pilot study langeoog estimation of damage for various water levels - using the merk method -

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Pilot study LangeoogEstimation of Damage for various water levels

- Using the MERK Method -

Holger BlumNLWK Norden

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

• To test the method: theoretical water levels - First approach

• Estimation of Damage(based on MERK - method)

• Visualisation of Intangible / Tangible damages

• Results

OutlineOutline

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

• No Dikes

• Same water level above the reference surface (mNN) covering the investiagtion area

• Damage due to the process of breaching of a dike or dune (Impact Zone) is ignored

• High water level will fall within ~ 24 hours to normal level

Assumptions for the Damage EstimationAssumptions for the Damage Estimation

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

• Minimum Level = NN + 1.6 m (~ high water at spring tide)

• Maximum Level = NN + 5.1 m(design water level at present)

• Variation of water level by steps of 0.5 m

First ApproachFirst Approach

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Inundated area by NN + 1.6 m floodInundated area by NN + 1.6 m flood

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Inundated area by NN + 2.1 m floodInundated area by NN + 2.1 m flood

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Inundated area by NN + 2.6 m floodInundated area by NN + 2.6 m flood

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Inundated area by NN + 3.1 m floodInundated area by NN + 3.1 m flood

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Inundated area by NN + 3.6 m floodInundated area by NN + 3.6 m flood

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Inundated area by NN + 4.1 m floodInundated area by NN + 4.1 m flood

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Inundated area by NN + 4.6 m floodInundated area by NN + 4.6 m flood

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Inundated area by NN + 5.1 m floodInundated area by NN + 5.1 m flood

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

• The investigation done by Uni Kiel:- microscale valuation (field work)- Damage potential by heights and spatial

distribution (georeferenced)

• Damage estimation done by NLWK:- Analysis of affected areas and objects- Calculation of estimated damage - Generalization of results

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

• Object related damages

• (flooded) Area related damages

Estimation of Damage (intangible) Estimation of Damage (intangible)

Affected Guest Beds

Affected Inhabitants

Evacuated Inhabitants

(Drinking water supply)

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimation of Damage (intangible) Estimation of Damage (intangible)

Affected Guest Beds

Affected Inhabitants

Evacuated Inhabitants

IF water_level_in_building > 0 THEN „AFFECTED“ = True

Flooding of Ground floor ==> 100% of beds / 100% of inhabitants in this building are affected

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimation of Damage (intangible) Estimation of Damage (intangible)

Affected Guest Beds

Affected Inhabitants

Evacuated Inhabitants

IF water_level_at_highest_floor > 0

THEN „EVACUATION_essential“ = True

• No “dry place” in the building• Different numbers and heights of the floors are taken

into account• A real evacuation will affect more persons.

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.1 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.1 m)

Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds

0 - 1

2 - 9

10 - 250

251 - 500

501 - 750

751 - 1000

1001 - 1250

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.6 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.6 m)

Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds

0 - 1

2 - 9

10 - 250

251 - 500

501 - 750

751 - 1000

1001 - 1250

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.1 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.1 m)

Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds

0 - 1

2 - 9

10 - 250

251 - 500

501 - 750

751 - 1000

1001 - 1250

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.6 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.6 m)

Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds

0 - 1

2 - 9

10 - 250

251 - 500

501 - 750

751 - 1000

1001 - 1250

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.1 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.1 m)

Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds

0 - 1

2 - 9

10 - 250

251 - 500

501 - 750

751 - 1000

1001 - 1250

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.6 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.6 m)

Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds

0 - 1

2 - 9

10 - 250

251 - 500

501 - 750

751 - 1000

1001 - 1250

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 5.1 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 5.1 m)

Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds

0 - 1

2 - 9

10 - 250

251 - 500

501 - 750

751 - 1000

1001 - 1250

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)

Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)

Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)

Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)

Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)

Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)

Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)

Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)

Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)

Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)

Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)

Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)

Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)

Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)

Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants

0 - 1

2 - 5

6 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 150

151 - 175

176 - 200

201 - 300

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

• Beginning at a water level of NN + 2.6 m evacuation will be essential

• Some building in the southern part of the island will be isolated. Some inhabitants of those houses should be evacuated.

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Est. Evacuated inhabitants Est. Evacuated inhabitants

0

100

200

300

400

500

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

Water Level [müNN]

Nu

mb

er o

f e

vac

ua

ted

Inh

abit

ants

[-]

Number of Evac.Inhabitants

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

• Object related damages

• (flooded) Area related damages

Estimation of Damage (tangile) Estimation of Damage (tangile)

Buildings

Private Inventory

Fixed Assets

Stock Value

Vehicles

Lifestock Assets

Gross Value Added

Evacuation Costs

Traffic Areas and Recreational Land

Agricultural Land

Based on the mircoscale valuation of Langeoog and according to the MERK-formulas (REESE 2003)

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Damage Estimation - Assumptions (1)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (1)

Buildings

Private Inventory

Fixed Assets

Stock Value

Vehicles

Lifestock Assets

Gross Value Added

Evacuation Costs

Traffic Areas and Recreational Land

Agricultural Land

• Evacuation rates: Private Inv. = 5% / 40%Fixed Assets = 0% / 30%Stock value = 5% / 20%

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Damage Estimation - Assumptions (2)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (2)

Buildings

Private Inventory

Fixed Assets

Stock Value

Vehicles

Lifestock Assets

Gross Value Added

Evacuation Costs

Traffic Areas and Recreational Land

Agricultural Land

• Evacuation rate = 80 %

• No damage to aero-planes, railway engines or railway carriage is taken into account

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Damage Estimation - Assumptions (3)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (3)

Buildings

Private Inventory

Fixed Assets

Stock Value

Vehicles

Lifestock Assets

Gross Value Added

Evacuation Costs • Loss of 55%(Lost animals and reduced production)Traffic Areas and

Recreational Land

Agricultural Land

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Damage Estimation - Assumptions (4)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (4)

Buildings

Private Inventory

Fixed Assets

Stock Value

Vehicles

Lifestock Assets

Gross Value Added

Evacuation Costs • The Flood persists for one day.water level NN+5.1m: Damage to Gross value added per day = 114.000 €

Traffic Areas and Recreational Land

Agricultural Land

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Damage Estimation - Assumptions (5)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (5)

Buildings

Private Inventory

Fixed Assets

Stock Value

Vehicles

Lifestock Assets

Gross Value Added

Evacuation Costs • Costs: 150 €/pers.

Traffic Areas and Recreational Land

Agricultural Land

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Damage Estimation - Assumptions (6)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (6)

Buildings

Private Inventory

Fixed Assets

Stock Value

Vehicles

Lifestock Assets

Gross Value Added

Evacuation Costs• Damage

to Traffic Areas and Recreational Land (Cost of Cleaning)

3.6 €/m² (unsurfaced)6.0 €/m² (paved)

Traffic Areas and Recreational Land

Agricultural Land

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Damage Estimation - Assumptions (7)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (7)

Buildings

Private Inventory

Fixed Assets

Stock Value

Vehicles

Lifestock Assets

Gross Value Added

Evacuation Costs

• Damage:

0.01 €/m² (greenland)

0.50 €/m² (farmland)

Traffic Areas and Recreational Land

Agricultural Land

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 2.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 2.1 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 250.000

250.001 - 1.000.000

1.000.001 - 2.000.000

2.000.001 - 4.000.000

4.000.001 - 6.000.000

6.000.001 - 8.000.000

8.000.001 - 10.000.000

= 1,662,000 €

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 2.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 2.6 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 250.000

250.001 - 1.000.000

1.000.001 - 2.000.000

2.000.001 - 4.000.000

4.000.001 - 6.000.000

6.000.001 - 8.000.000

8.000.001 - 10.000.000

= 6,720,000 €

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 3.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 3.1 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 250.000

250.001 - 1.000.000

1.000.001 - 2.000.000

2.000.001 - 4.000.000

4.000.001 - 6.000.000

6.000.001 - 8.000.000

8.000.001 - 10.000.000

= 18,775,000 €

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 3.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 3.6 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 250.000

250.001 - 1.000.000

1.000.001 - 2.000.000

2.000.001 - 4.000.000

4.000.001 - 6.000.000

6.000.001 - 8.000.000

8.000.001 - 10.000.000

= 30,685,000 €

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 4.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 4.1 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 250.000

250.001 - 1.000.000

1.000.001 - 2.000.000

2.000.001 - 4.000.000

4.000.001 - 6.000.000

6.000.001 - 8.000.000

8.000.001 - 10.000.000

= 46,828,000 €

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 4.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 4.6 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 250.000

250.001 - 1.000.000

1.000.001 - 2.000.000

2.000.001 - 4.000.000

4.000.001 - 6.000.000

6.000.001 - 8.000.000

8.000.001 - 10.000.000

= 63,637,000 €

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 5.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 5.1 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 250.000

250.001 - 1.000.000

1.000.001 - 2.000.000

2.000.001 - 4.000.000

4.000.001 - 6.000.000

6.000.001 - 8.000.000

8.000.001 - 10.000.000

= 82,413,000 €

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 2.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 2.1 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 25.000

25.001 - 100.000

100.001 - 200.000

200.001 - 400.000

400.001 - 600.000

600.001 - 800.000

800.001 - 10.000.000

Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 2.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 2.6 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 25.000

25.001 - 100.000

100.001 - 200.000

200.001 - 400.000

400.001 - 600.000

600.001 - 800.000

800.001 - 10.000.000

Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 3.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 3.1 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 25.000

25.001 - 100.000

100.001 - 200.000

200.001 - 400.000

400.001 - 600.000

600.001 - 800.000

800.001 - 10.000.000

Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 3.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 3.6 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 25.000

25.001 - 100.000

100.001 - 200.000

200.001 - 400.000

400.001 - 600.000

600.001 - 800.000

800.001 - 10.000.000

Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 4.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 4.1 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 25.000

25.001 - 100.000

100.001 - 200.000

200.001 - 400.000

400.001 - 600.000

600.001 - 800.000

800.001 - 10.000.000

Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 4.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 4.6 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 25.000

25.001 - 100.000

100.001 - 200.000

200.001 - 400.000

400.001 - 600.000

600.001 - 800.000

800.001 - 10.000.000

Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Estimated damage by NN + 5.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 5.1 m flood

Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]

0 - 25.000

25.001 - 100.000

100.001 - 200.000

200.001 - 400.000

400.001 - 600.000

600.001 - 800.000

800.001 - 10.000.000

Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

Water Level [müNN]

Est

imat

ed

Da

mag

e [E

uro

]

BuildingsPrivate InventoryFixed AssetsStock ValueVehiclesLifestock AssetsGross Value AddedEvacuation CostsAgricultrual LandTraffic Areas and Recreational LandTotal

Sum total –All damage categoriesSum total –All damage categories

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

Water Level [müNN]

Est

imat

ed

Da

mag

e [E

uro

]

Stock ValueVehiclesLifestock AssetsGross Value AddedEvacuation CostsAgricultrual LandTraffic Areas and Recreational Land

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1water level [mNN]

Agricultrual Land

Traffic Areas andRecreational LandEvacuation Costs

Gross Value Added

Lifestock Assets

Vehicles

Stock Value

Fixed Assets

Private Inventory

Buildings

Rate of damage category to totalRate of damage category to total

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

• Major damage categories:

• Minor damage categories: (< 1.5% of total) Vehicles

Lifestock Assets

Gross Value Added

Evacuation Costs

Agricultrual Land

First ResultsFirst Results

Buildings 18% - 48%

Private Inventory 22% - 31%

Fixed Assets 14% - 20%

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Thesis: Higher water levels cause higher damages.

• Plausibility check of MERK – formulas, implementation and data processing

• useful method but costly

First ResultsFirst Results

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

• In a 2nd approach the modelling of flooding will be taken into account: Hydraulic boundary conditions (breaching, tide …)

• The damage to traffic areas and recreational land should be adjusted to the situation of an island.

• Considering all kind of vehicles and other evacuation rates?

OutlookOutlook

NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden

Thank You For Your Attention!