presented by chris messer usda, nass, pacific regional ... · almond objective forecast 900,000...
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Presented by Chris MesserUSDA, NASS, Pacific Regional Office (PRO)
July 6, 2016
0.00
0.15
0.30
0.45
0.60
0.75
0.90
1.05
1.20
1.35
1.50
1.65
1.80
1.95
2.10
Bill
ion P
ounds
Almond Subjective Forecast vs. Final Production1997-2016
Final
Subjective
Almond Objective Forecast 900,000 bearing acres in 2016 Sample: 873 orchard blocks 2 trees per orchard block Sample represents the population Field Work: May 23 – June 23 Use 50+ Enumerators Random Path Method Sample of Nuts taken and sent to sizing
station Sizers measure kernel weight, length, width,
thickness and grade
Nuts being weighed at a sizing station
Samples are designed to take into account variety, location, and age of planting
Models are designed to produce a forecast of all almond production at the state level from the sample data
Models do not forecast production by variety. Separate models are run for Nonpareil since there are significant samples.
Sample & OM Models
1,0901,040
1,005
915
1,115
1,390
1,630
1,410
1,640
2,030
1,890
2,010
1,8701,900
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n m
ea
t lb
s.
Year
ALMOND PRODUCTION - CALIFORNIAOM Forecast vs Final Estimate
Final Forecast
Almond Set 2014 – 2016Average nuts per tree
2014 2015 2016 % Change
California 6,646 5,874 6,159 +4.9%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
6,7
37
6,7
83
7,5
61
7,1
00
7,6
51
5,5
36
6,1
27
6,1
14
5,4
00 5
,81
0
7,3
22
7,0
41
6,5
38
6,8
02
5,8
29
6,1
63
5,5
89 5
,95
6
7,3
53
7,0
48
6,6
86
6,6
46
5,8
74
6,1
59
CALIFORNIA ALMONDS Nuts per Tree, by District
Sacramento Valley San Joaquin Valley State
Almond Set per Tree by Variety,2014-2016
2014 2015 2016%
Change
Butte 7,443 7,034 7,051 +0.2
California Types 6,718 5,737 6,114 +6.6
Carmel 6,962 5,714 5,849 +2.4
Monterey 5,910 5,333 5,739 +7.6
Nonpareil 6,121 5,239 5,583 +6.6
Padre 7,989 9,037 7,788 -13.8
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7,067 7,079
5,136
5,583
7,482
6,571
6,1416,121
5,2395,583
NONPAREIL TYPE Nuts per Tree
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7,633 7,458
5,302
6,023
6,535
6,845 6,744
6,718
5,737
6,114
CALIFORNIA TYPE Nuts per Tree
1.41
1.67
1.45
1.79
1.57
1.471.43
1.58
1.72
1.49 1.48
1.36
1.45 1.431.48
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Lbs.
per
Acr
e
Gra
ms
Average Nut Weight (grams) vs. Yield
Kernel Weight: ALL Yield (Lbs/Ac)
9.86
10.47
9.72
10.4510.31
9.96
9.66
9.93
10.30
9.92 9.94
9.76
10.06
9.89 9.93
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lim
ete
rs
Year
CALIFORNIA ALMONDSKernel Thickness, mm
12.52
13.30
12.34
13.35
12.91
12.3912.30
13.1013.20
12.52 12.51
12.11
12.6912.58
12.44
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lim
ete
rs
Year
CALIFORNIA ALMONDSKernel Width, mm
98.9
97.6
98.4
97.797.3
98.5
99.0 98.998.7 98.7
99.198.9
98.7 98.8 98.8
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
Pe
rce
nt
Year
ALMONDS PERCENT SOUND NUTS2001-2016
21.54
22.2422.44
23.73
21.6421.81
21.60
22.96
23.38
21.84
21.40 21.35 21.42 21.43
22.09
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lim
ete
rs
Year
CALIFORNIA ALMONDSKernel Length, mm
Forecast and all StatisticsAvailable On-line
PRO Web: www.nass.usda.gov/ca
NASS Web: www.nass.usda.gov
PRO Contact: (916) 498-5161
2016 OM Almond Forecast
2.05 Billion Meat Pounds(+ 8 Percent)
Bearing Acres: 900,000 (Trees Planted 2013 and earlier)
Yield: 2,280 Pounds
(+ 7 Percent)
Presented by Chris Messer
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