planetary defense and neo exploration

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

49th GoddardMemorial Symposium

Thomas D. Jones, PhD

tj@space-explorers.org

Greenbelt, MD

March 31, 2011

Hayabusa Return

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

2

Report

of the

NASA Advisory Council

Ad Hoc Task Force on Planetary Defense

October 6, 2010

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/490945main_10-10_TFPD.pdf

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

Richard P. Binzel

Professor of Planetary Science

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Clark R. Chapman

Senior Scientist

Southwest Research Institute

Lindley N. Johnson

Program Executive

Near-Earth Object Observations Program

HQ NASA

Thomas D. Jones

Visiting Senior Research Scientist

Institute for Human and Machine Cognition

(Task Force Co-Chair)

NAC Task Force on Planetary Defense

Russell L. Schweickart

Chairman, B612 Foundation

(Task Force Co-Chair)

Brian Wilcox

Principal Member of Technical Staff

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Donald K. Yeomans

Manager, Near-Earth Object Program Office

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Executive Secretary

Bette Siegel

Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

HQ NASA

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

• Search programs are rapidly increasing NEO discovery rate

• Many PHOs will have “worrisome probability of impact”• Threshold for concern? Impact probability of

1/1000? 1/100? 1/50?

• Imperfect information at time deflection decision needed

• Deflection decision frequency considerably higher than actual impact frequency (20:1, 50:1, 100:1?)

• International leadership needed: Inevitable risk shifting as impact point point is moved to eliminate risk for all

4

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

• NASA NEO activity is “3-D”: exploration, science,

planetary defense (PD)

• Minor incremental cost to “other” space missions

can yield large increase in PD knowledge

• Example: Science mission can demonstrate prox-

ops algorithms for PD, human exploration

• Example: NEO’s interior structure, physical

properties, and stability of surface materials

(for human exploration) aids PD planning

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Synergies from Planetary Defense(1 of 2)

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

• Time is a 4th dimension of NASA’s NEO research• Early integration of PD results in faster maturity of

technology

• Eliminates cost of duplicate flight missions

• Integrating PD into science and human exploration

missions increases overall knowledge return• Meets needs of managers, policy makers, scientists, public

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Synergies from Planetary Defense(2 of 2)

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

1. Organize for Effective Action on Planetary Defense

2. Acquire Essential Search, Track, and Warning Capabilities

3. Investigate the Nature of the Impact Threat

4. Prepare to Respond to Impact Threats

5. Lead U.S. Planetary Defense Efforts in National and International Forums

Task Force Recommendations

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

2.3 Short-term Warning:

NASA should investigate development of low cost, short-term impact warning systems

-- stats on small bodies, science cueing, public outreach

8http://fallingstar.com/danger.html

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

Space-based NEO Search:

Showing orbit geometry when Earth and the spacecraft are on approximately opposite sides of the sun. Earth-based telescopes will detect some NEOs that the space-based telescope will miss during the NEO perihelion passage. The resulting completeness will be better than with any single telescope.

Ball Aerospace

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Completeness for entire NEO population: IR space telescope only

All NEOs >140 m

All NEOs >60 m

Time (years)

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90% completeness at 8.4 years

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Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

Amor

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Completeness on Human Exploration targets: IR space telescope only

>30 m

>60 m

Time (Earth years)

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Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

NEO Search ExplorationRisk Reduction

• NEO Search Will Fill in Operations “Flight Data File” • EVA, tools, science, rendezvous, descent, etc.

• Reduces Operations, Crew, and Program Risk• Known environment• Can prepare operations skill set• Verify mission is within crew capabilities• More targets reduced flight duration, mission ΔV

• Expanded program flexibility• Ties human exploration directly to human survival

Planetary Defense & NEO Exploration

Association of

Space Explorers

http://www.space-explorers.org

Art by Dan Durda