past, present, and probable future of atmospheric carbon dioxide
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Past, Present, and Probable Future of
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Dr. Robert MacKay
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/CarbonCycle.ppt
Acknowledgement
• Aslam Khalil, PSU Physics
• Clark College
Outline•Introduction/ Motivation•Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change•Recent temperature record•Past CO2•Present CO2•A simple mathematical/conceptual model•Future projections•Future emissions•Discussion
Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing
No Atmosphere
Today’s Atmosphere
John Tyndall ~1867
“The aqueous vapour constitutes a local dam,
by which the temperature at the earth's surface
is deepened; the dam, however, finally
overflows, and we give to space all that we
receive from the sun.”
John Tyndall ~1867“Aqueous vapour is a blanket more necessary to
the vegetable life of England than clothing is to
man. Remove for a single summer-night the
aqueous vapour from the air which overspreads
this country, and you would assuredly destroy
every plant capable of being destroyed by a
freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields
and gardens would pour itself unrequited into
space, and the sun would rise upon an island
held fast in the iron grip of frost.”
Greenhouse Gases
•Water Vapor
•Carbon Dioxide
•Ozone
•Methane
•Nitrous Oxide
•Chlorofluorocarbons
Cooling to offset warming
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Carbon Dioxide in Prehistoric times
Vostok Ice Core data
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/CO2assign.htm
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.html
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
US Carbon emissions through 2004
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
China’s carbon emission through 2004
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
Russia’s carbon emission through 2004
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
India’s carbon emission through 2004
Fossil Fuel Reserves
~40 yrs Oil
~80 yrs Natural gas
~200 years coal
World Population
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
Fossil Fuel ReservesOil
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
Fossil Fuel ReservesNatural Gas
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
Fossil Fuel Reservescoal
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/CarbonCycle.ppt
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