 1910

OK Population Concentration: 2010

OK Population: Peak Decades

Population Growth: 1960 to 2010Totals

Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

Year Over Year Population Growth: 1960 to 2010

Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

Projections by AgeStatewide population projections by age group

2010 2075Population As % Projected Population As %

Age 00 to 04 264,126 7.0% 347,853 6.3%Age 05 to 09 259,336 6.9% 349,177 6.3%Age 10 to 14 253,664 6.8% 350,455 6.3%Age 15 to 19 264,484 7.1% 350,949 6.3%Age 20 to 24 269,242 7.2% 350,816 6.3%Age 25 to 29 265,737 7.1% 350,657 6.3%Age 30 to 34 241,018 6.4% 350,293 6.3%Age 35 to 39 232,742 6.2% 349,324 6.3%Age 40 to 44 228,195 6.1% 347,057 6.2%Age 45 to 49 261,242 7.0% 342,806 6.2%Age 50 to 54 264,369 7.0% 335,832 6.0%Age 55 to 59 235,969 6.3% 325,586 5.9%Age 60 to 64 204,513 5.5% 310,576 5.6%Age 65 to 69 159,392 4.2% 289,062 5.2%Age 70 to 74 121,075 3.2% 258,716 4.7%Age 75 to 79 95,051 2.5% 217,121 3.9%Age 80 to 84 69,284 1.8% 166,952 3.0%Age 85+ 61,912 1.7% 166,777 3.0%

Total Population 3,751,351 100.0% 5,560,007 100.0%

Projections for Tulsa MSA counties

71,916

173,122

934,215

144,991

1,503,330

Population Rankings 2012-2075

County Population Rank 2012 Population Rank 2075

Creek 11 10

Okmulgee 27 29

Osage 16 17

Pawnee 42 41

Rogers 6 5

Tulsa 2 2

Wagoner 8 7

With all that said, predicting the future is a bit like this…

So wish me luck!

For more information:www.okcommerce.gov/data

Email: steve_barker@okcommerce.govTwitter: @okdatacenter