population aphg – spring 2014
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Population Population
APHG – Spring 2014APHG – Spring 2014 http://www.poodwaddle.com/clocks/worldclock
If we shrank the Earth's population to a village of 100 If we shrank the Earth's population to a village of 100 people,people, with all of the existing human ratios with all of the existing human ratios
remaining the same,remaining the same, there would be:there would be:
57 Asians 57 Asians 52 females 52 females 21 Europeans 21 Europeans 48 males 48 males 8 Africans 8 Africans 14 people from the Western Hemisphere14 people from the Western Hemisphere (north and south) (north and south) 30 Christians 6 U.S. citizens holding30 Christians 6 U.S. citizens holding70 Non-Christians 70 Non-Christians 60% of the worlds wealth 60% of the worlds wealth 70 unable to read 1 with a college education70 unable to read 1 with a college education
80 living in substandard housing80 living in substandard housing 1 with their own computer1 with their own computer 50 suffering from malnutrition50 suffering from malnutrition 1 near death 1 near death 1 near birth 1 near birth Source: Mercy Housing Midwest, Omaha, NE.Source: Mercy Housing Midwest, Omaha, NE.
Critical Issues in Population Critical Issues in Population GeographyGeography
• More people are alive today than at any other time More people are alive today than at any other time in human history.in human history.
• The world’s population increased at a faster rate The world’s population increased at a faster rate during the second half of the 20during the second half of the 20thth century than ever century than ever before.before.
• Virtually all population growth today occurs in less Virtually all population growth today occurs in less developed countries (LDCs)developed countries (LDCs)
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_9SutNmfFk – – Population HeartbeatPopulation Heartbeat
Key Population IssuesKey Population IssuesKey Issues Key Issues
1.1. Where is the world's population distributed?Where is the world's population distributed?
2.2. Where has the world's population Where has the world's population increased? increased?
3.3. Why is population increasing at different Why is population increasing at different rates in different countries? rates in different countries?
4. Why might the world face an overpopulation 4. Why might the world face an overpopulation problem?problem?
Population DistributionPopulation Distributionhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0- 7 Billion 7 Billion
Key Issue 1: Key Issue 1: Where Is the World's Population Where Is the World's Population Distributed?Distributed? Population concentrationsPopulation concentrations Sparsely populated regionsSparsely populated regions Population densityPopulation density
The scientific study of population The scientific study of population characteristics is characteristics is demographydemography. . At a global At a global scalescale,,. .. . .. the world's so-called the world's so-called overpopulationoverpopulation problem is not simply a matter of the total problem is not simply a matter of the total number of people . . . but the relationship number of people . . . but the relationship between number of people and available resources. between number of people and available resources. At a local scale, geographers find that At a local scale, geographers find that overpopulation is a threat in some regions of the overpopulation is a threat in some regions of the world but not in others. Regions with the most world but not in others. Regions with the most people are not necessarily the same as the people are not necessarily the same as the regions with an unfavorable balance between regions with an unfavorable balance between population and resources.population and resources.
• Population Concentrations– 2/3 of the world’s inhabitants are clustered in
four regions.• East Asia• South Asia• Southeast Asia• Europe
– Site and Situation of Population Clusters• Low-lying areas with fertile soil and temperate
climate• Near an ocean or near a river with easy access to
an ocean.
Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
Population DistributionPopulation Distribution
World Population DistributionWorld Population Distribution
World population is very unevenly distributed across the Earth’s surfaceWorld population is very unevenly distributed across the Earth’s surface and it can be compared to climate distribution.and it can be compared to climate distribution.
World Population CartogramWorld Population Cartogram
This cartogram displays countries by the size of their populationThis cartogram displays countries by the size of their population rather than their land area. rather than their land area.
(Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.)(Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.)
Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
• Sparsely Populated Regions– Humans avoid clustering in certain physical
environments.• Dry Lands• Wet Lands• Cold Lands• High Lands
– Places considered too harsh for occupancy have diminished over time.
• Places of permanent human settlement are termed the ecumene.
Expansion of the EcumeneExpansion of the Ecumene 5000 B.C.–A.D. 1900 5000 B.C.–A.D. 1900
The ecumene, or the portion of the Earth with permanent human settlement, hasThe ecumene, or the portion of the Earth with permanent human settlement, has expanded to cover most of the world’s land area.expanded to cover most of the world’s land area.
World Population Distribution by Region World Population Distribution by Region 1800–20501800–2050
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg
• Population Density– Density can be computed in up to three ways for
a place.1. Arithmetic Density
– Total number of objects in an area– Computation: Divide the population by the land area
2. Physiological Density– Number of people supported by a unit area of arable land– Computation: Divide the population by the arable land area
3. Agricultural Density– Ratio of the number of farmers to amount of arable land– Computation: Divide the population of farmers by the arable
land area
Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
Population DensityPopulation Density
Arithmetic Density – the total number of people Arithmetic Density – the total number of people divided by the total land area ( This measure is also divided by the total land area ( This measure is also called population density.) Arithmetic density enables called population density.) Arithmetic density enables geographers to make approximate comparisons of geographers to make approximate comparisons of the number of people trying to live on a given piece of the number of people trying to live on a given piece of land in different regions of the world. land in different regions of the world.
There is There is nono relationship between arithmetic density relationship between arithmetic density and standard of living. and standard of living.
Arithmetic Population DensityArithmetic Population Density
Arithmetic population density is the number of people per total land area.Arithmetic population density is the number of people per total land area.The highest densities are found in parts of Asia and Europe.The highest densities are found in parts of Asia and Europe.
Physiological DensityPhysiological Density
A more meaningful population measure is by looking A more meaningful population measure is by looking at the number of people per area of a certain type of at the number of people per area of a certain type of land in a region. land in a region.
The number of people supported by a unit of arable The number of people supported by a unit of arable land is called the land is called the physiologicalphysiological density. density.
Comparing physiological and arithmetic densities Comparing physiological and arithmetic densities helps geographers to understand the capacity if the helps geographers to understand the capacity if the land to yield enough food for the needs of people. land to yield enough food for the needs of people.
Physiological DensityPhysiological Density
Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is goodPhysiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is good measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society.measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society.
Agriculture DensityAgriculture Density
Two countries can have similar physiological Two countries can have similar physiological densities, but they may produce different amounts of densities, but they may produce different amounts of food because of different economic conditions. food because of different economic conditions. Agriculture density Agriculture density is the ratio of the number of is the ratio of the number of farmers to the amount of arable land. farmers to the amount of arable land.
The Netherlands has a much higher physiological The Netherlands has a much higher physiological density than does India but a lower agriculture density than does India but a lower agriculture density.density.
Agriculture density is directly related to standard of Agriculture density is directly related to standard of livingliving
Effect of Migration on Effect of Migration on Population GrowthPopulation Growth
Q&A. How densely populated is the planet?Q&A. How densely populated is the planet?
11stst Western Europe, 433 people per sq. mile Western Europe, 433 people per sq. mile 22ndnd Caribbean, 417 people per sq. mile Caribbean, 417 people per sq. mile Least densely settled region is Oceania: 10 people Least densely settled region is Oceania: 10 people
per sq. mileper sq. mile United States is 78 people per sq. mileUnited States is 78 people per sq. mile
Q. Does high density in urbanized areas equal Q. Does high density in urbanized areas equal environmental degradation????environmental degradation????
Population Densities, 2003Population Densities, 2003
RegionRegion Pop./Sq. MilePop./Sq. MileWorldWorld 122122 CaribbeanCaribbean 417417More Developed CountriesMore Developed Countries 6161 South AmericaSouth America 5252Less Developed CountriesLess Developed Countries 160160 AsiaAsia 312312AfricaAfrica 7474 Western AsiaWestern Asia 112112Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa 7676 South Central AsiaSouth Central Asia 376376Northern AfricaNorthern Africa 5757 Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia 313313Western AfricaWestern Africa 108108 East AsiaEast Asia 334334Eastern AfricaEastern Africa 107107 EuropeEurope 8282Middle AfricaMiddle Africa 4141 Northern EuropeNorthern Europe 141141Southern AfricaSouthern Africa 4949 Western EuropeWestern Europe 433433North AmericaNorth America 4242 Eastern EuropeEastern Europe 4141Latin AmericaLatin America 6868 Southern EuropeSouthern Europe 288288Central AmericaCentral America 150150 OceaniaOceania 1010
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2003 World Population DataSource: Population Reference Bureau, 2003 World Population Data
Key Issue 2Why is Global Population
Increasing?
Why Is Global Population Increasing?
• Components of Population Growth– Geographers measure population change in a
country or the world as a whole by using three measures:
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – total number of live birth in a year for every 1,000 people alive in society.
• Crude Death Rate (CDR) – total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive in society.
• Natural Increase Rate (NIR) – percentage by which a population grows in a year.
– Computation: CBR – CDR = NIR» Remember NIR is a percentage ( n per 100, while CBR
and CDR are expressed as n per 1,000)
World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth1950–20101950–2010
Total world population increased from 2.5 to 6 billion in this half century. The naturalTotal world population increased from 2.5 to 6 billion in this half century. The natural
increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since, but the number ofincrease rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since, but the number of
people added each year did not peak until 1990.people added each year did not peak until 1990.
World Population Growth, 1750–2150World Population Growth, 1750–2150
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_9SutNmfFk&feature=BF&list=ULadYPZ59_AUc&index=1
Natural IncreaseNatural Increase Q&A: When could world population stop Q&A: When could world population stop
growing?growing?First one – half million years: the population First one – half million years: the population
growth rate was about zerogrowth rate was about zero1700s modern era of population growth 1700s modern era of population growth
beganbeganBetween 1850 and 1900, the annual growth Between 1850 and 1900, the annual growth
rate reached 0.5 percentrate reached 0.5 percentBy the mid-1960’s rate surged to 2.0 percentBy the mid-1960’s rate surged to 2.0 percentDropped to 1.7 percent by the mid-1980s, Dropped to 1.7 percent by the mid-1980s,
and declined to about 1.4 percent by 2000.and declined to about 1.4 percent by 2000.
Natural Increase RatesNatural Increase Rates
The natural increase rate (NIR) is the percentage growth or decline in the The natural increase rate (NIR) is the percentage growth or decline in the population of a country per year (not including net migration). Countries in population of a country per year (not including net migration). Countries in
Africa and Southwest Asia have the highest current rates, while Russia Africa and Southwest Asia have the highest current rates, while Russia and some European countries have negative rates.and some European countries have negative rates.
Crude Birth RatesCrude Birth Rates
The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1,000The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1,000 population per year. The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest rates are inpopulation per year. The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest rates are in
Africa and several Asian countries.Africa and several Asian countries.
Crude Death RatesCrude Death Rates
The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a country The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a country per 1,000 population per year. Because wealthy countries are in a lateper 1,000 population per year. Because wealthy countries are in a late
stage of the demographic transition, they often have a higher CDR thanstage of the demographic transition, they often have a higher CDR than poorer countriespoorer countries..
Population Growth through Natural Increase, Population Growth through Natural Increase, 1775–20001775–2000
Total Fertility RatesTotal Fertility Rates
The The Total fertility rate (TFRTotal fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children an average woman in) is the number of children an average woman in a society will have through her childbearing years. The lowest rates are in a society will have through her childbearing years. The lowest rates are in
Europe, and the highest are in Africa and parts of the Middle East.Europe, and the highest are in Africa and parts of the Middle East.
Infant Mortality RatesInfant Mortality Rates
The infant mortality rate (IMR) The infant mortality rate (IMR) is the number of infant deaths per 1,000 live birthsis the number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births per year. The highest infant mortality rates are found in some of the poorestper year. The highest infant mortality rates are found in some of the poorest
countries of Africa and Asia.countries of Africa and Asia.
World Infant Mortality Rates World Infant Mortality Rates in Selected Countries, 2000in Selected Countries, 2000
Source: Carl Haub and Diana Cornelius, 2000 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2000).
Life Expectancy at birthLife Expectancy at birth
Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant canLife expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live. The highest life expectancies are generally in the wealthiest expect to live. The highest life expectancies are generally in the wealthiest
countries, and the lowest in the poorest countries. countries, and the lowest in the poorest countries.
Why Is Global Population Increasing?
• Summary of Spatial Patterns– Developed Countries
• Lower rates of… – Natural increase – Crude birth – Total fertility– Infant mortality
– Developing Countries• Higher rates of…
– Natural increase – Crude birth – Total fertility– Infant mortality
Why Is Global Population Increasing?
• Population Structure– Fertility and mortality vary not only spatially
but also temporally within a country.– A special bar graph known as a population
pyramid can visually display a country’s distinctive population structure.
• X-axis– Percent male displayed to the left of zero– Percent female displayed to the right of zero
• Y-axis– Age cohorts typically grouped in 5-year intervals– Youngest displayed at bottom and oldest at top
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision
Rapid Growth Slow Growth No GrowthRapid Growth Slow Growth No Growth
Population Age Structure DiagramPopulation Age Structure Diagram
Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+
Rapid GrowthRapid GrowthGuatemalaGuatemala
NigeriaNigeriaSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
Slow GrowthSlow GrowthUnited StatesUnited States
AustraliaAustraliaCanadaCanada
Zero GrowthZero GrowthSpainSpain
AustriaAustriaGreeceGreece
Negative GrowthNegative GrowthGermanyGermanyBulgariaBulgariaSwedenSweden
22 33
44 55
Population Pyramids – StagesPopulation Pyramids – Stages
Population Pyramids in U.S. CitiesPopulation Pyramids in U.S. Cities
Population pyramids can vary greatly, with different fertility rates (Laredo vs. Population pyramids can vary greatly, with different fertility rates (Laredo vs. Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns (Lawrence), and retirement communities (Naples). (Lawrence), and retirement communities (Naples).
Why Is Global Population Increasing?
• Population Structure– Dependency Ratio
• Defined as the number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years.
– People aged 0 to 14 and over 65 years old are considered dependents.
– Larger dependency ratios imply greater financial burden on the working class.
» 85 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, while 47 percent in Europe.
Why Is Global Population Increasing?
• Population Structure– Sex Ratio
• Defined as the number of males per 100 females in the population
– Developed countries have more females than males, because they tend to live 7 years longer.
Doubling TimeDoubling Time• Doubling Time of a population (years) :
– 70 / Population Growth Rate (%)
( 70 / 2.0% = 35 years )
– Rule of 70 :determine how long it would take for a population to double at its present growth rate.
– divide 70 by the population’s annual growth rate to determine the years needed to double the size of the population.
Human Population Doubling TimeHuman Population Doubling Time
Why has the worlds population Why has the worlds population grown at such different rates grown at such different rates
throughout history?throughout history?3 variables: births, deaths, and migration
Balancing Equation:
A. The difference between births and deaths in a population produces the natural increase(or decrease) of a population.
B. Net migration is the difference between the number of persons entering a geographic area (immigrants) and those leaving (emigrants)
C. Natural increase usually accounts for the greatest amount of growth in a population, especially within a short period of time.
Population increases at Population increases at different ratesdifferent rates
Key Issue 3: Why is population increasing at different rates in different countries?The demographic transition modelPopulation pyramidsCountries in different stages of
demographic transitionDemographic transition and world
population growth
– It is a model consisting of four stages that helps to explain the rising and falling of natural increase over time in a country.
– Historically, no country has ever reverted back to a previous stage.
• Thus, the model can be thought to have a beginning, middle, and an end.
The Demographic Transition Modal
Demographic Transition Model: Demographic Transition Model: Development & Population Intersect…Development & Population Intersect…
Demographic TransitionDemographic TransitionStage 1: Stage 1: Early Stationary Stage (No country is currently here)Early Stationary Stage (No country is currently here)
Population growth: slow increasePopulation growth: slow increase Birth rates: highBirth rates: high Death rates: highDeath rates: high
Most of humanity’s several-hundred year occupancy of Earth was Most of humanity’s several-hundred year occupancy of Earth was characterized by stage 1. Birth and death rates varied considerably characterized by stage 1. Birth and death rates varied considerably from one year to the next and from one region to another, but over from one year to the next and from one region to another, but over the long term they were roughly comparable, at very high levels.the long term they were roughly comparable, at very high levels.
Between 8000 B.C. and A.D. 1750, Earth’s human population Between 8000 B.C. and A.D. 1750, Earth’s human population increased from 5 million to 800 million. The burst of population increased from 5 million to 800 million. The burst of population growth around 8000 B.C. was caused by the growth around 8000 B.C. was caused by the agriculture revolution.agriculture revolution. Despite the agriculture revolution, the human population remained Despite the agriculture revolution, the human population remained in stage1 of the demographic transition because food supplies were in stage1 of the demographic transition because food supplies were unpredictable.unpredictable.
Demographic TransitionDemographic TransitionStage II: Stage II: Early Expanding StageEarly Expanding Stage
Birth rates: highBirth rates: high Death rates: decreasingDeath rates: decreasing Population growth: rapid and increasingPopulation growth: rapid and increasing
After around A.D1750 the world’s population suddenly began to After around A.D1750 the world’s population suddenly began to grow10 times faster than in the past. In stage II, the crude death grow10 times faster than in the past. In stage II, the crude death rate plummets, while the crude birth rate remains the same as in rate plummets, while the crude birth rate remains the same as in stage I. Most African countries are still in a stage II.stage I. Most African countries are still in a stage II.
With the advent of the With the advent of the Industrial Revolution Industrial Revolution and the and the improvements in technology, population growth rate changed. improvements in technology, population growth rate changed. Countries in Europe and North America entered stage II of the Countries in Europe and North America entered stage II of the demographic transition about 1800, but stage II did not diffuse demographic transition about 1800, but stage II did not diffuse to most countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America until the to most countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America until the 1950’s. 1950’s. The late 20The late 20thth century push of countries into stage II was century push of countries into stage II was caused by the medical revolutioncaused by the medical revolution. .
Percent of Population under 15Percent of Population under 15
About one-third of world population is under 15, but the percentage byAbout one-third of world population is under 15, but the percentage by country varies from over 40% in most of Africa and some Asian countries, tocountry varies from over 40% in most of Africa and some Asian countries, to
under 20% in much of Europe.under 20% in much of Europe.
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeRapid Growth in Cape Verde
Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition inCape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its populationabout 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population
history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.
Demographic TransitionDemographic TransitionStage III: Stage III: Late Expanding StageLate Expanding Stage
Birth rates: decreasingBirth rates: decreasing Death rates: leveling offDeath rates: leveling off Population growth: rapid but slowingPopulation growth: rapid but slowing
A country moves from a stage II to a stage III when the A country moves from a stage II to a stage III when the birth rate birth rate begins to drop sharplybegins to drop sharply. European and North American countries . European and North American countries moved from stage II to a stage III during the first half of the 20moved from stage II to a stage III during the first half of the 20 thth century. Most countries in Asia and Latin America have moved century. Most countries in Asia and Latin America have moved to a stage III in recent years. to a stage III in recent years.
A society enters a stage III when people decide to have fewer A society enters a stage III when people decide to have fewer children. children. Medical practicesMedical practices introduced in stage II improve the introduced in stage II improve the probability of infant survival, but many years pass before probability of infant survival, but many years pass before families react by conceiving fewer babies. families react by conceiving fewer babies.
Demographic TransitionDemographic TransitionStage III continued……Stage III continued……
Economic changes Economic changes in stage III also induce families to have in stage III also induce families to have fewer offspring. Farmers often consider a large family to be an fewer offspring. Farmers often consider a large family to be an asset. In contrast, children living in cities are generally not asset. In contrast, children living in cities are generally not economic assets. economic assets.
About 75% of the world’s population is stranded in stages II and About 75% of the world’s population is stranded in stages II and III. III.
Q&A: Q&A: What does improve technology increase?What does improve technology increase?resource availabilityresource availabilitystandard of livingstandard of livinghealth carehealth care????
Moderate Growth in ChileModerate Growth in Chile
Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and itChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and itentered stage 3 in the 1960s.entered stage 3 in the 1960s.
Demographic TransitionDemographic TransitionStage IV: Stage IV: Late Stationary StageLate Stationary Stage
Birth rates: lowBirth rates: low Death rates: lowDeath rates: low Population growth: lowPopulation growth: low
A country reaches stage IV when the A country reaches stage IV when the birth rate declines to the point birth rate declines to the point where it equals the death ratewhere it equals the death rate. The condition is called . The condition is called ZPGZPG. Most . Most European countries have reached stage IV. The United States has European countries have reached stage IV. The United States has moved slightly below ZPG since 2000. When families lived on farms, moved slightly below ZPG since 2000. When families lived on farms, employment and child rearing were conducted at the same place, but in employment and child rearing were conducted at the same place, but in urban societies parents leave the home to work.urban societies parents leave the home to work.
Changes in lifestyles also encourage smaller families. Several Eastern Changes in lifestyles also encourage smaller families. Several Eastern European countries, most notably Russia, have negative natural European countries, most notably Russia, have negative natural increase rates, a legacy of Communist rule. increase rates, a legacy of Communist rule.
Low Growth in DenmarkLow Growth in Denmark
Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since theDenmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the
1970s,with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid1970s,with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid
shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.
Demographic Transition in EnglandDemographic Transition in England
England was one of the first countries to experience rapid populationEngland was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of thegrowth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the
demographic transitiondemographic transition.
Why Does Population Growth Vary among Regions?
• Population Futures– Demographic Transition Possible Stage 5:
Decline• Characterized by…
– Very low CBR– Increasing CDR
» More elderly people than young persons– Negative NIR– Over time, few young women in child-bearing years
» Contributing to ever falling CBR
• Several European countries already have negative NIR.
– Russia is most notable hosting a negative NIR for 50 years.
Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition
Less developed countries : mortality Less developed countries : mortality revolution after World War II; changes did revolution after World War II; changes did not result from economic development not result from economic development within the countries, but were a result of within the countries, but were a result of international aid.international aid.
The impact of Western technology moves a The impact of Western technology moves a population from a stage I into a stage II. population from a stage I into a stage II. Industrialization and economic development Industrialization and economic development moves populations into a stage IVmoves populations into a stage IV
• Declining Birth Rates– Two Successful Strategies for Lowering Birth
Rates1. Improving Education and Health Care
– Emphasizes improving local economic conditions so that increased wealth is allocated to education and health programs seeking to lower birth rates.
2. Contraception– More immediate results reaped than previous approach– Met with greater resistance, because it goes against
cultural or religious beliefs of some. » Roman Catholics, fundamentalist Protestants,
Muslims, and Hindus.
Future Population TrendsFuture Population TrendsKey Issue 4: Key Issue 4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?
MalthusMalthus on overpopulation on overpopulation Declining birth ratesDeclining birth rates World Health ThreatsWorld Health Threats
Malthus argued that the world’s rate of population increase was Malthus argued that the world’s rate of population increase was far outrunning the development of food suppliesfar outrunning the development of food supplies
Malthus claimed that population increased geometrically, while Malthus claimed that population increased geometrically, while food supply increased arithmetically.food supply increased arithmetically.
Malthus concluded that population would press available Malthus concluded that population would press available resources in every country, unless “moral restraint” produced resources in every country, unless “moral restraint” produced lower birth rates or unless diseases, famine, war, or other lower birth rates or unless diseases, famine, war, or other disasters produced higher death rates. disasters produced higher death rates.
– He claimed the population was growing faster than the increase in food supply.
– Malthus’s Critics• Many geographers consider his beliefs too
pessimistic.– Malthus’s theory based on idea that world’s supply of
resources is fixed rather than expanding.
• Many disagree that population increase is not a problem.
– Larger populations could stimulate economic growth, and therefore, production of more food.
Malthus on Over Population
Malthus TheoryMalthus Theory
• Malthus on overpopulationMalthus on overpopulation– An Essay on the Principle of PopulationAn Essay on the Principle of Population
(1798): Population grows geometrically (1798): Population grows geometrically while food supply grows arithmeticallywhile food supply grows arithmetically
– Criticism of Malthus includes the following:Criticism of Malthus includes the following:• Pessimistic viewpointPessimistic viewpoint• Failure to consider technological innovationFailure to consider technological innovation• Marxist critiqueMarxist critique
• Malthus on Overpopulation– Theory and Reality
• Food production has increased over last 50 years faster than Malthus predicted.
• His model predicted world population to quadruple over the course of 50 years.
– Not even in India has population growth outpaced food production.
Food and Population, 1950–2000Food and Population, 1950–2000Malthus vs. Actual TrendsMalthus vs. Actual Trends
Malthus predicted population would grow faster than foodMalthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster thanproduction, but food production actually expanded faster than
population in the second half of the twentieth century.population in the second half of the twentieth century.
Malthus: Theory & RealityMalthus: Theory & Reality
Projections of World PopulationProjections of World PopulationFuture of World Population Growth: Future of World Population Growth:
Three Scenarios, 2000 to 2100Three Scenarios, 2000 to 2100
World population is projected to increase to 7.8 World population is projected to increase to 7.8 billion by 2025billion by 2025
8.9 billion by 20508.9 billion by 2050If the If the growth rategrowth rate does not fall and the worlds does not fall and the worlds
population reaches 11 billion by 2100, the population reaches 11 billion by 2100, the population will have doubled in about 100 yearspopulation will have doubled in about 100 years
Components of Population ChangeComponents of Population Change
Future of World Population Growth: Future of World Population Growth: Three Scenarios, 2000 to 2100Three Scenarios, 2000 to 2100
Patterns of Population ChangePatterns of Population ChangeQ&A: Why does it take so long to slow or stop population growth?Q&A: Why does it take so long to slow or stop population growth?
Population Momentum:Population Momentum: Growth through natural increase occurs when the birth rate Growth through natural increase occurs when the birth rate
exceeds the death rate.exceeds the death rate. The rate of natural increases of a population depends on birth The rate of natural increases of a population depends on birth
and death rates, which are strongly influenced by the population and death rates, which are strongly influenced by the population age.age.
The momentum of population growth in less developed countries The momentum of population growth in less developed countries will be slowed when the larger number of young adults resulting will be slowed when the larger number of young adults resulting from previous high fertility have passed out of the childbearing from previous high fertility have passed out of the childbearing years and a smaller generation reproduces at replacement level years and a smaller generation reproduces at replacement level fertility.fertility.
Two strategies have been successful in reducing birth rates. Two strategies have been successful in reducing birth rates. Economic development and distribution of contraceptives.Economic development and distribution of contraceptives.
Impacts of Rapid Population Impacts of Rapid Population GrowthGrowth
Environmental Conditions: Environmental Conditions: In the past, a relatively small global population with a In the past, a relatively small global population with a low level of technology meant a fairly low impact on low level of technology meant a fairly low impact on the environment. Today, however, the combination of the environment. Today, however, the combination of a larger global population and high technology has a larger global population and high technology has led to many problems.led to many problems.
Pollution of air, soil, and waterPollution of air, soil, and water Deforestation and desertificationDeforestation and desertification
As the global population doubles sometime in the As the global population doubles sometime in the next 43 years, the pollution level will double – unless next 43 years, the pollution level will double – unless we change the way we extract resources from the we change the way we extract resources from the environment. environment.
Resource AvailabilityResource Availability
Although increasing our level of technology Although increasing our level of technology enables us to extract more resources from enables us to extract more resources from the environment, we do not know if this the environment, we do not know if this process is infinite: there may be a limit to the process is infinite: there may be a limit to the number of resources we can extract from our number of resources we can extract from our planet.planet.
The availability of resources is largely The availability of resources is largely determined by access to technology and determined by access to technology and resources. resources.
Per Capita Annual Renewable Freshwater Availability, 1950, 1995, 2050
Source: Population Action International, Sustaining Water, Erasing Scarcity.
Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth Environmental RelationshipsEnvironmental Relationships
Housing & HungerHousing & Hunger Countries below “The Line,” population is growing faster Countries below “The Line,” population is growing faster
than housing is being built; these countries cannot afford to than housing is being built; these countries cannot afford to build enough housing quickly enough to keep up with the build enough housing quickly enough to keep up with the growing population.growing population.
As this cycle continues, the number of homeless people will As this cycle continues, the number of homeless people will increase. increase.
At the present time, we can grow enough food to feed the At the present time, we can grow enough food to feed the world. However, people go hungry because we cannot world. However, people go hungry because we cannot distribute the food adequately. This problem has a direct distribute the food adequately. This problem has a direct effect on the mental development of children.effect on the mental development of children.
The The Brandt Line Brandt Line is a visual depiction of the North-South divide, proposed is a visual depiction of the North-South divide, proposed by German Chancellor Willy Brandt in the 1980s. It approximately by German Chancellor Willy Brandt in the 1980s. It approximately encircles the world at a latitude of 30encircles the world at a latitude of 30° ° N, passing between North and N, passing between North and Middle America, north of Africa and India, but dipping south so as to Middle America, north of Africa and India, but dipping south so as to include Australia and New Zealand in the “Rich North.”include Australia and New Zealand in the “Rich North.”
The map above showing the north-south divide as been updated recently to The map above showing the north-south divide as been updated recently to include countries like South Africa, Singapore and Taiwan. It was based upon include countries like South Africa, Singapore and Taiwan. It was based upon the Brandt line and shows the more economically developed countries in blue the Brandt line and shows the more economically developed countries in blue and the less economically developed countries in red.and the less economically developed countries in red.Positives of Map:Positives of Map:Simplifies data so that it's easy to understand.Simplifies data so that it's easy to understand.GDP is used which is an easy to access data source.GDP is used which is an easy to access data source.Negatives of Map:Negatives of Map:Doesn't include some countries which are more economically developed.Doesn't include some countries which are more economically developed.Generalized patterns with some countries above the Brandt line less Generalized patterns with some countries above the Brandt line less developed less than some below.developed less than some below.
Medical Care & EducationMedical Care & Education Providing sufficient health care is already a Providing sufficient health care is already a
problem in many places; even the United States problem in many places; even the United States cannot provide health care to all its inhabitants. As cannot provide health care to all its inhabitants. As the global population grows, this problem will, too. the global population grows, this problem will, too.
Worldwide about 8 million babies die annually Worldwide about 8 million babies die annually before their first birthday.before their first birthday.
As countries develop economically, infant mortality As countries develop economically, infant mortality usually declines.usually declines.
Every year, more and more people are illiterate - Every year, more and more people are illiterate - and every year, more of the illiterate are womenand every year, more of the illiterate are women.
Status of WomenStatus of Women
Although women have gained more Although women have gained more political and economic rights in the United political and economic rights in the United States, in most of the rest of the world, States, in most of the rest of the world, women have lost groundwomen have lost ground
Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth The Status of WomenThe Status of Women
Source: Source: Demographic and Health SurveysDemographic and Health Surveys, 1991–1999, 1991–1999
Women's Age at First Marriage (years) and Women's Age at First Marriage (years) and Family Size (TFR) in Selected Countries, Family Size (TFR) in Selected Countries,
1990s1990s
Global Security & WildernessGlobal Security & Wilderness Remember, as population grows, the demand for Remember, as population grows, the demand for
resources grows. If there is a limit to the amount of resources grows. If there is a limit to the amount of resources, competition for what is available will resources, competition for what is available will increase, which will threaten political and economical increase, which will threaten political and economical infrastructures.infrastructures.
The more population grows, the more difficult it is to The more population grows, the more difficult it is to maintain wilderness area. maintain wilderness area.
It is hard to preserve wilderness in poor areas: food and It is hard to preserve wilderness in poor areas: food and money!money!
Patterns of World UrbanizationPatterns of World UrbanizationQ&A: What are the social implications of rapid population
growth in less developed countries? Rural, dependent on agriculture and hunting for survival. In 1800, only 3% of the world’s population lived in urban
areas. 1900, almost 14% were urbanites, only 12 cities had 1
million or more people. 1950’s, 30% of the world’s population resided in urban
centers. 83 cities had over 1 million 2000, about 47% of the world’s population lived in urban
areas(2.8 Billion) 411 cities over 1 million Developed nations are about 76% urban 40% of residents of less developed countries live in
urban areas
Future Urbanization PatternsFuture Urbanization Patterns 2030, 60% of the world’s population will be urban Most urban growth will occur in less developed
countries.
Q&A: What is an urban area?
Any place with a population of 2500 + urban; some set a minimum of 20,000.
2000, 39% of the world’s urbanites lived in agglomerations of 1 million15% resided in agglomerations of 5 million or
more.8% of Americans live in cities of 1 million or more.
MegacitiesMegacities 10 Million habitants = megacities 1950: 8cities had populations of 5 million or
more 2 of them in less developed countries 2000: 41 2015, 59 megacities will exist, 48 in less
developed countries 1950, only one city had more than 10 million
people 2015, 23 cities are projected to hold over 10
million people; all but four will be in less developed countries.
Largest Urban Agglomerations, 1950, 2000, 2015Largest Urban Agglomerations, 1950, 2000, 2015
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision
Top 10 Largest Urban Agglomerations Top 10 Largest Urban Agglomerations in 1950, 2000, 2015in 1950, 2000, 2015
1950 2000 20151. New York, USA 12.3 1. Tokyo, Japan 26.4 1. Tokyo, Japan 26.4
2. London, England 8.7 2. Mexico City, Mex. 18.4 2. Bombay, India 26.1
3. Tokyo, Japan 6.9 3. Bombay, India 18.0 3. Lagos, Nigeria 23.2
4. Paris, France 5.4 4. Sao Paulo, Brazil 17.8 4. Dhaka, Bang. 21.1
5. Moscow, Russia 5.4 5. New York, USA 16.6 5. Sao Paulo, Bra 20.4
6. Shanghai, China 5.3 6. Lagos, Nigeria 13.4 6. Karachi, Pakistan 19.2
7. Essen, Germany 5.3 7. Los Angeles 13.1 7. Mex. City, Mex. 19.2
8. Buenos Aires, Arg 5.0 8. Calcutta, India 12.9 8. New York, USA 17.4
9. Chicago, USA 4.9 9. Shanghai, China 12.9 9. Jakarta,Indonesia17.3
10. Calcutta, India 4.4 10.Buenos Aires, Arg 12.6 10. Calcutta, India 17.3
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2005 Revision
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0
Growth of Urban Agglomerations, 1950–2015Growth of Urban Agglomerations, 1950–2015
Epidemiologic Transition:Epidemiologic Transition:World Health ThreatsWorld Health Threats
Stage 1: Stage 1: Pestilence and famineStage of pestilence and famineStage of pestilence and famineInfectious and parasitic diseases were principal Infectious and parasitic diseases were principal
causes of deathcauses of deathBlack PlagueBlack PlaguePandemicsPandemics
Stage 2: Stage 2: Receding pandemicsStage of receding pandemicsStage of receding pandemicsOccurs over a wide geographic areaOccurs over a wide geographic areaEffects a high proportion of the populationEffects a high proportion of the populationCholeraCholera
Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo- Hans Rosling “200” Hans Rosling “200”
Cholera in Cholera in London, 1854London, 1854
Stage 2: Stage 2: Receding Receding pandemicspandemics
Cholera Cholera and and Dr. John Dr. John SnowSnow
By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the waterborne epidemic.Dr. John Snow identified the source of the waterborne epidemic.
Epidemiologic TransitionEpidemiologic Transition Stage 3: Stage 3: Degenerative diseasesDegenerative diseases
Degenerative and human created diseasesDegenerative and human created diseasesDecrease in deaths from infectious diseases and Decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and
an increase in disorders associated with agingan increase in disorders associated with agingCardiovascular disease and cancerCardiovascular disease and cancer
Stage 4: Stage 4: Delayed degenerative diseasesDelayed degenerative diseasesDelayed degenerative diseasesDelayed degenerative diseasesHeart diseases and cancerHeart diseases and cancerLife is extended through medical advancesLife is extended through medical advances
Epidemiologic TransitionEpidemiologic Transition Stage 5: Stage 5: Reemergence of infectious diseases?Reemergence of infectious diseases?
Stage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseasesStage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases Evolution of diseasesEvolution of diseases PovertyPoverty TravelTravel MalariaMalaria TuberculosisTuberculosis SARSSARS AIDSAIDS
– Three reasons why it might be happening:Three reasons why it might be happening:» EvolutionEvolution» PovertyPoverty» Improved travelImproved travel
HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 20112011
The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and ChinaThe highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.
SARS Infections in China, 2003SARS Infections in China, 2003
China had 85 percent of the world's SARS cases in 2003. Within China, the
infection was highly clustered in Guangdong Province, Hong Kong, and Beijing.
Tuberculosis Death Rates, 2000Tuberculosis Death Rates, 2000
The tuberculosis death rate is a good indicator of a country’s ability to invest inThe tuberculosis death rate is a good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious-disease killers. health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious-disease killers.
Why Do Some Regions Face Health Threats?
• Health Care– Health conditions vary around the world,
primarily, because countries possess different resources to care for people who are sick.
• Expenditures on Health Care– More than 15 percent of total government expenditures in
Europe and North America.– Less than 5 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Why Do Some Regions Face Health Threats?
• Health Care– Health Care Systems
• Developed Countries – Public service available at little or no cost.– Government pays more than 70 percent of health-care
costs in most European countries, and private individuals pay about 30 percent of the expense.
• Developing Countries– Private individuals must pay more than half of the cost of
health care.» U.S. is an exception to these generalizations, because private
individuals are required to pay about 55 percent of health care costs making it more closely resemble a developing country, in regards to health care.
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