post-covid19 urban and regional development: strategic
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Post-Covid19 Urban and Regional
Development: Strategic Tasks and Trends
Arturo G. Corpuz
PIEP
7 November 2020
Post-Covid19 Urban and Regional Development:
Strategic Tasks and Trends
• Towards and soon after the end of the pandemic,
starting with cities.
• Extended post-Covid19 view.
https://www.lindahall.org/joseph-bazalgette/ https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b3/dd/5d/b3dd5d1108e9ba7b667dd89972c43472.jpg
Thames embankment (London)Response to cholera epidemic, provided
sewers, subway, flood protection,
pedestrian walkways
• Cities have always been shaped
or influenced by pandemics and
disasters.
Subsidized public
housing (NY):Built to prevent
epidemics in
crowded, substandard
tenements in 1930s. (Nevius 2020)
Creation of Hyderabad in 1591:To avoid epidemics and lack of water
supply. (Nanisetti 2020)
Coastal Plan
Inland Plan
1
5
715
16
Hispanic Urban Plans
According to the Ordinances of
1573 (Reed 1978)
1 Plaza Major
2 Plaza
3 Street with arcade
4 Cathedral
5 Hospital: non-contagious diseases
6 Monastery or convent
7 Hospital: contagious diseases
8 Custom house
9 Arsenal
10 Cabildo (tribunal)
11 Commons
12 Pasture land
13 Irrigated land
14 Cultivated land
15 Slaughterhouses
16 Tanneries
17 Fisheries
18 Parish church and convent
1
5
7
15 16
Prevailing
Wind
Epidemics in colonial
Philippines caused/related to:
• Improvements in transport
• Emergence of a sex trade
• Crop specialization
• Extensive changes in land
management (De Bevoise 1995)
Pandemics are here to stay.
https://www.pinterest.ph/pin/414331234463083073/https://www.google.com/search?q=epidemics+in+the+philippines&rlz=1C1CHBF_enPH862PH862&sxsrf=ALeKk03UMLtXZVIPYUmZGBwEkCf1UcdVkA:1604665446077&source
=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj27pXP9O3sAhWIyIsBHXovAw8Q_AUoAXoECAYQAw&biw=1536&bih=754&dpr=1.25#imgrc=KbMDMLSAwiBdIM&imgdii=qXqtilqs-qel-M
• How should we approach the planning and building of
cities, anticipating future pandemics, post-Covid19?
1 Potential economic losses resulting from pandemics justify large
investments to prevent or mitigate them.
1H 2020 impact of Covid-19 on:
▪ GDP = P1.6T
▪ Loss sales = P5.2T (NEDA Oct 2020)
2 Its not just about making cities pandemic-resistant but, more
broadly, how they can thrive in the competitive global
environment and contribute to national/regional development.
• How should we approach the planning and
building of cities, anticipating
future pandemics, post-Covid19?
3 The essence of cities is density.▪ Positive: scale and agglomeration economies (e.g.
15% premium as city population doubles)
▪ Negative: crime, pollution, disease, pandemics, etc.
▪ Successful cities maximize positive and minimize
negative.
4 Objective: derive the economic benefits of
density while reducing threats of pandemics
arising from density.
https://www.visitphilippines.org/discover-it/cebu-city/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davao_City#/media/File:DavaoSkyline.jpghttps://www.robertharding.com/preview/1113-92761/skyline-makati-city-manila-philippines-asia/
Global Health Security Index
Ranking, Top rank, ASEAN
6, 2019 (100=highest)
Rank Country Score
1 USA 83.5
6 Thailand 73.2
18 Malaysia 62.2
24 Singapore 58.7
30 Indonesia 56.6
50 Vietnam 49.1
53 Philippines 47.6
Source: GHS Index 2019
• We have learned (from distant and recent past
experiences) to focus on the following:
1 Build up and reform the
healthcare system.
▪ Ability to prevent, detect,
isolate, treat, recovery
▪ Hard and soft
infrastructure
Key sectors
▪ Public transport and logistics
▪ Digital connectivity
▪ Building/facility design
▪ Affordable housing
▪ Accessible parks, open spaces
▪ Urban sanitation/utilities
▪ Food security
▪ Renewable energy
2 Safely eliminate/reduce the
need for physical distancing
(density).
▪ By managing minimum
requirements
▪ By compensating through
interventions (e.g. PPEs)
▪ By overcoming distance
(through digital technology)3 Rebuild and reform
(Never waste a crisis.)
• We have learned (from distant and recent past
experiences) to focus on the following:
Rebuild and Reform• Extends well beyond the pandemic
• Can be complex and multisectoral
Example: Affordable housing (to replace squatter/slum housing)
• Ultimately a problem of low income and not of
housing
• Pre-Covid issue, e.g.:
Apple’s Shifting Supply Chain Creates Boomtowns in Rural Vietnam Bloomberg Technology 2020
Affordable land
Land conversion
Infrastructure, service support, etc.
Employment opportunities
Investments (manufacturing)
FDI competitiveness
▪ Public transport and logistics• Single most important element of a productive city; with or
without a pandemic, cities are not feasible without mass
transit.
• Still a long way to go.
▪ Digital connectivity• E-commerce, e-education, work from home, etc.
• Indispensable; especially critical during pandemics.
• Promising recent developments although still a lot to do.
▪ Building/facility design• Incorporate anti-pandemic measures, e.g. natural vent,
disinfection, no-contact activities, WFH provisions, flexibility of
use.
• Regulatory and market-driven.
https://www.ns-businesshub.com/technology/5g-rural-internet/https://wheels.com.ph/centro-launches-anti-covid-19-dividers-for-uv/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/03/world-restaurants-coronavirus-adaptation/
▪ Accessible and quality parks and public spaces
https://explora.ph/note/234/la-mesa-ecopark-attractions
*Author’s estimate, 2020.; publicly accessible parks, open spaces, courtyards, sports and recreation spaces
(uncovered, min 500sqm)
Parks
(hectares)
Hectares/
1000 pop
Metro Manila 1,290* 0.10
HLURB reqmt 7,082 0.55
HK Urban (2018) 2,800 0.22
HK (2018) 81,700 6.34
Singapore (2011) 84,990 6.60
In Metro Manila, we need
57+ sqkm of new parks/
open spaces to comply
with HLURB standard:
• Recover, improve and
maintain public easements
and ROWs.
• Improve access and quality of
existing parks.
• Encourage development of
publicly accessible private
parks.
• We have a good idea of what we need to do; a lot of it is
catching up on things we should have done in the past.
• Overall, we have a long way to go.
http://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/illustration/airports-homepage.jpghttp://progressbangladesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Power-transmission-line.jpghttps://businessmirror.com.ph/2018/03/18/when-can-commuters-find-light-at-the-end-of-the-mrt-3-tunnel/ https://healthysd.gov/screens-not-for-babies/
https://www.123rf.com/photo_122111699_stock-illustration-philippines-5g-network-industrial-illustration-big-cellular-tower-or-mast-on-modern-background-with-.htmlhttp://www.dmcihomesresidences.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/original-20161018141240.jpg
• What can we expect in the next decades?
• What are some fundamental trends that are likely to
drive or significantly influence our plans and
developments?
▪ Urbanization will continue and stabilize (~70%) towards end of 21st
century.By 2045/2050:
• Urban pop could increase by 70% to
87M (60% of total pop).
• Land area occupied by urban pop
could double or even triple. (Author’s
estimate.)
• More land conversion is inevitable.
• Consider density vs conversion
tradeoffs (including pandemic
threats).
▪ Growth of core cities of metros will
decline, but functionally (i.e. labor
market), the metros will continue to
expand. E.g.:
• Angeles-Metro Manila-Batangas City
• Carcar-Cebu City-Danao
• Digos-Davao City-Tagum
• Laguindingan-Cag de Oro-Villanueva
• Sibulan-Dumaguete-Bacong
More complex (inter- and intra-LGU)
planning and institutional implications
(affecting pandemic and DRR measures.)
▪ Large regional centers will continue to grow faster
than Metro Manila and other cities.
▪ Increasing number of metro areas, containing an
increasing proportion of the total population (42%
as of 2015).
Metro Manila
Regional Centers
Top 15 Metro/Urban Areas
Annual Pop Growth Rate,
2010-2015 (%)Source: Derived from PSA Census 2015
1 Metro Manila 1.67
2 M Dasmarinas 3.51
3 M Cebu 2.22
4 M Calamba 3.53
5 M Antipolo 2.20
6 M Davao 2.37
7 M Malolos 2.13
8 M Angeles 2.73
9 Zamboanga City 1.32
10 M Cagayan de Oro 2.44
11 M Bacolod 1.61
12 M Lipa 4.00
13 M Iloilo 1.54
14 M San Mateo 5.04
15 General Santos 2.01
Improving the quality
of density will become
even more important
(especially vs
pandemics and other
disasters).
▪ There will be winners and losers as
technology, markets and geopolitics interact.
https://www.kearney.com/strategy-and-top-line-transformation/article?/a/a-question-of-talent-how-
human-capital-will-determine-the-next-global-leaders
Large cities with the richest
exchanges of ideas among highly
educated workers enjoy the highest
returns. (Hendrickson and Muro 2020)
Top Rank and Asian Cities in Top 40 Global Startup Ecosystems 1 Silicon Valley 4 Beijing 8 Shanghai 15 Tokyo 17 Singapore 20 Seoul 22 Shenzhen 26 Bangalore 28 Hangzhou 29 Hong Kong 36-40 Delhi Source: The Global Startup Ecosystem Report 2020
Top Asian Cities in 100 Emerging Global Startup Ecosystems 1 Mumbai 2 Jakarta 5 Guangzhou 11 Kuala Lumpur 16 Istanbul 21-30 Chengdu Taipei Wuxi 31-40 Manila
Nanjing Xiamen
51-60 Bangkok Chennai
Wuhan 71-80 Hyderabad Ho Chi Minh City Pune 91-100 Osaka
Attract talent and spur innovation through
cities with good quality density:
Convergence + Collision = Innovation (Woo 2020)
The internet is reinforcing concentration instead of dispersion.
“Winner takes most.”
(Even during the pandemic.)
▪ Regional planning will be more technically
relevant . . .
• Pandemics and other disasters
• Connectivity and markets
• Shared services and infrastructure
• Protection of prime agricultural and environmentally
critical lands
• Climate change
. . . But corresponding institutional structures have
to be put in place.
▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be
more influential in decision-making.
Lessons from the pandemic:
1. Location matters.
UP Center for Environmental Informatics
▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be
more influential in decision-making.
Lessons from the pandemic:
1. Location matters.
2. Use of science (evidence-based) and
economics (tradeoffs) increases
credibility and greater involvement in
decision-making that matters.
StD = Standard
Distances
Covid-19 Infections
• 14April-06May infections evenly distributed relative to centroid.
• Suggests lockdown “froze” the distribution (not the infections).
▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be
more influential in decision-making.
Lessons from the pandemic:
1. Location matters.
2. Use of science (evidence-based) and
economics (tradeoffs) increases credibility
and greater involvement in decision-making
that matters.
3. Communication is critical (with decision-
makers and the public).
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/19/trump-coronavirus-rally-open-up-lock-down-hydroxychloroquine-266476 http://thephilippinepost.com/pres-duterte-urges-covid-19-survivors-to-donate-blood/
▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be
more influential in decision-making.
Lessons from the pandemic:
1. Location matters.
2. Use of science (evidence-based) and
economics (tradeoffs) increases credibility
and greater involvement in decision-making
that matters.
3. Communication is critical.
4. You can’t do it all by yourself. Tap and
recognize the experts.
https://www.rappler.com/nation/magalong-says-contact-tracing-champion-every-lgu-urgently-needed
Lead from behind(Being non-political is a political choice)
▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be
more influential in decision-making.
Lessons from the pandemic:
1. Location matters.
2. Use of science (evidence-based) and
economics (tradeoffs) increases credibility
and greater involvement in decision-making
that matters.
3. Communication is critical.
4. You can’t do it all by yourself. Tap and
recognize the experts.
Thank you
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