population and climate change

Human Population

Content

Introduction Global population : an overview Population and Emissions Population Policy China and India : The Billionaires Future Demographic Emissions Conclusion

Interaction between variables I = P A T

I = Environmental impact (I) P= Population (P)A= Affluence (economic product or consumption per

person)T= Technology

U NFPA—because everyone counts

Source : Lutz, Wolfgang, 2009

Problem:

“Future population growth in developing nations could accentuate climate change. A reduction in growth rates would, therefore, help mitigate climate change while speeding up poverty reduction and development.” (Guzman 2009)

Global overview

The 1980s and 1990s saw the greatest

numbers of added people

Demographic transition

Mortality declined :-Medical advances (antibiotics and vaccines)-Dietary improvement-Public health/Sanitation-Safe drinking water-Vector control

Fertility declined :-Desired family size-Link with education and income-contraception

1950

2100

2010

1950

Population of the 20 most populous countries (millions)

Population by age groups and sex 

Interesting Regional Snapshot(Science, 29 July 2011)

- Uganda has average 6.67 children/woman (one of the highest in the world)- Prenzlau (East Germany) : less than 300

babies/year because of the lack of young woman

- Thailand : only 6% of Thai women more than 60 attended any secondary school

- Andhra pradesh (India): young mothers (married at 16), more than 60% women are sterilized at 23.

Population and GHG Emissions

Source: Khatib (2011)

“Population growth or decline will continue to be a key determinant of future emissions increases” (Scheinder, et.al 2010)

Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC/countries?display=map

Example

China India United States

ChinaIndia

China and India : The Billionaires

China

India

201

0

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005

International agreement linked to the UNFCCC, which commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets

In Doha, Qatar, on 8 December 2012, the "Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol" was adopted. 

Message for a world of 7 billions

70% of future world population growth is take place in 20 countries in Africa and Asia (not included China)

Smaller families : education, health care, family planning and opportunities for women

Reducing poverty and inequality can slow population growth

Ensuring that every child is wanted and every childbirth safe can

lead to smaller and stronger families

Future demographic

Population projections (high, medium and low to 2300). The United Nations high, medium, and low population projections are based on assumptions about current and future fertility, mortality, and migration. Data from United Nations Population Division (2004)World Population to 2300. Source :Leahy and Engelman, 2008

Climate Challenge

Developed countries-Stable/declining population- Lower growth : fewer opportunities for changes and limitation for efficiency gains

- Infrastructures efficiency improvement Developing countries

- High population rate- Opportunity lower energy uses

Migration

Figure . Population by age and sex in more-developed and less-developed countries, 2010Source :Samir KC.2013

Population policy (Schneider et.al )

Population policy is important in mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Reproductive health serviceFact: only 54% woman use modern contraception, and less than 10% in Africa

Family planning especially in developing countries

Figure. Contraceptive methods percentages used by currently married women, aged 15–49 years, throughout the world, 2009 (Samir KC, 2013)

Key points from Scheineder,et.al

China, US and India : more than 40% world’s population and 45% produce CO2 emissions

Stabilizing global population is a key role to address ‘cause and effect’ climate change

Scientific, political, technology and health care might affect population growth

Thanks!

“People are part of the Problem of Climate Change and Part of The Solution” (O’neill et.al 2001)