optimizing user acquisition for a portfolio - eric seufert - casual connect amsterdam

Optimizing User Acquisition for an App Portfolio

Eric Benjamin SeufertCasual Connect Amsterdam

February 2016

Who am I?

Mobile Dev Memo

Freemium Economics

VP of User Acquisition & Network Engagement

Why build an App Portfolio?

Why build an App Portfolio?• People are spending more time on mobile but

are downloading fewer apps;

Why build an App Portfolio?• People are spending more time on mobile but

are downloading fewer apps;• As a result, it’s getting more expensive to

advertise (new) apps to (new) people;

Why build an App Portfolio?• People are spending more time on mobile but are

downloading fewer apps;• As a result, it’s getting more expensive to advertise

(new) apps to (new) people;• This trend is not expected to abate. And because mobile

gaming is hit-driven, having a game for players now to cross-promote into a hit later is a form of hedging;

Why build an App Portfolio?• Given an increasingly competitive market for

advertising impressions, it makes sense to draw heavily on cross promotion for new launches:

Why build an App Portfolio?• Given an increasingly competitive market for

advertising impressions, it makes sense to draw heavily on cross promotion for new launches:– Hedging benefit: mix of spot price (current CPMs) and forward prices (cross

promoted users acquired earlier);

Why build an App Portfolio?• Given an increasingly competitive market for

advertising impressions, it makes sense to draw heavily on cross promotion for new launches:– Hedging benefit: mix of spot price (current CPMs) and forward prices (cross

promoted users acquired earlier);– Building a multi-game user lifecycle increases overall “network” LTV (vs. single-

game LTV);

Why build an App Portfolio?• Given an increasingly competitive market for

advertising impressions, it makes sense to draw heavily on cross promotion for new launches:– Hedging benefit: mix of spot price (current CPMs) and forward prices (cross

promoted users acquired earlier);– Building a multi-game user lifecycle increases overall “network” LTV (vs. single-

game LTV);– Adverse selection: As biggest, richest companies acquire large marketshare,

they become less willing to sell ads (at least to their “good” players).

Why build an App Portfolio?• Smooth revenues out across game lifecycles:

Why build an App Portfolio?• Smooth revenues out across game lifecycles:

Source: Mobile Dev Memo (Applying Portfolio Theory to Mobile Games, http://mobiledevmemo.com/applying-portfolio-theory-mobile-games/)

Why build an App Portfolio?• Smooth revenues out across game lifecycles:

Source: Mobile Dev Memo (Applying Portfolio Theory to Mobile Games, http://mobiledevmemo.com/applying-portfolio-theory-mobile-games/)

Also, portfolio theory.• Diversifying revenue base with different game

genres / themes can protect against sentiment shifts in the market

Also, portfolio theory.• Diversifying revenue base with different game

genres / themes can protect against sentiment shifts in the market– For more, see Applying Portfolio Theory to Mobile Gameshttp://mobiledevmemo.com/applying-portfolio-theory-mobile-games/

How to do it?

How to do it?1) Release more than one game;

How to do it?1) Release more than one game;2) Be strategic about cross promotion.

Be strategic about cross promotion2 Examples from Rovio’s UANE team:

Be strategic about cross promotion2 Examples from Rovio’s UANE team:

1) Optimized, programmatic ad serving;

Be strategic about cross promotion2 Examples from Rovio’s UANE team:

1) Optimized, programmatic ad serving;2) Rich content ad portal.

Optimized, programmatic ad serving

Optimized, programmatic ad serving

Showing the right ad:

Optimized, programmatic ad serving

Showing the right ad:Built a Bayesian optimizer that serves ads based on performance, aggregated around:

Optimized, programmatic ad serving

Showing the right ad:Built a Bayesian optimizer that serves ads based on performance, aggregated around: - Origin game;- Country of player;- Player device type;- Player profile (proprietary behavioral data).

Optimized, programmatic ad serving

Algorithm based on article published 2 years ago: http://mobiledevmemo.com/bayesian-bandits-testing-mobile-apps/

Game (ad impression)

Ad Server

Player Data

What’s the best ad to serve this player based on what we know about them?

Ad

Did the player click on the ad?Yes or No

Update performance data for this player profile based on click / no click

Optimized, programmatic ad serving

Results:

Optimized, programmatic ad serving

Results:For some games, outbound installs more than doubled;

Optimized, programmatic ad serving

Results:For some games, outbound installs more than doubled;Significantly reduced manual effort required to traffic ads (since the algorithm does the ad selection).

Rich content ad portal

Rich content ad portalShowing better ads:

Rich content ad portalShowing better ads:Give players the ability to opt into ads, make ad placements feel like native content, allow for rich content ad types.

Rich content ad portal

Rich content ad portalResults:

Rich content ad portalResults:Huge increase in total cross promo impressionsHuge increase in cross promo downloadsHuge increase in App Store conversion rateModerate decrease in average CTR

Thanks!MobileDevMemo.com@eric_seufert