presenation for sep'18 webinar - kotak securities · •inr depreciation is eating away...
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Market Outlook‐ By Rusmik Oza
‐ Sr. VP (Head of Fundamental Research)
5th Sep’18
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Performance: Regional markets
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Performance: Sectoral Indices
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Performance: Sectoral Indices
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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GDP: Expect 7.3% growth in FY19 (Vs 6.7% in FY18)
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
Q1‐FY19 GDP uptick is on account of improvement in Agriculture & Industry growth Base effect has helped Manufacturing report healthy growth of 13.5% (Vs ‐1.8% in Q1FY18) Expect GDP growth to moderate (i.e. Q2FY19: 7.3%; Q3FY19: 6.9% & Q4FY19: 7%).
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GST: Still below Budgetary target
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
GST revenues are way below the budgeted target Government needs a monthly run rate of Rs.1.15 tn for the rest of FY19. Our house target of GFD/GDP is ~3.5% Risk of higher borrowing & higher yields in 2H‐FY19
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IIP: 1H‐FY19 to report healthy nos. on base effect
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
Jun’18 IIP growth was 7% Vs 3.9% of May’18. Expect high IIP growth in 1H‐FY19. Core Sector (38% of IIP) grew by 6.6% in Jul’18 Vs. 6.7% in Jun’18 and 2.9% in Jul’17.
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Trade Deficit & CAD: Still below target
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
Monthly Trade Deficit has widened to USD 18 bn in Jul’18 CAD/GDP may rise to 2.6‐2.8% of GDP in FY19E (already close to 1.9%) This will increase borrowing cost for corporates and lead to further weakness in the INR
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Crude: Iran sanctions could lead to spike in crude prices
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Monsoon update: Below normal but reservoir levels better
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
Till 29 Aug’18, cumulative rainfall was 6.3% below normal.
Central , South & West = favourable rainfall As on 24th Aug’18, sowing is 1.3% lower than
same period of last year. Reservoir levels = 14% above long term avg.
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INR: Still looks weak (can depreciate further)
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Flows: Local Flows dominate led by MFs
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Source: Kotak PCG Sep’18 Market Outlook report
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Earnings: Excluding Banks Q1FY19 earnings is very healthy
Source: Kotak PCG Sep’18 Mthly Outlook report
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Nifty 50 Earnings: KIE estimates
Source: Bloomberg & Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) – from Sep’18 PCG Market Outlook report
KIE is building in Nifty earnings CAGR growth of 21% For FY18‐20E.
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Nifty 50 Earnings: FY19E has seen >10% cut in last 6 months
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) & PCG
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Earnings: KIE sectoral earnings estimates
On a 2 year CAGR basis, KIE expects Automobile, Banking, Cement, Consumers, Pharma and Metals & Mining to report better numbers
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) & PCG
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Market Breadth: 3 stocks contributed to ~50% rise in last one year
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) & PCG
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Market Breadth: FPIs & MFs underweight in top Nifty stocks
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) & PCG
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Nifty Valuations: On the higher side
Nifty valuations rich at 18.4x Fw PE but not in bubble zone. Very less room for re‐rating – given macro headwinds.
Source: Bloomberg & Kotak Private Client Group
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22.0Nifty 50: 1 Year Fw rolling PE chart
Close 200 WMA
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India Valuations: Market Cap to GDP above LTA of 78%
Source: Kotak PCG, Sep’18 Market Outlook report
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Sector Valuations: Automobile & Cement
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Sector Valuations: PSU and Pvt Sector Banks
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Sector Valuations: Consumer Staples & Discretionary
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Sector Valuations: Energy & Industrial
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Sector Valuations: Metals & Utilities
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Sector Valuations: Pharma & Technology
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
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Valuations: MSCI EM Vs MSCI India
Source: Bloomberg, Kotak PCG Research
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Valuations: MSCI India Premium over MSCI EM
Source: Bloomberg, Kotak PCG Research
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Valuations: Nifty 50 Vs Mid Cap
Source: Bloomberg, Kotak PCG Research
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Delivery: Percentage of delivery at 4 Year low
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE)
• Focus still remains on Trade war, currencies & global yields.
• Market breadth has been very shallow with poor delivery volumes.
• INR depreciation is eating away majority of profits made by FPIs in India.
• Earnings growth (mfg sector) will look good for 1H‐FY19E. 2H‐FHY19 = challenging
• Nifty & Mid Cap Index is trading at 18.3x & 21.3x, respectively on 1 Yr Fw EPS.
• Valuations look stretched due to rally in high quality & high PE stocks.
• Trading and tactical play market. Buy & Hold may not work for some time.
• Long term investors need to have 2‐3 year view & spread the buying in tranches.
• Focus on Good management, superior earnings growth & reasonable valuations.31
Observations & Investment Strategy
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Top Picks: For the month of Sep’18 (with one year view)
For detailed reports kindly visit Kotak Securities ‐ Private Client Group ‐ Path: Login to www.kotaksecurities.com > Research > Equity Reports > Stock Recommendation Snapshot
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Thank You
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Q&A Session
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