post-harvest predictive microbiology & process risk models microbial food safety research unit...
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Post-Harvest Predictive Post-Harvest Predictive Microbiology & Process Risk Microbiology & Process Risk
ModelsModels
Microbial Food Safety Research UnitEastern Regional Research Center
North Atlantic Area
Risk assessments,food and technology
validations
Applied Research Program
FSISFSIS FDAFDA IndustryIndustry
Data Gaps
Research
Food validations andfeedback about the PMP
Research Scientists & Program
• Rolando FloresRolando Flores
• Tom OscarTom Oscar
• Mark TamplinMark Tamplin
• Laura ZaikaLaura Zaika
• Peg ColemanPeg Coleman
Process risk models
Pathogen fate on poultry
Validation of PMP
Competitive inhibition
Inoculum level & boundaries
Additional Research
Development of models for: pathogen behavior in modified
atmospheres
pathogen behavior under fluctuating
temperatures
pathogen virulence
Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP)Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP)
• PMP effort initiated by Drs. Robert Buchanan and Richard Whiting at the ERRC
• PMP represents a comprehensive set of broth-based models
Organism Temperature °C pH NaCl % or Aw NaNO2 mg/kgAeromonas hydrophila 5.0 - 42.0 5.3 - 7.3 0.5 - 3.5 0 - 150Bacillus cereus 5.0 - 42.0 4.7 - 7.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150Escherichia coli O157:H7 5.0 - 42.0 4.5 - 8.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150Listeria monocytogenes 4.0 - 37.0 4.5 - 7.5 0.5 - 10.5 0 - 150Listeria monocytogenes 4.0 - 37.0 4.5 - 7.5 0.928 - 0.997 0 - 150Salmonella spp. 10.0 - 30.0 5.6 - 6.8 0.5 - 4.5 - Shigella flexneri 10.0 - 37.0 5.0 - 7.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150Staphylococcus aureus 10.0 - 42.0 4.5 - 9.0 0.5 - 12.5 0 - 150Yersinia enterocolitica 5.0 - 42.0 4.5 - 8.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150
Organism Temperature °C pH NaCl % or Aw NaNO2 mg/kg Na2P2O7 %Aeromonas hydrophila 5.0 - 30.0 5.3 - 7.3 0.5 - 3.5 0 - 150 - Bacillus cereus 5.0 - 42.0 5.0 - 9.0 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150 - Clostridium perfringens 19.0 - 37.0 6.0 - 6.5 1.0 - 3.0 - 0.1 - 0.2Escherichia coli O157:H7 5.0 - 42.0 4.5 - 8.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150 - Listeria monocytogenes 4.0 - 37.0 4.5 - 8.0 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150 - Listeria monocytogenes 4.0 - 37.0 4.5 - 8.0 0.970 - 0.997 0 - 150 - Shigella flexneri 12.0 - 37.0 5.5 - 7.5 1.5 - 4.0 0 - 150 - Staphylococcus aureus 12.0 - 42.0 5.3 - 9.0 0.5 - 16.5 0 - 150 -
Individual Growth Models*Aerobic conditions
Aerobic conditions
* Multiple Growth Plots use the lowest and highest values for all organisms. Organisms are eliminated from graph when any condition goes outside modeled range.
Anaerobic conditions
• Current version - 5.1
• Delivered via Internet and CDROM
• ~ 1,000 downloads/year
www.arserrc.gov/mfs/
Pathogen Modeling ProgramPathogen Modeling Program
Advancing the Pathogen Modeling Program
• 5.1 6.0 (summer 2001)• Internet stand-alone version• Models of cumulative lethality• Integration with risk assessment software• Expert system• More efficient Web/CD distribution of data• Enhancing two-way interactions with
industry and FSIS technical staff
Enhanced Pathogen Modeling Program
Expanded Menu Structure
2 New Heat Inactivation Models
2 New Cooling – Growth Models
New Editing Functions Reference Database Improved Help System
• Online Documentation and Reference Database
•Excel® Type Tables and Charts•Copy/Paste to OLE Applications•Save Scenario Files
•Input Options• °F or °C• Mono- or Biphasic Linear Temperature profiles or •Time vs. Temperature data input.
•Output• Growth Curves and •Temperature profiles.• Tables and Graphs may be copied and pasted into other applications.
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