planning for housing and jobs in the shire · housing forecast to 2025/26 14 436 613 671 871 1717...

Planning for Housing and

Jobs in The Shire

May 2019

Vision: Connecting people, places and nature

Planning for Greater Sydney

40 year vision –

20 year plan

Existing

Infrastructure

investment in

Greater Sydney

Sydney will grow –

additional 1.7M by

2036

‘Growth

Infrastructure

Compact’

Establishes District

Planning Priorities

20 Year Plan

Vision: Connecting people, places and nature

The Shire

The Shire ……

• Cook’s landing place

• 5.5km of ocean beaches / beautiful natural assets

• ANSTO

• Caltex fuel terminal

• Desalination plant

• Holsworthy defence facility

• Significant industrial – Kirrawee, Taren Point, Kurnell

• 91% of resident rate their quality of life as very good

or excellent (census)

Population and dwellings 1996 – 2036

Census

year

Estimated

resident

population

Average

annual

population

growth from

previous

census

Total Private

dwellings2

Average

annual

private

dwelling

growth

from

previous

census3

Average

Household

size

1996 203,800 - 72,421 - 2.82(2)

2001 213,800 1.0% 78,454 1.6% 2.74(2)

2006 212,500 -0.1% 80,948 0.6% 2.65(2)

2011 220,250 0.6% 82,771 0.4% 2.71

2016 229,500 0.8% 84,526 0.5% 2.68

The Shire ……

• Low population growth – 0.7% pa

• Significant change in over 60yrs old – 2016 =

18% by 2036 = 23%, over 70 up 69%

Vision: Connecting people, places and nature

Jobs

Jobs ……

• 66,432 jobs in The Shire – 70% filled by local

residents

• Employment self containment rate 41%

• Biggest destination for work is Sydney CBD

• Airport is an increasingly popular place of work

• 64% travel to work by car, 16% train

• Shire unemployment = 3.5% - South District = 6%

Planning Priority P1: Support the growth of the ANSTO

Innovation Precinct

• Currently employs about 1200 plus other

businesses on site

• Innovation Precinct initiative

• Potential for at least 5000 jobs

• Lack of connectivity a major constraint – people

and freight

• Identified as Collaboration Area in South District

Plan – driven by GSC – 12 month project

Planning Priority P2: Support the growth of the Caringbah

Medical Precinct

• Health care and social assistance biggest

employer – 15% or 9931 jobs

• Aim is to provide a cluster linking to Caringbah

• Floor space bonus for ‘health service facilities’

• Potential = 26,090 m2

• Proposed = 10,032 m2

• Approved = 7,093 m2

• Several buildings under construction

Planning Priority P3: Explore opportunities to grow jobs and

economic activity in Sutherland-Kirrawee and Miranda

• Sutherland and Miranda ‘strategic centres’

• Focus of the ‘30 minute city’ concept

Sutherland ……

• 2016 = 5,700 jobs

• 2036 = 8 - 9,000 jobs

• Entertainment Centre, Police/Court, Council

• Connection with Kirrawee

• Incentives over last decade not effective – why?

Sites yet to realise development potential

Sutherland-Kirrawee

Miranda ……

• 2016 = 7,000 jobs

• 2036 = 8 -11,500 jobs

• Retail, leisure, health and social services

• F6 and visionary mass transit link??

• Incentives over last decade not effective – why?

Sites yet to realise development potential

Miranda

Planning Priority P4: Accommodate a range of traditional and

emerging industrial activities and urban services

• 600 hectares of industrial land = 21% of jobs

• 45% are population serving jobs

• Below benchmark for ‘urban services’ land

• Working waterfront – 20% of IN4 land in Sydney

• Influence of airport

• Significant potential at Kurnell and Toyota

• Need to accommodate emerging economy

• Retain and protect approach

Planning Priority P5: Support the growth of the tourism industry

• Numerous natural and other attractions

• Visitation growing 5% year on year

• 2,500 tourism related local businesses

contributing $252M to the economy

• 76% day trippers – lost opportunity

• Need more short stay accommodation

• Council recognises need for incentive

• Scope for cultural and sporting events, and more

experiences

Vision: Connecting people, places and nature

Housing

The recent past ……

• Historic housing growth rates = about 400 pa

• Household size decline = more dwellings for

same population

• LEP 2015 provided capacity – taken up rapidly

• Granny flats 21% of increase of last 10 years

• Ageing population – 69% increase in over 70

• Housing choice

• Housing affordability / key workers

Housing forecast

to 2025/26

14

436

613671

871

1717

2663

2066

1456

1227

700 700 700 700 700

426

247

390

219

657

1050

2074

1356

843 802

1078

809731

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

FY 11/12 FY 12/13 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY25/26

Forecast dwelling approvals and completions to 2025/26

Total Recorded Approvals Total Approvals Projected Total Recorded Completions Total Completions Projected Low

Source: DPE (2017), SSC forecasting

Housing Delivery Pipeline

5 Year Housing Target

5200

1707

2788

3061

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Five yearhousing target

(GSC)

Housingdelivery

Completions Under construction

Approved

Under

construction

Delivered to date:

FY16/17 –FY17/18

Housing Delivery

90,100 93,250 96,850 101,000 105,050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Population and Dwellings

Total Population Implied Dwellings

DPE Forecasts

Forecast Growth 2016 - 2036

Pop + 31K

Housing + 15k

Going forward …….

• Capacity remaining in LEP2015

• Community preference for centralised

development rather than decentralised

• Strategic centres – Sutherland (+ Kirrawee) and

Miranda

• Research on why centres are not developing

• Some decentralised to provide choice

2019 2020