perspectives of the northern sea routes in the 21st century from model simulations vyacheslav khon...
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Perspectives of the Northern Sea Routes in
the 21st century from model simulations
Vyacheslav Khon 1,2, Igor Mokhov 1, Mojib Latif 3,
Vladimir Semenov 1,3, Wonsun Park 3
khon@ifaran.ru, vsemenov@ifm-geomar.de
(1) A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (Moscow)(2) Institute of Geosciences, University of Kiel(3) Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR)
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Objectives
• To estimate navigation season length along the Northern Sea Route from satellite data and model simulations
• To assess consequences of climatic changes for the economical benefit and perspective of the Arctic transport systems in the 21st century
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Changes of September Arctic sea ice extent (1979-2008)
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
ObservationsSatellite data (SMMR-SSM/I) Sea-ice concentration, daily data 25x25 km (1979-2007)
IPCC-AR4 Global Climate Modelsanthropogenic scenario SRES-A1BSea-ice concentration, daily data (1900-2100)
To determine the current changes in the Arctic sea ice cover we used satellite data for the sea ice concentration at high spatial (25-km grid) and temporary (daily) resolution during the last 30 years. To estimate the possible changes in the Arctic basin in the 21st century we analyzed results of simulations with the IPCC-AR4 ensemble of global climate models.
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
IPCC-AR4 Global Climate Models
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Mean, days
240 260 280 300 320 340 360
Ch
ang
e, d
ays
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
BCM2CCSM3CGCM3-T47CGCM3-T63CNRMCSIRO3.0CSIRO3.5ECHAM5ECHO-GGFDL2.0GFDL2.1GISS-AOMGISS-ERHadCM3HadGEM1INMIPSLKCMMIROC-HRMIROC-ERMRIObservations
Long-term means and changes of the ice season length along the NSR (1980-1999): observations and model simulations
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Ice season length (days) simulated by global climate models (1980-1999)
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Ice season length (days) averaged over selected ‘best’ models
and by satellite data (1980-1999)Satellite data Multi-model mean
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Changes of sea ice season length (days): satellite data in comparison to multi-model simulations (1998-2007 relative to 1979-1988)
Satellite data Multi-model mean
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Ice season length changes by the end of the 21st century: multi-model average for 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999
Annual mean December-May June-November
Change of the ice season length (months)
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Navigation season length along the NSR and NWP from satellites and climate models (A1B scenario)
Khon et al. 2009
Soft criterion
Navigation season length along the NSR from satellites and the ‘best’ climate model HadGEM1 (A1B scenario)
Years
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Satellite dataHadGEM1
Years
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Na
vig
ati
on
se
as
on
le
ng
th,
da
ys
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Satellite dataHadGEM1
50% ice concentration30% ice concentration
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Rigid criterion
Economical aspects
• The increase of marine navigation season may significantly reduce expenses, shorten mean shipping time and diminish the risks.
• Increased reliability and decreased transit traffic cost may significantly raise a commercial attraction of the Arctic transportation (compared to the Suez or Panama Canals).
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Ice extent (106 km2)
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Fre
igh
t ra
te (
US
D/t
)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Freight rate for the Europe-Asia transit through the NSR (40,000 DWT container ship) as a function of the sea ice extent
in the NSR sector (30E-190E; 60N-90N)
Linear regression coefficient ≈ 3$/(t 106km2)
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Years1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Monthly freight rateAnnual mean freight rateSuez Canal transit rate (Kitagawa, 2001)
Fre
igh
t ra
te (
no
rmal
ized
)
Monthly (dashed) and annual (solid) mean freight rates for the Europe-Asia transit through the NSR (normalized to SC transit
rate) from multi-model simulations with A1B scenario
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
• The multi-model means over selected ‘best’ models for the present climate are in a good agreement with observations.
• Simulations show prolongation of the NSR navigation season with about 4-5 months of free passage by the end of 21st century according to A1B scenario.
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
Conclusions
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
• Economical benefit from the Arctic transportation may become competitive to the traditional Europe-Asia routes through the Suez or Panama Canals by the middle of the 21st century
• According to the model estimates, the year-round transit cost from western Europe to the Far East through the NSR may be lower by 15% in comparison with transit through the Suez Canal by the end of the 21st century
• To make use of the NSR potential, however, a considerable modernization of the Arctic transport system and construction of new ice reinforced container ships is required.
Conclusions
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
• Khon, V.C., I.I. Mokhov, M. Latif, V.A. Semenov, and W. Park (2009) Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the 21st century, Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9683-2 (published on-line).
• Mokhov, I.I., V.C. Khon, and E. Roeckner (2007) Variations in the ice cover of the Arctic Basin in the 21st century based on model simulations: Estimates of the perspectives of the Northern Sea Route, Dokl. Earth Sci., 415, 759-763.
Publications
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
The presented above results are based on a “linear approach”
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Stroeve et al. 2007: Climate model projections
21st century
IPCC AR4: Arcric sea ice observations
HadISST1.1 sea iceand Arctic temperature
Is the recent sea ice melt unprecedented?
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
HadISST1.1 + All forcing
Atmospheric GCM (ECHAM5) forced by HadISST1.1 data
Impact of the natural multi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic on Arctic sea ice suggests a slowdown of the sea ice decrease in the following decades
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
NA THC
International Polar Year Oslo Science Conference, 8-12 June 2010
Semenov V.A.
1. Validation of the early 20th century sea ice data in the Arctic: a GCM approach
2. The role of the Arctic as an amplifier of climate variability and change
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Thank you for your attention!
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
Arctic sea ice extent from satellite data
September 2007 September 2008
TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden
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