outlook on global markets & strategies (q4 2014)€¦ · consider your investment objectives,...
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Kelvin Wong, CFTe
Chief Technical Strategist, Asia
Outlook On Global Markets & Strategies (Q4 2014)
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Key Takeaways (Q4 2014)
U.S. stock market remains resilient even though we are in the 5th
year of the bullish cycle since Mar 2009.
More elements to justify a further potential upside movement first
rather than 10% to 20% correction.
- Sectors leaders (Technology & Health Care) remains strong.
- Laggard sector (Financials) has started to show strength.
- VIX is still below key resistance.
Potential upside targets(S&P500 = 2140/2170)
(Nasdaq100 = 4400/4430)
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Key Takeaways (Q4 2014) Despite the recent Russia/Ukraine conflict & its potential negative spill-
over effects over Europe, the German DAX has held above its key support
at 8900.
DAX FIRE and Pharmaceutical/Healthcare sectors continue to outperform.
Japanese stock market should outperform U.S. reinforces by USD/JPY
strength (Yen weakness).
Further potential strength ahead for USD against majors which implies
further potential downside for Gold.
Hong Kong/China stock markets remain above key supports & may see
potential upside movement in Oct 2014 due to Shanghai-Hong Kong
Connect.
Multi-year uptrend since 2011 remains intact for Singapore stock market,
watch key support zone at 3260/3130.
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Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500
9
Bullish breakout from 2 years of
consolidation since April 2012
Nasdaq 100 continues to
outperform against S&P 500!
Technology (XLK) / S&P 500 (SPY)
10
Technology sector continues to
outperform against S&P 500
Healthcare (XLV) / S&P 500 (SPY)
11
Healthcare sector continues to see
further strength
Financials (XLF) / S&P 500 (SPY)
12
Financials sector is playing
“catchup”
VIX (The “Fear & Greed Index”)
13
“High” complacency
but still below key
resistance on VIX
Russell 2000
14
• Small-cap U.S. domestic stocks
is not making new highs since
June 2014
• Symmetrical Triangle or Double Top?
DAX Supersector Pharmaceutical/Healthcare
17
Made a new 5-year high in Sep 2014
Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity Fund / S&P 500
19
Shows further outperformance
potential against the S&P 500
USD/JPY
21
Direct relationship since 1987
Impending bullish breakout
from 14 years of downtrend
U.S. Dollar Index (Futures)
28
Impending bullish breakout from
“Symmetrical Triangle” consolidation
since 1998
Gold (Futures)
29
Bearish breakdown from long-term
trendline support in place since 2001
1923 (Sep 2011)
Gold (Futures)
30
Evolving within impending bearish
“Descending Triangle” consolidation
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