oregon economic and revenue forecast, december 2015
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic and Revenue Outlook:December 2015
December 2nd, 2015 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Mark McMullen
Josh Lehner
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic Performance and Outlook
2
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Traditional Advantage Regained
3
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Signs of a Deeper Labor Market Recovery In Oregon
4
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Full Employment Is In Sight
5
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Rural Areas Continuing to Improve
6
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Risk: Manufacturing
7
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Risk: Housing Affordability
8
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic Outlook
9
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Revenue Outlook
10
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2015-17 Forecast Evolution
11
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Same Pattern As Job Growth
12
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2015
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
Recent Personal Income Tax Collections% change over year ago, 3 month moving sum
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Corporate Taxes Remain Inflated
13
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
2000 2005 2010 2015
Net Corporate Taxes ($ Mil, 12 month sum)
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Tax Payments Outstrip Profits
14
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,0002
00
4:2
20
04
:4
20
05
:2
20
05
:4
20
06
:2
20
06
:4
20
07
:2
20
07
:4
20
08
:2
20
08
:4
20
09
:2
20
09
:4
20
10
:2
20
10
:4
20
11
:2
20
11
:4
20
12
:2
20
12
:4
20
13
:2
20
13
:4
20
14
:2
20
14
:4
20
15
:2
Corporate Tax Collections, (ths)
U.S. Corporate Profits ($ bil, right axis)
4 Quarter Moving Sums
GenTaxSystem
Goes Live
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Progressivity and Volatility Are Linked
15
2.2% 0.8%4.7% 5.2%
11.3%14.1%
19.0%21.6%
26.6%
36.5%
62.1%
69.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Tax Returns Subject to M66 Top Rate, % Share of Total, 2014
* M66 in 2014 or 2013 or BothMatched Returns through 10/13
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Lottery and Nationwide Gaming Remains Strong
16
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
1717
Forecast ChangesDifference from September Forecast, $ millions
56
-47.5
-6.8
94.4
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23
Personal
Corporate
Lottery
Other
Total
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS18
Reserves
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
99-01BN
01-03BN
03-05BN
05-07BN
07-09BN
09-11BN
11-13BN
13-15BN
15-17BN
17-19BN
Oregon Budgetary Reserves (billions)
Gen. Fund Ending Balance Educ. Stability Fund Rainy Day Fund
Forecast -->
Percent ofGeneral Fund -->
Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
1919
Biennial Revenue Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Personal Income Taxes Total General Fund
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
20
For More Information
Standard Contact:
155 Cottage Street NE
Salem, OR 97301
(503) 378-3405
oea.info@state.or.us
www.oregon.gov/das/oea
Social Media:
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
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