phd -kumar

Spatial Planning to Integrate Climate

Change Adaptation at Local Level

Ph.D. Candidate (Cycle-27)

Parveen Kumar

Doctoral supervisor

Prof. Davide Geneletti

Climate change discussion in various forums

Climate change discussion in various forums

German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2007

Risks associated with climate change

IPCC,2014 (WG-II)

IPCC,2014 (WG-II)

Policies and decision interplay

?

Conflicting policies and decision

Lack of tools and methods

Translation of climate science knowledge at

local level

Lack of understanding of the core issues

Key gaps

Key gaps for effective integration of climate issues

Aim

Understanding climate change risks and perceptions in spatial

planning policies at local level.

□ By investigating spatial planning policies

□ Developing assessment framework and decision support

system

That aims to improve current spatial planning practices and

planning tools to build resilient living spaces.

To develop and test an assessment framework to

evaluate integration of climate change

Objective 1

Research questions

□ Synergy among climate science information and

planning policies

□ Extent of integration of climate issues into spatial

policies

□ Key gaps to address climate change issues

Climate policy architecture in India

□ Water stress

□ Food security

□ Impact on natural ecosystems

□ Impact of physical development

□ Impact on human health

□ Increased energy consumption

National action plan for climate

change (NAPCC)

8 National Mission

□ National Solar mission

□ Sustainable habitat

□ Sustaining Himalayan ecosystem

State level climate policies

(10 states)

Local Level (Urban or rural )

□ Development policies

□ Sectoral policies

Expanding faster than urban population

Modify surrounding environment and natural resources

Account for 60-75% of total GHG emission

Influence the economy

Urban area and climate change

issues

Climate change issues at local spatial scale

Review framework

Method

Selection of plans

Population

Status of the region

Capacity

Risk /stress variable

Accessibility of spatial plans and

policies

No of cities 46

No of spatial plans 59

Case study: India

Policy analysis

□ Organisational analysis

□ Content analysis

Criterion analysis

□ Breadth analysis ( measure the extent to which each criterion were

addressed across all the spatial plans)

Breadth Analysis(BS) 𝑗 = ( 𝑃𝑗 𝑁) ∗ 100

□ Depth analysis(Measures how much importance is given for each

criterion in the spatial plan)

Depth score(DS) 𝑗= ( 𝑗=1

𝑃𝑗𝐼𝑗 2𝑃𝑗) ∗ 100

Method

Tang et al., (2010)

Results : Overall performance of spatial plans

Scale range 0 to 80

Variables Awareness Analysis Action

Mean 0.09 0.23 0.20

Std. Deviation 0.16 0.12 0.12

Minimum 0.00 0.00 0.04

Maximum 0.88 0.55 0.65

Results : Performance by components

Scale range 0 to 1

Results : Performance by the criterion (component)

Awareness/Analysis/Action Breadth %

Depth%

Highlights

□ Framework focuses on processes and potential outcome

□ Highlights keys weaknesses in the planning practices to

integrate of climate concerns

□ Helps to improve objectives of climate change integration issue

within spatial policies or sector policies at local level

To develop working methodology of vulnerability

assessment to climate change and test it at different

spatial scales to identify the hot spots of climate change

Objective 2

Research questions

□ Basis of vulnerability assessment and its usability

□ Prioritising response actions

□ Perception of people, socio-ecological context and

institutional arrangement

''The degree to which a system is susceptible to adverse effects

of climate change, including climate variability and extremes''.McCarthy (2001)

V = f 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 , 𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 , 𝐴𝑑𝑎𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦

Füssel et al. and McCarthy (2006; 2001)

Where;

Exposure = magnitude to which a system is exposed to significant

climatic related events

Sensitivity = extent to which a system is affected

Adaptive Capacity = capacity of a system to organize itself to the

external and internal stresses and respond to them

Vulnerability

Component Criteria Criteria example

Exposure C1 Hot days/year (Tmax>30º C)

C2 Mean temperature Increase

:

Cn

Sensitivity C1 Infrastructure

C2 Poor living and built conditions

:

Cn

Adaptive

Capacity

C1 Livelihoods and awareness

C2 Green infrastructure

:

Cn

Examples of Criteria under component

Spatial analysis

□ Criteria assessment

□ Weighing

□ Criteria aggregation

□ Sensitivity analysis

□ Cluster analysis

Working methodology

Case studies and climate change concerns

1

2

Bangalore

Darjeeling

State Karnataka

District Bangalore

Urban

Area 1,276 km2

Population 9.6 million

Density 7,500/km2

Case study: Bangalore

□ Literature review

□ Primary survey

□ Secondary survey

Component Criteria example

Exposure

A 1, 4

Hot days/year (>30º C)

Mean temperature Increase

Number of days/year with heavy rain

(RR >30mm)

Sensitivity

A 3, 8

Area covered by road

Percentage of people younger than 6

years

Loss of lakes and wetland area

Adaptive

Capacity

A 3, 10

Percentage of household having

banking facilities

Percentage of households having

drinking water connection

Green space/ per person

Selection of criteria and data collection

Exposure

□ Number of days of

temperature above

30 ͦ C

□ Mean temperature

□ Rainfall greater than

830 mm

□ Number of days

above 30 mm rain

Spatial distribution of the exposure

Sensitivity

□ Physical and economic

aspect

□ Social aspect

□ Environmental aspects

Spatial distribution of the sensitivity

• Infrastructure

• Poor living & built conditions

• Land use change

Adaptive capacity

□ Social aspect

□ Basic facilities aspects

□ Ecological aspects

Spatial distribution of the adaptive capacity

Potential vulnerability distribution and clusters

Criteria

Vulnerability profiling

State West Bengal

District Darjeeling

Area 3,149 km2

Population 1.8 million

Density 584/km2

Case study: Darjeeling District of Eastern Himalaya

Potential vulnerability distribution

Perception of vulnerability: Household level

M/RM/R

P/U

M/U

Perception of households at site level: Component

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

Highlights

□ Pattern and magnitude of climate change vulnerability

□ Practical challenges of its application

□ Criteria analysis helps to assess concerns and make trade-off

decisions

□ Application of methodology shows robustness and usability at

different spatial and socio-ecological settings

To apply ecosystem based adaptation responses to

climate change at local level and identifying barriers

Objective 3

Research questions

□ Relationships between ecosystem services and

climatic vulnerability

□ Effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation

responses to climate change

Ecosystem services

Ecosystem services (ES)Benefits human populations derive from the ecosystems, such as goods and

products, regulation of natural processes and nonmaterial benefits.

EbA responseManagement of land, water and living resources that promotes conservation

and sustainable use to adapt or to mitigate the adverse effects of climate

change.

UNEP (2014)

Naumann et a l.,(2011)

Provisioning

(Goods provided

by ES)

Food, fresh

water, wood,

fibre

Regulating

(Benefits obtained

from regulation of

ES process )

Climate regulation

, flood control ,

detoxification

Cultural

(Non-material

benefits obtained

from ES)

Spiritual ,

recreational ,

symbolic

Supporting

(Services

necessary for the

production of other

ES)

Soil formation,

nutrient cycling,

primary production

MA (2005)

State West Bengal

District Darjeeling

Villages 6

Population 969

Case study: Darjeeling District of Eastern Himalaya

1

2

34

5

6

Method: Ecosystem based adaptation responses

Land use change analysis

• Changes in climate variables

• Land use change analysis and scenarios development

Socio-economic analysis

• Understand the socio-economic structure

• Concerns of climate change for different villages in the selected site

Ecosystem services analysis

• Potential ecosystem services identified

• Selection of few ecosystem services for further analysis

Eastman, 2009; Geneletti, 2013 Eastman, 2015; Sharp, 2014

Land use change analysis

Business as usual (LU-2030B):

□ Forest policies (promotes plantation of new species of trees , forest

management)

□ Intensive agriculture practices

Conservation (LU-2030C):

□ Forest conservation

□ Ecosystem based agriculture practices

□ Landscape oriented and climate resilient infrastructure and physical

development

□ Climate resilient land use planning

Land use change analysis

Land use change analysis

Ecosystem services

Category Sub-Category Example

Provisioning Food production Tea, Cardamom, tomato, wheat and fruits

Livestock Sheep, Got, Poultry , Pigs

Forest products Timber production, honey

Fresh water Water yield for agriculture and human use

Regulating Air quality Air purification

Climate regulation CO2 sequestration

Habitat

maintaining

Biodiversity and natural protected areas

Water regulation Water in-filtration, hydropower

Erosion control Terraces, deforestation

Soil retention Landslide, water courses and riversides

Cultural Spiritual value Home to spiritual tribes

Nature tourism Hiking, mountain activities and home stay

Fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n

Tim

be

r p

rod

uctio

n

EbA based on future land use scenario

Highlights

□ Land-use scenarios helps to represent the possible effects of

climate concern at local spatial scale

□ Comparative analysis among EbA helps to make trade-off

decisions

□ Socio-economic perceptions help to link climate change

concerns and EbA benefit

□ Pilot study helps to understand how small changes in local

planning practices improve climate change integration

□ This study helps to develop tools which can provide quality information to

support decision making at local level.

□ Developed assessment framework to evaluate policy at local level is a

promising tool to understand and monitor integration of climate change

issues.

□ Developed vulnerability assessment framework integrate different aspects

and elements of local spatial scale and spatial policies

□ Vulnerability assessment framework assess present and future problem

areas that need urgent policies or response actions

□ Developed pilot study is an effective way to spatially visualize the

effectiveness of different land use scenario and EbA response.

□ Help to initiate climate change debate into physical development and

resources management policies in current extreme events.

Synthesis

7.9 Magnitude Earthquake in Nepal, Tremors Felt Across India

Total death toll exceeds 4000 civilians , 25/04/2015

1. Kumar, P. (2012). Spatial planning and climate change. Impact

Assessment and Project Appraisal, 30(4), 303-304.

2. Kumar, P., Geneletti, D. (2015). How are climate change concerns

addressed by spatial plans? An evaluation framework and an

application to Indian cities. Land Use Policy, 42(0), 210-226.

3. Kumar, P., Geneletti, D., Nagendra, H. (2015). Spatial assessment

of climate change vulnerability at city scale (under review

Environmental Impact Assessment Review).

4. Kumar, P., Geneletti, D., Bawa,K. (manuscript in preparation).

Spatial vulnerability assessment and perception of people to climate

change in Darjeeling Himalaya.

5. Kumar, P., Geneletti, D. (manuscript in preparation). Assessing the

effects of ecosystem based policies for adaptation to climate

change: Darjeeling Himalaya.

Academic and scientific output

□ Indo- US bilateral workshop on 'Adaptation of rural communities to

climate change: Bridging the gap between academia and community

workers and identifying research needs' at Ashoka Trust for

Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Bangalore,

India from Feb 20-21, 2014

□ Documentary on Eastern Himalayas: Climate Change, A project

developed by Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the

Environment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHBCuvl5ICI&feature=youtu.be

Non-scientific output

Committee members

Prof. Davide Geneletti

Prof. Kamal Bawa

Prof. Harini Nagendra

ATREE, Bangalore and Darjeeling

ARPAN Darjeeling

PLANES research group at UNITN

Maitreyi Sur

Special thanks

Content

□ Background

□ Aim and objectives

□ Objective 1

□ Objective 2

□ Objective 3

□ Synthesis

□ Output

Future work

□ How climate policies at higher spatial scales can be integrated

into local policies, streamlining response actions on ground

and implementation structure

□ Future vulnerability assessment study will also include the

future projection of exposure component

□ Focus on developing more scenarios and quantifying the

effectiveness of each scenario for comparison and informed

decision-making

□ Develop hybrid climate adaptation response action and make

comparison