participation in full-time higher education 1996-2010: a ‘home international’ perspective
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Participation in full-time higher education 1996-2010: a ‘home international’
perspective
Linda Croxford and David RaffeUniversity of Edinburgh
Changing Inequalities and Access to a Differentiated HE SystemSeminar at the University of Edinburgh, 14 June 2013
Participation in full-time higher education 1996-2010: a ‘home international’ perspective
Widening participation (WP)• As HE expanded, have more working class/ ethnic minorities
succeeded in entering HE?Home-international differences and devolution• Do trends in participation differ across the UK?• Are these associated with differences in tuition fees following
devolution?Cross-border flows• Which students enter HE in the rest of UK (RUK)?Success rates• How “fair” is the admissions process?
Widening participation (WP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1996 2000 2004 2006 2010
% o
f ent
rant
s
Have disadvantaged groups increased representation? Percent of entrants (UK-domiciled under-21) who were from professional &
managerial, working class and ethnic minority by cohort
Professional & managerialWorking classEthnic minority
As HE expanded, have more working class/ ethnic minorities succeeded in entering HE?
• This was a period of expansion in UK HE: the number of UK-domiciled entrants rose by 53%
• The proportion of ethnic minority entrants increased
• The social class composition of entrants did not change much over the period
Home-international differences and devolution
Devolution: tuition fees
• 1998 an up-front annual fee of £1,000 was introduced across the UK
• 2000 – Scotland replaced fees by a smaller ‘graduate endowment’ (deferred)
• 2006 –England & N Ireland increased fees to £3000 (deferred) - accompanied by ‘fair access’ measures.
• 2007 –Wales - increased fee to £3000, but offset for Welsh students by extra student grant
• 2007 –Scotland- graduate endowment abolished• 2010 – Wales –extra student grant abolished
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010
Have tuition fees influenced inequalities?Intermediate and working class as percent of under-21 entrants to HE, by
country of domicile and cohort
N Ireland
Wales
England
Scotland
1998
All countries
£1000up-front
tuition fee
2000Scotlanddeferred
endowment
2007Wales:
deferredfees
increased to £3000 -
grant
Scotland:endow-
ment abolished
2006England &
NI: fees deferred & increased to £3000
2010
Wales: grant
abolished
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010
Are there different trends across the UK?Ethnic minorities as percent of entrants to HE, by location of domicile and
cohort
London
rest of England
Wales
Scotland
N Ireland
Are there different trends in participation across the UK?
• Working class-participation is highest in Northern Ireland and lowest in Scotland
• The introduction of fees did not reduce working-class access to HE – and in Scotland their abolition did not increase it.
• Ethnic minority participation has increased most in London and (to a lesser extent) in the rest of England
Cross-border flows
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010
Cross-border flows?Percent of entrants going to an HE institution in another country (or region) by
domicile
England (Region)
Wales
Northern Ireland
Scotland
England (Country)
Cross-border flows• Declining proportion of UK students studying in another home
country (home-country trend more than home-region trend)• English and Scottish-domiciled students are least likely to enter
RUK institutions• Even in 2010 around one third of new students from Wales and N
Ireland studied outside their home country• The outflow of students from Wales was matched by an even
larger inflow from the rest of the UK• Most cross-border flows either by English students or to English
institutions• Decline in flow of N Ireland students to Scotland – but flow to
English HEIs remained steady
Factors associated with RUK applications in 2010
England Wales NI ScotlandMale + + -
Ethnic minority - + + +
High social class + + + +
Low social class - - - -
High qualifications + + + +
Low qualifications - - [Chosen subject]
Wales: social impact of fee differentialsDate 2004 2006 2008 2010Fee differential NO YES YES NOWorking class as percent of all applicants 24 26 28 27
Percent applied to non-Welsh institutions:
% of middle class 80 75 71 76 % of working class 69 61 57 65
Percent entered non-Welsh institutions:
% of middle class 49 41 38 43 % of working class 35 29 28 30
Working class as % of all entrants 24 25 27 26
Working class as % of all entrants to Welsh institutions 28 29 30 30
Working class as % of all entrants to non-Welsh institutions 18 19 21 19
Which students enter HE in the rest of UK (RUK)?
• Those applying and entering RUK were most likely to be well-qualified middle-class students seeking places at Russell Group universities
• But many less-qualified students from N Ireland (and Wales) go to post-92 universities in England
• Ethnic minority students from Scotland, N Ireland and Wales more likely to go to England to study
• But ethnic minority students from England more likely to remain in England
• Fee differentials for Welsh students in 2006-8 did not reduce working-class participation
Success rates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1996 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010
Success rates of English-domiciled applicants Percent of applicants entering an HEI by social class and ethnicity
Professional & managerial
Intermediate & working class
Visible ethnic minority
Fair admissions? (results of statistical models of entry to any HE institution)
1. Prior qualifications are main predictor of success2. Applicants from managerial & professional classes had
higher success rates – even after controlling for prior qualifications
3. Ethnic minorities more successful than white applicants4. Applicants from independent schools less successful –
and from FE Colleges more successful5. Effects of 3 and 4 above explained by selectivity of
institutions applied to (analysis of entry to pre-1992 institutions shows opposite effects)
Home country differences in success rates (ie interactions)
• None of the social class effects differed between home countries
• Scottish applicants from independent schools were more likely to gain an HEI place (but no difference in entry to pre-1992 university)
• N Irish and Scottish applicants from FE Colleges were more likely to gain an HEI place
• Ethnic minority students from Scotland were less likely to gain an HEI place
Finally
This study shows:• The persistence of social inequalities in
participation in HE;• Similarity in inequalities between home countries
– but compositional differences;• No effect on inequalities of country differences in
tuition fees;• Slight decline in cross-border flows – but a
complex pattern
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