open sesame: arab mobile markets michael minges minges@itu.int the views expressed are those of the...

Open Sesame: Arab Mobile Markets

Michael Minges

minges@itu.int

The views expressed are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Members

Topics

The mobile revolutionSome Arab States behindEmerging Arab mobile starsIssues to consider

A Mobile RevolutionA Mobile Revolution

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.

More than 300 million users250’000 new users added each dayUsers double every 20 monthsCompetitive markets

Worldwide mobile cellular subscribers (millions)

553423161191

144

215

318

28%

8%5%4%

12%

3%2%

16%

21%

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Mobile as % of total

telephone subscribers

A mobile futureA mobile future

Source: 1990-1998 data from ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database. 1999-2010 ITU projections.

Mobile has overtaken fixed-lines in Cambodia & Finland

Mobile subscribers to overtake fixed-line worldwide before 2010

Mobile revenue to overtake fixed-line after 2004

Telephone subscribers,

millions, 1990-2010

0

500

1'000

1'500

2'000

1990 2000 2010

Fixed

Mobile

“Mobile will substitute for fixed telephony as the primary form for personal communications”—Vodafone

Under performing

Qatar

Bahrain

Saudi ArabiaOman

Lebanon

JordanMoroccoEgyptTunisiaAlgeria

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

$2'000 $4'000 $6'000 $8'000 $10'000 $12'000GDP per capita, US$, 1997

Mobile cellular subscribersper 100 people, 1997

These countries are doing better

than expected

These countries are doing worse than expected

One is no fun

Arab States have least competitive cellular markets

Limited supply

Œ

2 01

11

1

11

1

1

1

0

1

0

11

12

0

1

3

UgandaUganda

Number of mobile operatorsX

NOTE: This map is for illustrative purposes only!!!

Sub-Saharan Mobile Success Story

Enters market 10/98

Startsup

5/95

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 Sep-99

Forecast

UgandaMobile subscribers 000s Uganda: Least

Developed Country category

Introduces competition October 1998

By September 1999, more mobile than fixed subscribers

Both mobile operators backed by strategic foreign investors

More mob-ile

than fixed

First Arab country to introduce mobile competition

2 Build-Operate-Transfer (BOTs) start May ‘95:

Libancell

• Sonera (Finland) 14%

Cellis

• France Telecom 67%

Lebanon: The Arab mobile pioneer

0

5

10

15

20

25

1994 1996 1998 2000

Lebanon: Telephone density

Fore-cast

Mobile

Fixed

Lebanon: Universal coverage, high substitution

Egypt opens up

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

1994 1995 1996 juin-97

déc-97

juin-98

déc-98

août-99

déc-99

déc-00

déc-01

Starts11/96

Starts11/98

ForecastEgypt: Mobile cellular subscribers (000s)

Morocco sets a record

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 93 96 99 02 05 08

Mobile cellular subscribersper 100 inhabitants

Awards 2nd license in July 1999

Price of license fee per population highest ever for developing country

New operator expects to capture half of market by 2003

Source: Telefonica (Spain)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000

UAEBahrainLebanonQatarKuwaitOmanSaudi ArabiaJordanEgyptMoroccoTunisiaLibyaAlgeriaDjiboutiSudan

Arab Mobile Stages

Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Technology

Almost all Arab States use GSM:

14 networks 3.1 million subscribers

(June ‘99)

3rd generation mobile (IMT-2000):

Global roaming Multimedia Multimode Japan (2001), European

Union by 1/1/2002

D-AMPS6%

PDC11%

CDMA7%

PHS

2%

GSM44%

Analogue30%Digital 70%

Worldwide cellular subscribers by technology, 1998

Coverage

Mobile cellular coverage is an important indicator of Universal Access

~ 100% population coverage + pre-paid card = Universal Access

Tariffs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Alg

eri

a

Ye

me

n

UA

E

Qa

tar

Kuw

ait

Asi

a

Tun

isia

Le

bano

n

Ara

b S

tate

s

WO

RL

D

Eur

ope

Sa

udi A

rabi

a

Egy

pt

Jord

an

Mo

rocc

o

Om

an

Mobile Tariffs, 1999, 100 minutes per month, US$

Publication launch: 10 October 1999 (TELECOM ‘99)

Available on paper and online (PDF format)

Website:

http://www.itu.int/ti/publications/wtdr_99/wtdr99.htm

For more information…

WORLD TELECOMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT REPORT 1999

Also see: “The world in your pocket”. Telecommunication Survey. October 9 1999.

www.economist.com