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Overview of Methodology for Overview of Methodology for Incorporating Climate Change Incorporating Climate Change in BDCP Impact Assessmentsin BDCP Impact Assessments
BDCP Steering Committee
October 22, 2009
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
BDCP Impacts and Effects AnalysesBDCP Impacts and Effects Analyses
Coordinated effort between state (DWR, DFG) Coordinated effort between state (DWR, DFG) and federal (Reclamation, FWS, and NMFS) and federal (Reclamation, FWS, and NMFS) agenciesagenciesAnalytical processes and tools to support 4 Analytical processes and tools to support 4 environmental documents:environmental documents:
HCP/NCCPHCP/NCCPEIR/SEIR/SBiological AssessmentBiological AssessmentBiological OpinionsBiological Opinions
BDCP Assessment Points in TimeBDCP Assessment Points in TimeProcess seeks Process seeks permit for a 50permit for a 50--yr periodyr periodQuantitative Quantitative analysis to be analysis to be prepared for prepared for disclosure of disclosure of impacts/ impacts/ effects at three effects at three points in timepoints in timeApproximately Approximately 2015, 2025, and 2015, 2025, and 20602060
Key Projected Climate ChangesKey Projected Climate Changes
Global and regional warmingGlobal and regional warmingChanges in precipitation: form, timing, and Changes in precipitation: form, timing, and quantity quantity Changes in runoff quantity and timingChanges in runoff quantity and timingSea level riseSea level rise
Potential Climate Change Impacts to BDCP ElementsPotential Climate Change Impacts to BDCP Elements
Delta Marsh Habitat • Broader area of inundation, upland migration
• Deeper water with increased predation pressures
• Salinity changes effects on vegetation and macro-invertebrate communities
• Changes to thermal refugia
• Changes to invasive species dynamics
Reservoir and Conveyance Facility Management
• Coldwater pool management
• Challenges to flood control operations
• Salinity changes and management
• Timing of water availability for export
• Changes to water supply reliability
Water Quality • Increased Delta salinity intrusion due to sea level rise, levee system failure/island flooding
• Changes to hydrodynamics and mixing
• Increased water temperatures
• Changes to dissolved oxygen
• Effects on water treatment and human health
Anadromous Fish Habitat (upstream)
• Changes to hydrograph and temperature
• Changes to spawning habitat/holding pools
• Timing of spawning and outmigration (life cycle impacts)
• Increased floodplain inundation
Previous State and Federal Efforts to Previous State and Federal Efforts to Incorporate Climate Change in CaliforniaIncorporate Climate Change in California
California Climate Action Team Reports, 2006California Climate Action Team Reports, 2006DWR Progress on Incorporating Climate ChangeDWR Progress on Incorporating Climate Change
Salton Sea Ecosystem Restoration Program, PEIR, 2007Salton Sea Ecosystem Restoration Program, PEIR, 2007State Water Project Reliability Report, 2007State Water Project Reliability Report, 2007Monterey Plus Amendment, EIR, 2007Monterey Plus Amendment, EIR, 2007Operations Criteria and Plan, 2008Operations Criteria and Plan, 2008
USFWS Delta Smelt Biological Opinion, 2008USFWS Delta Smelt Biological Opinion, 2008NMFS Salmon Biological Opinion, 2009NMFS Salmon Biological Opinion, 2009
California Climate Action Team Reports, 2009California Climate Action Team Reports, 2009Delta Risk Management Strategy, 2009Delta Risk Management Strategy, 2009Delta Vision, 2009Delta Vision, 2009BCDC Living with a Rising Bay: Vulnerability and Adaptation RepoBCDC Living with a Rising Bay: Vulnerability and Adaptation Report, 2009 rt, 2009 California Water Plan, OnCalifornia Water Plan, On--goinggoingSan Joaquin River Restoration Program, EIS, OnSan Joaquin River Restoration Program, EIS, On--goinggoingUSACE SF Bay to Stockton NIP, EIS, OnUSACE SF Bay to Stockton NIP, EIS, On--goinggoing
What do the Climate Models Show?What do the Climate Models Show?
Precipitation projections are Precipitation projections are not directionally consistentnot directionally consistentMultiMulti--decadal variability decadal variability complicates period analysiscomplicates period analysis
Temperature signal is strong and Temperature signal is strong and temporallytemporally--consistentconsistent
Projected Annual Temperature Change (Sacramento only)Cumulative Distribution Frequency (112 Emission-Climate Model Projections)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Temperature Change (deg C) Compared to 1971-2000
GC
M P
roje
ctio
n Fr
eque
ncy
(%)
2001-2030
2011-2040
2021-2050
2031-2060
2041-2070
2051-2080
2061-2090
Projected Annual Precipitation Change (Sacramento only)Cumulative Distribution Frequency (112 Emission-Climate Model Projections)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Precip Change (%) Compared to 1971-2000
GC
M P
roje
ctio
n Fr
eque
ncy
(%)
2001-2030
2011-2040
2021-2050
2031-2060
2041-2070
2051-2080
2061-2090
Warming
Less Precip More Precip
Comparison of OCAP and CAT Comparison of OCAP and CAT ScenariosScenarios
At least 112 GCMAt least 112 GCM--emission scenario emission scenario projections have been projections have been downscaled and are downscaled and are availableavailableOCAP selected range OCAP selected range based on 10based on 10thth and 90and 90thth
percentile of annual percentile of annual ∆∆T T and and ∆∆P P CAT scenarios selected CAT scenarios selected based on output based on output availability and availability and historical performancehistorical performance
Regional Climate Change Regional Climate Change Scenario Selection CriteriaScenario Selection Criteria
1.1. Select a range of scenarios to reflect the uncertainty Select a range of scenarios to reflect the uncertainty with GCM projections and emission scenarios;with GCM projections and emission scenarios;
2.2. Select scenarios that reduce the Select scenarios that reduce the ““noisenoise”” inherent with inherent with any particular GCM projection;any particular GCM projection;
3.3. Select an approach that incorporates both the mean Select an approach that incorporates both the mean climate change trend and changes in variability; andclimate change trend and changes in variability; and
4.4. Select time periods that are consistent with the major Select time periods that are consistent with the major phases used in BDCP planning.phases used in BDCP planning.
Scenario Selection ApproachScenario Selection Approach
Develop quadrants Develop quadrants or statistical regions or statistical regions of change (Q1 thru of change (Q1 thru Q5)Q5)Identify projections Identify projections contained within contained within representative representative regionsregionsUtilize all Utilize all projections within projections within regions to develop regions to develop scenariosscenariosApply process for Apply process for every grid cell every grid cell (automated process)(automated process)
2055 Projection
2055 Projection
Relationship between Changes in Period-Mean Annual Precipitation and Temperature: Folsom
(112 projections, evaluated at 2060 [2046-75] relative to 1971-2000)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
89
10
11
12
13
14
1516
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30 3132 33
34
3536
37
40
4142
4344
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
5455
56
57
58 59 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
6869 70
71
72
73
7475
76 77
78
79
808182
83
84
85
868788
8990
9192
9394 95
969798
99
100
101
102 103
104105
106 107
108
109
110
111
112
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Mean Annual Prcp Change (%)
Tavg
Cha
nge
(ºC)
AllCAT2008OCAP2008T75T25P75P25T50P50
Q2
Q1
Q3
Q4
Q5
Climate Scenario Development: ExampleClimate Scenario Development: ExampleGCM Projections Observed Precip
Monthly Precipitation Statistics: Observed vs Projected
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Non-Exceedance Probability (%)
Mon
thly
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
/mo)
Feb - Observed
Feb - Q3 @ 2060
Quantile Mapping: Projection & observed
Adjusted Precip Time SeriesObserved and Projected Precipitation Time Series
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jan-7
8Mar-
78May-7
8Ju
l-78
Sep-78
Nov-78
Jan-7
9Mar-
79May-7
9Ju
l-79
Sep-79
Nov-79
Jan-8
0Mar-8
0May-8
0Ju
l-80
Sep-80
Nov-80
Jan-8
1Mar-8
1May
-81Ju
l-81
Sep-81
Nov-81
Prec
ipita
tion
(in/m
o)
Observed
Q3 Climate Scenario
Sea Level Rise ConsiderationsSea Level Rise ConsiderationsIPCC AR4 estimates are considered IPCC AR4 estimates are considered ““lowlow””
Do not include dynamic instability in Greenland and Do not include dynamic instability in Greenland and AntarticaAntartica ice sheetsice sheetsUnderUnder--predict recent observed sea level rise ratespredict recent observed sea level rise rates
Delta Vision/CALFED ISB recommended using Delta Vision/CALFED ISB recommended using RahmstorfRahmstorf (2007) approach(2007) approachsemisemi--empirical relationship to global air temperatureempirical relationship to global air temperature7070--100 cm (28100 cm (28--40 inches) by 2100, full uncertainty range 5040 inches) by 2100, full uncertainty range 50--140 cm (20140 cm (20--55 inches)55 inches)1212--18 cm (518 cm (5--7 inches) by 2025, 307 inches) by 2025, 30--60 cm (1260 cm (12--24 inches) by 206024 inches) by 2060
CAT 2008 applied CAT 2008 applied RahmstorfRahmstorf’’ss approach using air temp from the 12 CAT approach using air temp from the 12 CAT scenariosscenarios
Similar to range from full 112 projections at 2025 and 2060; butSimilar to range from full 112 projections at 2025 and 2060; but lower at 2100lower at 2100COE issued guidance this yearCOE issued guidance this year
High, medium, and low estimatesHigh, medium, and low estimatesHigh estimates:High estimates:
1.4 m (~4.5 ft) by 2100, ~60 cm (2 ft) by 2060, ~20 cm (0.6 ft) 1.4 m (~4.5 ft) by 2100, ~60 cm (2 ft) by 2060, ~20 cm (0.6 ft) by 2025by 2025BCDC evaluated two scenariosBCDC evaluated two scenarios
40 cm (~16 inches) by 205040 cm (~16 inches) by 20501.4 m (~55 inches) by 21001.4 m (~55 inches) by 2100
Sea Level Rise Estimates from Sea Level Rise Estimates from RahmstorfRahmstorf (2007)(2007)
BCDC 2009USACE 2009Delta Vision/CALFED ISB 2009DWR/CAT 2009OCAP BA 2007/BOs 2008-09
IPCC 2007
15 cm (6 inches)
45 cm (18 inches)
DRMS 2009
Climate Change Uncertainty and Climate Change Uncertainty and Incorporation in Physical ModelingIncorporation in Physical Modeling
Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change: Scenarios (Quadrant Approach)
Q5 (central)Q4Q3Q2Q1
No Climate ChangeSLR (ft)
SSSSSNT, ELT,
LLT0.0
ELTELTELTELTELTS0.5
(central)
S ?1.0
LLTLLTLLTLLTLLTS1.5
(central)
S ?2.0
Un
cert
ain
ty in
Sea
Lev
el R
ise
CALSIM II & DSM2 (FNA + Alternatives)
CALSIM only (FNA + Alternatives bracketing analysis)
No modelingSensitivity Analysis (FNA only)
S
NT = Near-Term; ELT = Early Long-Term; LLT = Late Long-Term; S = Sensitivity analysis; FNA = Future No Action
Making Use of Climate Change ResultsMaking Use of Climate Change ResultsAnalysis teams will have results from scenariosAnalysis teams will have results from scenarios
Without climate change, midWithout climate change, mid--range scenarios, and bracketing scenariosrange scenarios, and bracketing scenariosExample X2 Results With and Without Climate Change
No Action
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Del
ta X
2 Po
sitio
n (k
m)
No CCCC (Q5)CC (min)CC (max)
Example X2 Results With and Without Climate ChangeAlternative X
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Del
ta X
2 Po
sitio
n (k
m)
No CCCC (Q5)CC (min)CC (max)
Example X2 Results With and Without Climate ChangeAlternative X change from No Action
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Cha
nge
in D
elta
X2
Posi
tion
from
No
Act
ion
(km
)
No CCCC (Q5)CC (min)CC (max)
No Action Alternative X
Alternative X Change from No Action
Next StepsNext Steps
Management review of climate change Management review of climate change methodology proposalmethodology proposalAgency legal review for NEPA, CEQA, and Agency legal review for NEPA, CEQA, and ESA complianceESA complianceReview schedule implicationsReview schedule implicationsCertain technical aspects beginning immediatelyCertain technical aspects beginning immediately
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