pioneer summit 2015 opening keynote by michael moe
Post on 12-Apr-2017
183 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
The Power of Pioneers
MICHAEL MOE, CFAFounder, GSV @michaelmoe
WELCOME 2015 GSV Pioneer Summit!
Wicked Issues Facing Humanity
$4.5 B+private funding
raised
1,000+Attendees
100Speakers
Ron Johnson
Anne Wojcicki
Michael Abbott
Ira Ehrenpreis
Phil Libin
Guy Kawasaki
GLOBAL SILICON VALLEYHall of Fame
Bill CampbellCoach of the Valley
Larry SonsiniCounsel to Titans
Diane GreeneTechnology Maverick
Dick KramlichVenture Capital
Trailblazer
Mike Homer (in memoriam)Creative Force of Nature
We “Open” at the Close
We won’t have a closing, but rather an opening to conversations and relationships for the coming year to transform industries.
Megabots Party
Sustainability MobileBig DataEdTech Games
50 cities map
LosAltos
Palo Alto
Atherton
Redwood City
San Mateo
Millbrae
HalfMoon Bay
South San Francisco
SFO
San Francisco
FosterCity
Woodside
Oakland
THE BUSINESSES OFTHE BUSINESSES OF
SILICON VALLEY
Cuperti no
Sunnyvale
Milpitas
Fremont
Mountain View
San Jose
Venture capitalists are people too…most of them anyway.
Phrases to avoid in a pitch
“”
We’re the Uber for ___.
Phrases to avoid in a pitch
“”
We’re not afraid to pivot.
Phrases to avoid in a pitch
“”
This is the holy grail.
50 cities map
22 The Global Silicon Valley Handbook
the SILICON VALLEYPARKING GARAGE
TESLA MODEL S• Signature car of the
Valley and the CEO’s car, usually parked next to the CFO’s Tesla
• Combines the make and price of a Lambo with the sound of a mute ferret
MINI COOPER• Usually bought by
men and women who think the car is “soooo adorable”
• Has an inferiority complex when parked next to any Hot Wheels
HONDA ODYSSEY• The soccer mom or dad
car
• Has surprising ability to be a “whip,” gunning down the freeway to make it to soccer practi ce on ti me
TOYOTA PRIUS• The workingperson’s car
• Easy to park, aff ordable, effi cient, all in a lunch-box shape
• So average and inconspicuous they are a favorite of drug dealers everywhere
BMW M3• Even if drivers are kind
environmentalists and volunteer at homeless shelters, passersby sti ll think he is a “show-off y, wealth obsessed d-bag”
• High-end car driven by the children of hardworking parents
MOTORCYCLE• Cheap, dangerous,
thrilling, and the number one vehicle on your mother’s hit list
• Most drivers are members of Sons of Anarchy or watch it on Netf lix
RANGE ROVER• The hot rich mom car
• Usually driven by really hot, really rich mom
• This mom is really hot
PORSCHE BOXSTER• Usually bought at the
peak of a midlife crisis
• Oft en seen in the left lane going the speed limit
HORSE AND CARRIAGE• Preferred by the Amish
Google engineer
• Also seen with very very dedicated hipsters
23silicon valley
BAY AREA TO STANDARD AMERICAN ENGLISH TRANSLATOR
By Louis Weinstein, Published by Timothy McSweeny’s
“Who are you again?” BAY AREA“What company do you work for?” ENGLISH
“Do you live in this neighborhood?”“Can you aff ord to live in San Francisco?”
“We should get lunch.”“I’ve identi fi ed your value relati ve to me and wish to start the process of exploiti ng your talents.”
“Our new mobile opti mizati on will change the internet as we know it.”“My startup has yet to go public and is acti vely seeking angel investors.”
“What’s your Facebook?”1. “I would like to mine the Internet for informati on about you that basic social customs preclude me from directly asking about.”2. “I would like to ogle you.”
“I’ll take a bott le of the most expensive wine you have.”“I have enough money to get away with how insuff erable I’m about to be. Yes, I am 22.”
“Thanks for your interest, but we’ve decided to promote Mitch.”“Good luck being a woman in this city. Please, for both our sakes, don’t show emoti on.”
“Where are you, now?”“As our relati onship is enti rely based on our previous co-working experience and this social occasion has mandated that we talk, please defi ne yourself through your current employer. This way, we can have something to discuss unti l we reach a mutual sati sfactory level of social interacti on or I determine that your employment may be of value to me at which point I will suggest that we ‘get lunch’.”
“Cozy studio in south Nob Hill, $2,400/mo”“Extra closet space in former meth lab, Tenderloin district. You will have two roommates and no kitchen. Actually $3,845/month. Parti al roof.”
YOU’RE NOT AN ENTREPRENEUR IF...
You ask “Steve who?”or “Elon who?”
You check when the bank holidays are for your offi ce
You get a speeding ti cket and you don’t pitch your startup to the offi cer
You don’t have a TGIS (Thank God It’s Sunday) because that’s when your week starts
You hire a consultant to see if your plan is feasible
You start your business with the goal of selling it
You’re at a Giants game and you don’t have at least one idea for an app that would revoluti onize baseball
You haven’t maxed out at least two credit cards keeping your company afl oat
You haven’t been told by your friends to be realisti c and get a real job
Your signifi cant other tells you it’s them or your business and you don’t say “I love you and I’ll miss you”
22 The Global Silicon Valley Handbook
the SILICON VALLEYPARKING GARAGE
TESLA MODEL S• Signature car of the
Valley and the CEO’s car, usually parked next to the CFO’s Tesla
• Combines the make and price of a Lambo with the sound of a mute ferret
MINI COOPER• Usually bought by
men and women who think the car is “soooo adorable”
• Has an inferiority complex when parked next to any Hot Wheels
HONDA ODYSSEY• The soccer mom or dad
car
• Has surprising ability to be a “whip,” gunning down the freeway to make it to soccer practi ce on ti me
TOYOTA PRIUS• The workingperson’s car
• Easy to park, aff ordable, effi cient, all in a lunch-box shape
• So average and inconspicuous they are a favorite of drug dealers everywhere
BMW M3• Even if drivers are kind
environmentalists and volunteer at homeless shelters, passersby sti ll think he is a “show-off y, wealth obsessed d-bag”
• High-end car driven by the children of hardworking parents
MOTORCYCLE• Cheap, dangerous,
thrilling, and the number one vehicle on your mother’s hit list
• Most drivers are members of Sons of Anarchy or watch it on Netf lix
RANGE ROVER• The hot rich mom car
• Usually driven by really hot, really rich mom
• This mom is really hot
PORSCHE BOXSTER• Usually bought at the
peak of a midlife crisis
• Oft en seen in the left lane going the speed limit
HORSE AND CARRIAGE• Preferred by the Amish
Google engineer
• Also seen with very very dedicated hipsters
23silicon valley
BAY AREA TO STANDARD AMERICAN ENGLISH TRANSLATOR
By Louis Weinstein, Published by Timothy McSweeny’s
“Who are you again?” BAY AREA“What company do you work for?” ENGLISH
“Do you live in this neighborhood?”“Can you aff ord to live in San Francisco?”
“We should get lunch.”“I’ve identi fi ed your value relati ve to me and wish to start the process of exploiti ng your talents.”
“Our new mobile opti mizati on will change the internet as we know it.”“My startup has yet to go public and is acti vely seeking angel investors.”
“What’s your Facebook?”1. “I would like to mine the Internet for informati on about you that basic social customs preclude me from directly asking about.”2. “I would like to ogle you.”
“I’ll take a bott le of the most expensive wine you have.”“I have enough money to get away with how insuff erable I’m about to be. Yes, I am 22.”
“Thanks for your interest, but we’ve decided to promote Mitch.”“Good luck being a woman in this city. Please, for both our sakes, don’t show emoti on.”
“Where are you, now?”“As our relati onship is enti rely based on our previous co-working experience and this social occasion has mandated that we talk, please defi ne yourself through your current employer. This way, we can have something to discuss unti l we reach a mutual sati sfactory level of social interacti on or I determine that your employment may be of value to me at which point I will suggest that we ‘get lunch’.”
“Cozy studio in south Nob Hill, $2,400/mo”“Extra closet space in former meth lab, Tenderloin district. You will have two roommates and no kitchen. Actually $3,845/month. Parti al roof.”
YOU’RE NOT AN ENTREPRENEUR IF...
You ask “Steve who?”or “Elon who?”
You check when the bank holidays are for your offi ce
You get a speeding ti cket and you don’t pitch your startup to the offi cer
You don’t have a TGIS (Thank God It’s Sunday) because that’s when your week starts
You hire a consultant to see if your plan is feasible
You start your business with the goal of selling it
You’re at a Giants game and you don’t have at least one idea for an app that would revoluti onize baseball
You haven’t maxed out at least two credit cards keeping your company afl oat
You haven’t been told by your friends to be realisti c and get a real job
Your signifi cant other tells you it’s them or your business and you don’t say “I love you and I’ll miss you”
Erlich Bachman’s Guide to Business
“
”
We’ll call you when we want pleated khakis.
Erlich Bachman’s Guide to Business
“
”
You just brought shit to a piss fight.
Every day in America 1,100
new businesses are formed.
Source: Gallup, U.S. Census Bureau
Every day in America 1,300 businesses fail.
Source: Gallup, U.S. Census Bureau
In 2014, Venture Capitalists invested in
4,356 companies.
Source: NVCA, PwC
In 2014, just 115 venture-backed companies went
public….
Source: Thomson Reuters, NVCA
…and that was the best year since 2000.
Source: Dow Jones Venture Source, Fenwick & West
20% Chance Company Survives First 3 Years
What kind of nut would start a
business?
Name that “Nut”
Lost job in ’32
Defeated in race for State Legislature in ’32
Failed in business ‘33
He had a nervous breakdown in ’41
Defeated in races for:
Congress in ‘43 Senate in ‘55
Vice President in ‘56 Senate in ‘58
And the answer is…
Teachers told him he was “too stupid to learn anything”
Fired from his first two jobs for lack of productivity
Thomas Edison
$256 Billion Market Cap
He was fired by a newspaper editor because he "lacked imagination
and had no good ideas"
Launched film studios in 1920 and 1921… both went bankrupt
$173 Billion Market Cap
$208 BillionMarket Cap
“In order to earn better than a ‘C’, the idea must be feasible.”
-Yale professor response to a paper he submitted in 1965
Wilson turned FedEx’s last $5,000 into $27,000 at the Black Jack table
Whatever it Takes
$41 Billion Market Cap
Dyslexic
Turned down by 53 banks for a business loan
Founded 8$1 Billion Dollar Businesses
College dropout
Dumped from the company he founded
Next business was a near failure
Largest Market Cap in the World
Fired as CEO while on vacation
Spent every dime he had to keep his next company afloat
Other company he founded literally crashed and burned
$32 Billion Market Cap
$12 Billion Valuation
Moore’s Law 50th Anniversary
Moore’s Law
2000 2015$0.04
$7.03
Cost of Computing (per MM transistors)
Source: Deloitte
98% decline
2000 2015$0.02
$4.77
Cost of Storage (per GB)
Source: Deloitte
99% decline
1990: $20KToday: $1
Source: Deloitte
Global Internet Users (billions)
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2015
3.12.2
1.51.0
0.70.30.1
21% CAGR
Source: Internet Live Stats
2.0 B+ Smart Phone Users
Source: eMarketer
2012 2013 2014 2015 (P) 2016 (P) 2017 (P)
270225
180140
10070
Android and iOS App Downloads (billions)
Source: Gartner
31% CAGR
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Sao Paulo
Mumbai
Shanghai
Dubai
Global Silicon Valley
ImagiNation
Founded: 2004
Source: Facebook, World Bank
Population Size
1.5B 1.24B1.35B
Founded: 1921
Founded: 2009
Market Value: $51 Billion
S t . P e t e r ’s S q u a re : 2 0 0 5
S t . P e t e r ’s S q u a re : 2 0 1 3
Founded: 1888
Market Value: Bankrupt
Founded: 2011
Market Value: $15 Billion
Founded: 1957
Market Cap: $7 Billion
Founded: 2008
Market Value: $25 Billion
Things change…
U.S. Workforce Breakdown: 1800
95%
5%
Agriculture
Other
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, GSV Asset Management
Life Expectancy 1800: 37
U.S. Workforce Breakdown: 1900
42%
30%
28%
Services & Information
Agriculture Industrial
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, GSV Asset Management
PLAY LEARN WORK RETIRE
0-5 25-65 65+5-25
Old System1900
“As GM Goes, So Goes the Nation.”
-Charles Wilson CEO, General Motors (1953)
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009
GM Share Price, 2000-2009
Source: CapitalIQ
Only 12% of the Companies on the 1955 List Remain
Since 1990, Fortune 500 Lost 25 Million Jobs…
75 Million Jobs Created by New Businesses
U.S. Workforce Breakdown: 20201%
95%
4%
Services & Information
IndustrialAgriculture
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, GSV Asset Management
Today: 30% of Newborns Will Live to be 100
Source: New York Times
Millennials’ Projected Lifetime
Careers: 15+
Source: Forbes, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
“Siri, make me a
sandwich.”
PLAY WORK RETIRE?
0-5 JOB
LEARN
SCHOOL JOB JOB JOB
New System
ENTREPRENEUR
As the entrepreneur goes, so goes the
Global Silicon Valley
Thank You!
@michaelmoe
A2Apple Blog
top related