preparing for the twenty-first century. paul kennedy chapter ten: winners and losers in the...
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Preparing for the Twenty-first Century.
Paul Kennedy Chapter ten:
Winners and losers in the developing world
Winners and Losers in the Developing World
A review of successes and failures of developing nations in their pursuit of
improvement
Presentation Outline
Introduction -- Alicia Dalton Latin America -- Laurie Dressler Islamic world -- Emily Lambright African nations -- Stacey Hipp Conclusions -- Shanna Hamilton Class debate
Requirements for Success
Throughout history, four key issues set the guidelines for successful growth and
development:– Population– Education– Policy– Capital
Changing a “Have-not” Nation Into a “Have” Nation
Control of the populationpopulation growth rate Utmost importance of educationeducation
throughout the society Strong governmental policiespolicies Valuable natural resources and other
available capitalcapital
Gap Between Rich and Poor
Always been a separation between economically rich and poor nations
This gap is continuing to widen This yields two responses:
– Resentment by poorer peoples against prosperous societies
– A desire to emulate (imitate, or follow in one’s footsteps)
Example: Korea’s emulation of Japan
Unique Example -- Korea
During 1960’s, had little promise regarding development and economic improvement
Had very few resources Since 1960’s GNP increased 10 to 12 times Korea is becoming one of the richest
countries of all in the twenty-first century Success mainly due to the decreasing
population growth rate
Unique Example -- West Africa
Had more resources than Korea Increasing population growth, often due to
cultural and religious reasons Continuing to face chronic poverty, poor
health, malnutrition, and underdevelopment
Economic & Domestic Challenges ofLatin America
Countries
Population Changes
Bolivia, the Dominican republic & Haiti– Higher fertility rate; lower life expectancy
Brazil, Columbia, Mexico, Venezuela, & Costa Rica – Lower fertility rate; longer life expectancy
Argentina, chili & Uruguay– Demographic characteristics of developed
countries
Facts:
In the 1980’s, as east Asia was gaining ground, Latin America's condition worsened
Between 1980-1988 Latin America's real GDP per person steadily fell by an annual average 0.9%
With few exceptions, most countries now have per capita GDP's lower than those a decade earlier
What Went Wrong?
Government errors:– Pursued a policy of import substitution– Poured money into state-owned enterprises, large
bureaucracies, & oversized armed forces– Raised loans from western banks & international agencies
Industries were given protective tariffs, government subsidies & tax breaks
Lax financial policies & an increased reliance upon foreign borrowing
Results
Their products became less attractive abroad
Price inflation accelerated Their currency was practically worthless
Increased Debt
Some L.A. Countries are among the most indebted in the world
Most countries were incapable of repaying even the interestinterest on their loans
Loan defaults caused capital to dry up from western banks & a net capital outflow
180 million people (40 percent) are living in poverty
Educational system suffered neglect & lack of investment
Decay of educational structures left some universities without heat & some public schools without glass window panes
In Guatemala, approximately 63% of those ten years of age and older are illiterate
In areas of least education, increasing population erodes away resources
Educational Weaknesses
Political Progress
The coming of democratic regimes Stiff economic reforms Replacement of “state protectionism with
import liberalization” Conversion of budget deficits into surpluses
Detriments to U.S. Due to Latin America Relationship
U.S. Exports are hurt by Latin America's economic problems
Environment threatened by diminishing amazon & central American rain forests
Drug problem fueled by Latin America supplies– > 80% of cocaine & 90% of marijuana entering
U.S. Are made/moved through Latin America Population is altered by migration from Mexico,
the Caribbean, & central America
The World of Islam Faces Many Problems That Are Common to
Other Developing Countries
Population problems Shortages of resources Educational and technological deficiencies Regional conflicts that lessen political stability
Three Main Factors That Influence the Development Rate
of the Middle East: Uneven location of oil in the middle east
issues of wars and conflicts Issues of war and conflict Certain regimes’ resentment of global forces for
change
Oil Distribution
A division between the “super rich” and the “dreadfully poor”
Large neighbors (Iraq and Iran) are jealous of less populated and oil-rich countries (Kuwait 2 million and united Arab emirates 1.3 million people)
Oil Distribution (Continued)
The massive assistance given to “have-nots” by certain “haves” (Saudi Arabia to Iraq) causes hostility among neighbors
War and Conflict:
“More than any other developing region, then, the future of the middle east and north Africa is affected by issues or war and conflict.”
Billions of dollars of armaments have been supplied to the region by western, soviet, and Chinese producers
Global Change
“. . .The regimes themselves stand in angry resentment of global forces for change. . .”
Global Change (Continued)
Some people recommend wide-scale education to combat this like Japan and Scandinavia did
Few females are educated in strongly fundamentalist areas
Many educated Arabs immigrate to other countries for occupational opportunities
Global Change (Continued)
Religious intolerance, technological backwardness, and a feudal cast of mind are blamed by some for the region’s reluctance to change
Others believe that the successful expansionist actions of Europe helped Islam's retreat into itself
“Clearly , Islam suffers from many self-inflicted problems. But if much of its angry, confrontational stance toward the international order of today is due to a long-held fear of being swallowed up by the west, not much in the way of change can be expected until fear is dissipated.”
Sub-Sahara Africa
“The third world’s third world”
Optimism for the Future
In the 1960’s many of the countries of Africa were gaining their independence.
There was an overwhelming belief that independence would bring with it economic prosperity.
There were hopes of building industries, improving the infrastructure, and increasing their self sufficiency.
Inhibitions to Success
Population Increases
Importation of improvements in medicine– Decreased infant mortality rates– Longer life span
Cultural and religious beliefs– Achievement of higher social status due to
having larger families– Women not bearing numerous children were
believed to be cursed
Insubstantial Agricultural Productivity
Farm output has not increased in relation to the population
Larger numbers of grazing cattle and sheep have caused substantial deforestation and topsoil erosion
Africans were forced to rely on the importation of foodstuffs
Increased Debt
Optimism and ambition of African nationalists led to increased debt as they attempted to build new airports, harbors, and factories
Large populations necessitated increased borrowing to purchase imported foodstuffs
Western lenders began to deny giving more loans to many African countries as they were unable to collect on past debt
Political Unrest
European colonialists divided up the African continent with no regard for the historical boundaries that had been set by previous tribes and groups
Warring groups were forced to live under the same governments
Few governments were able to hold onto power long enough to achieve any major accomplishments
Inadequate Education
While population continues to increase, there has been no increase in the attempts to educate the young Africans
African nations have typically fallen far behind other nations of the world in providing education for its citizens
With many eager to learn, there is little opportunity for them to continue their education beyond primary school
Angola Vs. Sweden
Less than 2.4 million attend primary schools
570,000 attend secondary schools
179,000 attend institutions of higher education
2.4 million children attend primary schools
153,000 attend secondary schools
4,700 attend institutions of higher education
Western Intervention
Advantages
Temporary relief from starvation for a number of starving Africans
Renewed hope for the future prosperity of sub-Saharan Africa
Hard currency to buy imported goods Global intervention to promote peace
among warring groups
Disadvantages
Compliance with certain stipulations required by the awarding state or institution
Promise to maintain favorable economic relations with the awarding nations that may prove unfavorable to Africa
Continued dependence on foreign aid Deeper debt
What Is the Bottom Line????
There is a dynamic interplay of factors that effects the growth and development of countries
Population, policy, education and capital are the big four -- these factors distinguish the “haves” from the “have-nots”
Education
Education is the single most important factor that has a huge effect on social, political, and technological development– Education has the ability to control population
growth– Education can increase environmental quality– Education can reduce the transmission of disease
thus increasing the overall productivity of a country or community
Education (Continued)
Population, policy and lack of capital effect the availability and quality of education– In 1993 statistics showed that there were 2,635
Scientist per million Americans, but in Latin America there were only 209 Scientist per million Latin’s. This illustrates the differences in availability of education.
Education is proportional to technological advancements
Population Unchecked population growth is a common denominator
in Latin America, The Middle East and Africa– Statistics show that Africa’s population will double every 20
years None of these countries produce enough resources to
sustain their rate of growth – Large populations decreases the availability and quality of
employment and quality lives– Inadequate resources generates impoverished conditions this
increases the incident of disease
Policy
Strong political framework within which economic growth is fostered is a key element in the development of any country – One of the things that made Korea and
Taiwan's development successful was the institution of strict policy governing spending (imports) and investments
Policy (Continued)
– Differences in economic policy Africa and other primary commodity producing
countries are for higher raw material prices where as the export oriented manufacturing nations of east Asia sought to keep prices low
Latin America, The middle east, and Africa have not developed governments that successfully implement plans for technological and social development
Capital
Availability of capital increases the opportunities of developing countries
High levels of national savings employing fiscal measures, taxes and import controls to encourage personal saving .
Large amounts of low interest capital made available for investment in manufacture and commerce.
Capital (Continued)
What did Taiwan and Korea Do???– Increased personal savings: in 1987 Taiwan saved
approximately 38.8 % of its money, comparatively America saved approximately 12.7%
– Both Korea and Taiwan were committed to exporting; their managers and work forces were trained to produce what foreign customers wanted.
– The value of their currency was kept to increase exports and decrease imports
…..And Finally
“The developing countries response to the broad forces for global change is going to be uneven. While some are in distress others are booming.”
We can only expect that the financial and communications revolution and the emergence of multinational corporations will increase the gap between the rich and the poor
…And Finally (Continued)
In sum, as we move into the 21st century the developed economies appear to have all of the trump cards in their hands - capital, technology, control of communications, and surplus of foodstuffs - and if anything, their advantages are growing because technology is eroding the value of labor.
“The Story of Winners and Losers will continue only this
time modern communication will remind us all of the growing
disparity”.
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