predicting winter precipitation
Post on 09-Jan-2016
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Predicting Winter Precipitation
By: Tony Cummings
Problem
• Winter precipitation is major issue
• Georgia is not as prepared
• Seasonal forecast would be helpful
• Already forecast seasonal temperatures
Data
• Same data as undergraduate research
• KATL and KAHN from 1973-2007
• ASOS data
• Used Matlab script to decode
Methodology
• Decode Data• Analyze data
– Linear Correlations [corr()]
– Periodograms [periodogram()]
– Cross spectral Analysis• cspd()• mscohere()• angle() .
Correlations
Periodograms
Zoomed Periodograms
Cross Spectral Analysis
Phase angle
Conclusions
• Temps and Hours of precipitation are statistically correlated
• Strong 6 year precipitation cycle
• Cross Spectral Analysis results mixed
• Precipitation predictions similar to temperature predictions
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