predicting the turn - high alpha speaker series with dave knox

Predicting the TurnDave Knox, WPP Ventures, @daveknox

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P R E D I C T I N G T H E T U R N

D A V E K N O X

V S

V S

Digital Marketing

Digital Business ModelsV S

Now it’s about

managing disruption.

It used to be about fighting over market

share.

Now it’s digital as a model.

It used to bedigital as media.

Now it’s about infinite shelves &

free shipping. 

It used tobe about

shelf space.

“There is a dramatic leveling of the playing field. The advantages of scale

that guaranteed success in the post-war era just don’t matter very much when

advertising is cheap, shelf space is infinite, and shipping is free.”

The State of Technology at the End of 2016

T H E F L O P T H E T U R N T H E R I V E R

I

Venture as R&D

II

Dominos

III

Total Available Market

IV

Market Intelligence

I

Venture as

R&D

II. Dominos III. Total Available Market IV. Market IntelligenceI. Venture as R&D

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available MarketI. Venture as R&D

4.3B

15B

II. Dominos IV. Market Intelligence

PhD and top technical talent are increasingly looking to startups for the

opportunity to be part of the next big idea.

III. Total Available MarketI. Venture as R&D

II

DOMINOS

I. Venture as R&D IV. Market IntelligenceII. Dominos III. Total Available Market

29 Dominos

I. Venture as R&D IV. Market Intelligence

Lorne Whitehead

III. Total Available MarketII. Dominos

IV. Market IntelligenceI. Venture as R&D

The speed of change is always accelerating. And the dominos will continue to fall closer and

closer to your bottom line.

III. Total Available MarketII. Dominos

III

Total Available Market

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market Intelligence

1920 2016

III. Total Available Market

“Saying that you’re aiming for x% of a $ybn industry is unambitious — great

companies change the y, not the x.”

Benedict Evans - “Ways to Think About Market Size”

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

IV

Market Intelligence

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

Subscription e-Commerce First Fundings

2010 2011 2012 2013

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos

“Develop a sense of how and when the future will happen, and share

that foresight with key stakeholders throughout the corporation. The ability to see the future of your

industry before it happens.”

Scott Lenet - co-founder of Touchdown Ventures

III. Total Available Market IV. Market Intelligence

T H E T U R N

How do you Predict the Turn?

“We all know that if you swing for the fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but you’re also going to hit some home runs.

The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a

truncated outcome distribution…

Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter

…When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most runs you

can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you

can score 1,000 runs.” 

Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter

# T H E T U R N

InnovationDriven

AcquisitionInvest

in ChangePartners

in InnovationDisrupt

the Disruptors

“You can fight the end and that will probably not turn out well. Or you can acknowledge that

this is happening. This is real, serious, and going to change your world.”

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

John Zimmer - President and co-founder, Lyft

# T H E T U R N

Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the DisruptorsInnovation Driven Acquisition

# T H E T U R N

MapMyFitness

Endomondo

MyFitnessPal

“We invest on the side of change.”Marc Andreessen

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Partners in Innovation

“Startups are like water. They will take the easiest path down the hill.”

Phin Barnes - First Round Capital

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Partners in InnovationInnovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

“Everybody talks about disruption until you actually f***ing disrupt something and then

everybody freaks the f*** out.”

Shane Smith - Founder of Vice Media

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

C O M P A N Y A C Q U I R E I N V E S T P A R T N E R D I S R U P T T H E D I S R U P T O R

V E N T U R E S H A T C H - H O U S E

"The sooner you stop fighting the present, the sooner you can get to work on figuring out the future."

David Heinemeier Hansson - Creator of Ruby on Rails