predicting presidential election results

Dan Berry

University High School

Morgantown, West Virginia

Unit I Geography: Its Nature and Perspective

F. Sources of geographical ideas and data: the field, census data

Unit II Population

A. Geographical analysis of population

3. Patterns of composition: age, sex, race, and ethnicity

Unit VII Political Organization of Space

C. Changes in political-territorial arrangements

4. Electoral geography, including gerrymandering

Texas CountiesLeaning ClintonLeaning ObamaToss-Up

0 300 Miles N

EW

S

AP US Government Class University High School

March 4 Primary PredictionClinton vs. Obama

Mr. Berry's 4th and 6th Periods

Election Results (cnn.com)

Results

•Students finished completing the data in three fifty-minute class periods.

•The only data students had to work with was that data provided by the 2000 Census which came in the GIS software. The same data can be acquired by going to the US Census Bureau web site.

Weaknesses

•Student Bias: Most of the liberal students may have leaned some of these counties towards Obama.

•While Latinos were leaning towards Clinton, counties with a large young Latino cohort were given to Obama, when in reality those counties voted for Clinton.

•Obama did not get as many suburban counties.

Strengths

•Students loved this activity. It made them feel like Carl Rove and James Carville.

Step 1: Go to the www.census.gov

Step 2: Click on State and County Quick Facts

Step 3: Select a state

Step 4: Select a County

Step 5: Copy the demographic data listed for each county

•This activity may be time-consuming, therefore have students do much of the work outside of class.

•If you have GIS software, then students can enter the data they have collected to create a map.

•If you do not have GIS software, then be sure to secure an outline map of a state with county divisions (included in this lesson).

•There can be many variations with this activity (you may even want to predict results at the precinct level).

•If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me:

dnlberry@access.k12.wv.us

If you want to extend this activity, continue to the next slides.

Step 1: Go to google.com and type esri awx

Step 2: Select ArcWeb Explorer

Step 3: Wait for the world map to download

Step 4: Click on “Find” and type in one of the following options listed in the find box.

Step 5: If you selected a street address, city, and state, it will be marked with a pin.

Step 6: Select “Map Types” as listed below.

Step 7: Select “Data Map” to examine demographic features at a smaller scale.

Step 8: A “Hybrid Map” combines the street map and satellite map.

Step 9: The Navigation feature shows a closer look.