pathways of future emissions & climate change for the australian adaptation practitioner malte...
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Pathways of future emissions & climate changeFor the Australian Adaptation Practitioner
Malte Meinshausen, 26th June 2012The University of Melbourne & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Thanks to Urs Beyerle, T. Corti, J. Arblaster, D. Karoly, J. Rogelj, K. Frieler, L. Warzawski.
International Emission Targets for Australia:5% 2020 Pledge seems slow start for reaching 2050.
High 2020 Pledge of -25% below 2000 – roughly in line with -80% by 2050
Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data.
Australia’s domestic mitigation important.Australia’s coal associated with big emissions overseas.
CO2 Emissions due to the overseas burning of coal
from a single new Australian coal mine
(1.31 GtCO2 over its 30 year lifetime; Wandoan XSTRATA, Queensland)
Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data. For Wandoan case, see more information at: http://www.envlaw.com.au/wandoan.html
The new “SRES” scenarios for climate model
intercomparisons: The Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs).
Cf. Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
Global Peaking of Emissions before 2020 essential.
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
“Adaptation challenge” due to negative emission necessity: How can large biomass & CCS
implementation take place without endangering food
production, ecosystems etc?
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
International goal: Keeping warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels (with likely chance). In the long-term, this target is slightly more stringent
than 450ppm CO2eq.
International UNFCCC language on 2C target: “[…] reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 ºC above preindustrial levels […]”Cancún Agreements (2010), Decision 1/CP.16, para I.4
“Noting with grave concern the significant gap between […] pledges […] and […] pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 ºC or 1.5 ºC above pre-industrial levels”Durban Platform (2011), Decision 1/CP.17, preamble
Upper inlet: Hansen et al. PNAS, submitted, Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature
Context: +2°C warming last time maybe 3 to 5 Million
years ago.
Multi-model historical experiments with climate
models (AOGCMs and ESMs) in the latest/ongoing
intercomparison project “CMIP5”: Unprecedented
amounts of data.
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
Following the highest future emission scenario: Crossing
global warming of +2°C by 2040, +5°C by 2100...
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
... and +12°C by 2200 ?!
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
RCP4.5 heading for +2.5 to +3°C in long-
term.
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
RCP3-PD/2.6 staying below 2°C with likely
chance.
Fig. 3 in Frieler, Meinshausen et al. 2012, J. Clim, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00199.1
Regional Change of precipitation & temperature
important for impacts & adaptation -> high correlation
with global-mean temperatures.
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1) ISI-MIP Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project www.isi-mip.org
2) International Conference on Climate Change Effects24 - 26 April 2013, Potsdam, Germany www.climate-impacts-2013.org
Nature, 16 Feb 2012
Trend preserving bias correctionRCP8.5 Daily temperatures for July,
Amazon region
Bias corrected
Original data from HadGEM2
Source: Frieler et al. ISI-MIP, 2012
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