orlando msa market overview · 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. $700. $750. $800. $850. $900. $950. 2009....

LAST UPDATED: September 2020

ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW

orlando.org

Orlando MSA Market Overview

• Labor Market

• Payroll Employment

• Commercial Real Estate

• Residential Real Estate

• Consumer Spending

• Visitor Industry

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Labor Force, Orlando MSASeasonally Adjusted

Employed Labor Force

orlando.org

Labor Market

August 2020 (12-Month Change) Labor Force: 1,345,372 (-127,999)

Employed: 1,197,499 (-19,534) Unemployed: 147,873 (+108,465)

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS Seasonally Adjusted

orlando.org

Labor Market

RECESSION

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Unemployment Rate, Orlando MSASeasonally Adjusted

Orlando MSA United States

August 2020United States: 8.4%

Orlando MSA: 11.0%

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSA12-Month Moving Average

RECESSION

orlando.org

Labor Market

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center

2020 YTD (through August) 200,985 (+180,707 year-over-year)

30

32

34

36

38

40

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Average Weekly Hours & Earnings, Orlando MSA12-Month Moving Average

12 MMA Weekly Earnings (left axis) 12 MMA Weekly Hours (right axis)

orlando.org

Labor Market

August 2020 (NSA, 12-Month Change)Hours: 35.1 (0.0%)

Earnings: $947.70 (5.4%)

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HundredsTotal, Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Orlando MSA

Not Seasonally Adjusted

orlando.org

Payroll Employment

RECESSION

Nov ’07 – Jan ’10103,700 jobs lost

August 2020 (12-Month Change)1,209,800 (-120,200)

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Feb ’20 - Present138,200 jobs lost

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Orlando MSAY/Y % Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Orlando MSA United States

orlando.org

Payroll Employment

August 2020 NSAUnited States: -6.8%Orlando MSA: -9.0%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

RECESSION

orlando.org

Payroll Employment – Top 10% Change in Payroll Employment, MSAs > 1 Million Jobs

August 2019 – August 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Top 10 Rank MSA % Change

1 Austin, TX -2.67%

2 Indianapolis, IN -2.84%

3 Phoenix, AZ -3.55%

4 Dallas, TX -3.69%

5 Kansas City, MO-KS -4.22%

6 Tampa, FL -4.27%

7 San Antonio, TX -4.34%

8 Atlanta, GA -4.43%

9 Denver, CO -4.60%

10 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN -5.51%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

orlando.org

Payroll Employment – Bottom 10% Change in Payroll Employment, MSAs > 1 Million Jobs

August 2019 – August 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Bottom 10 Rank MSA % Change

1 Las Vegas, NV -12.21%

2 New York, NY-NJ-PA -11.95%

3 San Francisco, CA -11.29%

4 Cleveland, OH -10.97%

5 Detroit, MI -10.69%

6 Boston, MA-NH -10.61%

7 Los Angeles, CA -10.19%

8 Orlando, FL -9.04%

9 San Diego, CA -9.01%

10 Sacramento, CA -8.60%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

56.050.9

40.0

12.0

-51.9 -51.0

12.219.3

31.937.9

42.9

58.8

45.5 42.2 41.849.5

-129.9

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

Net Job Gain, Orlando MSANot Seasonally Adjusted

orlando.org

Payroll Employment

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center

-0.4-1.6

-0.6-3.7 -2.0 -2.8

-6.5-10.2

-1.8 -3.4

-88.6

-0.8% -1.2% -1.6% -2.3% -2.5% -3.2%-4.3% -4.3%

-7.1% -7.6%

-32.1%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-100.0

-90.0

-80.0

-70.0

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

Mfg. Total Gov. WholesaleTrade

Education &Health

Finance Const. Retail Business Svcs. Information Other Svcs. Liesure &Hosp.

Job Gains by Industry, Orlando MSA12 Month Change Aug. 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Net Job Gain (left axis) Y/Y % Change (right axis)

TOTAL NET GAIN: -120.2 Thousand

orlando.org

Payroll EmploymentThousands

Miami Tampa

ORLANDO

Jacksonville

Lakeland

Space Coast

Tallahassee

Deltona

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-12% -11% -10% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

3-Month % Change

Year-Over-Year % Change

Employment Momentum by Florida MSA/MDAugust 2020, Seasonally Adjusted

orlando.org

Payroll Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bubble Size = Total Employment

IMPROVING

CONTRACTING SLIPPING

EXPANDING

orlando.org

Commercial Real Estate

Source: CoStar; only includes existing office properties larger than 5,000 sq. ft.

$15

$17

$19

$21

$23

$25

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

Office MarketOrlando MSA

Total Vacancy (left axis) Average Direct Asking Rate (FSG, right axis)

orlando.org

Commercial Real Estate

Source: CoStar; only includes existing industrial properties larger than 10,000 sq. ft.

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

Industrial MarketOrlando MSA

Total Vacancy (left axis) Average Direct Asking Rate (NNN, right axis)

orlando.org (p) = preliminarySource: Orlando Regional Realtor Association

Residential Real Estate

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

Home Sales vs. Median Sales PriceOrlando MSA

Sales (left axis) Median Sale Price (right axis)

2020 YTD (through August)Sales: 22,836 (-8.9%)

Median Sales Price: $260,275 (+8.8%)

11,805

5,2803,707 4,221 4,533

7,3229,222 9,806

12,03814,227 14,431

16,455 15,017

8,244

6,833

4,953

780 1,0331,972

4,684

6,341 6,309

8,436

9,027

4,634

12,427

9,957

5,207

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

Housing Permits, Orlando MSAUnits Authorized

Single-Family Multi-Family

orlando.org

Residential Real Estate

(p) = preliminarySource: U.S. Census Bureau, YTD Through July 2020

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan-2075.0

100.0

125.0

150.0

175.0

200.0

225.0

January 2000 = 100

Orlando MSA Retail Index

orlando.org

Consumer Spending

Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research

May 2020 (12-Month Change) 140.6 (-70.3 pp)

Taxable sales data for various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA's) are popularly used as

one indicator of regional economic activity. These data are derived from sales tax returns remitted to the state Department of Revenue

each month.

7.2 7.2 6.8 5.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 6.2 6.9 7.7 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.33.9

2.8 2.9 2.8 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1

1.0

13.3 13.8 14.3 16.014.5 15.3 16.7 17.8 19.0 20.5

22.7 23.6 25.5 26.7 27.9

7.2

12.7 13.5 13.9 12.011.7 12.2

13.013.7

14.415.0

15.415.9

16.216.9

17.2

5.7

2.9 3.0 2.52.3

1.71.7

1.71.9

2.22.4

2.72.9

3.13.3

3.4

1.4

8.0 8.4 7.67.0

6.56.7

6.56.9

7.38.0

8.59.2

9.811.1

11.9

4.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

$Billions

Taxable SalesOrlando MSA

Autos & Accessories Consumer Durables Tourism & Recreation Consumer Non-Durables Building Investment Business Investment

orlando.org

Consumer Spending

Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research

2019 (Y/Y Percent Change) Autos: $3.9b (-10.3%)

Durables: $1.0b (-19.1%)Tourism: $7.2b (-39.0%)

Non-Durables: $5.7b (-16.0%)Building Investment: $1.4b (+2.5%)Business Investment: $4.5b (-9.3%)

TOTAL: $23.7b (-22.3%)

orlando.org

Visitor Industry

Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority

2020 Passengers YTD through June, (% of 2019 Total)Domestic: 12.3 M (28.5%)

International: 1.4 M (19.9%)TOTAL: 13.8 M (27.3%)

31.9 32.5 34.2 33.0 30.7 31.6 31.9 31.5 30.8 31.4 33.736.3 37.7

41.1 43.5

12.4

2.2 2.12.3 2.7

3.0 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.35.1

5.65.8

6.67.2

1.4

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD

Millions

Total PassengersOrlando International Airport

Domestic International

3,681 3,758 3,496

2,717

3,619 3,651 4,037 3,803 3,803

2,205

152 367 875

1,174

601 732

670

481

517 538

597 573 531

303

3 2

1 12

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20

Thousands

Monthly Total PassengersOrlando International Airport

Domestic International

orlando.org

Visitor Industry - Monthly

Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority

July Passengers, (YOY Change)Domestic: 1,173,630 (-68.8%) International: 12,424 (-98.3%)

TOTAL: 1,186,054 (-73.6%)

For More Information Contact:

Phoebe FlemingDirector of ResearchORLANDO ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP

phoebe.fleming@Orlando.org