perspectives on africa’s development perspectives on africa’s development. :focus on zambia and...
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Perspectives on Africa’s Perspectives on Africa’s DevelopmentDevelopment
.
:focus on Zambia and Japan
Katsumi HIRANO
Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)
GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa (current dollars)The volume of Africa’s GDP is correlated withresources’ price (coefficient: 0.902)
(billion $)
1980
2002
($)
Total GDP ofSub-Saharan Africa
Oil price
Zambia’s GDP (current dollar)correlation coefficient: 0.945
Zambia’s GDP
Metal index
(billion $) ($)
FDI/GDP ratioNow Africa has got relatively much FDI
Sub-Saharan Africa
China
Zambia
Importers from Africa
France UKGermany
Japan
US
China
(billion $)
Exporters to Africa
0
10
20
30
40
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
(billion $)
France
UK
Germany
Japan
US
China
Japan’s trade with Africapercentages in the total export and import
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
export
import
Trade with individual African countries (2007)
Japanese importof automobiles
Japanese import of platinum
Japanese exportof automobiles
Main items in our trade with AfricaBig presence of automobile industry(million $)
Japanese FDI toward Africaexpanding for natural resources($ million)
To Africa
To South Africa
Japan has found ‘national interest’ in Africa • Resource security
• To share natural resources with growing China
• To establish sustainable relationship between resource-rich Africa and Asian manufacturing
• As a urgent mission, to secure second suppliers of rare metals, especially rare earth elements next to China and South AfricaIf those be found in Zambia…
JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals Corporation)
• Botswana Geologic Remote Sensing Centre, Lobatse
• MOUs and Investment Agreements with SADC countries
• F/S support for infrastructure building needed for mining development
• Established JOGMEC investment arm
• Joint operation with Australian companies in South Africa and Botswana
• Academic support to Botswana and Mongol
Ajinomoto (seasoning)
Sumitomo Co.(nickel, cobalt)
Mitsubishi Co.(ferrochrome)
ToyotaNissan
KomatsuHitachiToshiba
YKK(fastening)
Toyota Tsusho(automobile)
Sumitomo Chemical(Olyset-Net)
Panasonic(battery)
JT(tobacco)
Mitsui Co., Itochu(natural gas)
Mitsui Co., Marubeni(natural gas)
Mitsubishi Co.(aluminum)
Honda (motorcycle)
Leading Japanese companies in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sonny
Swaziland
Mozambique
Madagascar
Tanzania
South Africa
Namibia
Equatorial Guinea
Nigeria
Kenya
HitachiConstructionMachinery
Zambia
Ambatovy Project in Madagascar
• 3.3 billion dollars to 9.3 billion dollars GDP
• Sherritt Intrenational (40%), Sumitomo Corporation (27.5%), Korea Resources (27.5%), SNC Lavalin (5%)
• Madagascar will be 3.8% Nickel producer and 8.3% cobalt producer in the world. Its GDP will be doubled.
• Mining, smelting, transportation system, port building, food production, CSR activities, etc.
• But, 2009 coup d'état
‘Resource Curse’Economic Growth led by natural resources goes against Development
• Dutch Disease →retreat of production
• Rentier State →apathy to development
• Governance theory in Economics
• Political Science on Sub-Saharan Africa
Weak State, Collapsed State, Predatory State, Kleptocracy State, Vampire State, etc.
Exchange rates (year of 2000=100)
Zambia
Equatorial Guinea
Nigeria
South Africa
Index of ‘control of corruption’
Zambia
Nigeria
Chad
Equatorial Guinea
Sudan
Angola
Index of ‘government effectiveness’
Zambia
Nigeria
Chad
Equatorial Guinea
Sudan
Angola
The current situations of Japanese ODA
• Fundamental changes comparing with the assumption in ODA Charter 2003
SSA-centered
Grant-centered
• Budgetary limited
required more persuasive logics
required more up-to-date methodology
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
(million $)
East Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East
Regional distribution of Japanese ODA (2007 constant prices)
Japan does not provide ODA to East Asia?
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