one un training bangkok 27 october 2009
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“One UN” Training
Green Jobs for Green Growth in Asia and the Pacific
Bangkok, 27 to 30 October 2009
Carina Bachofen and Edward Cameron
cbachofen@worldbank.org / ecameron@worldbank.org
๏ Social justice as an over-arching theme
๏ Governance and social accountability in climate action
๏ Equity, rights and livelihood security in climate change mitigation and adaptation
๏ Learning Module and Micro-documentary film contest
๏ Rights, forests and climate change
๏ Local institutions, area-based development and climate change
๏ Emerging work on Indigenous Peoples, gender, conflict and the urban poor
The Social Dimensions of Climate (SDCC) at the World Bank
Our Goal:
Socially inclusive, climate-resilient policies & operations in client countries
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
1. Climate change impacts growth in Asia and the Pacific
2. Climate change policy could have long term implications for growth in Asia and the Pacific
3. Responding to the threats and opportunities of climate change alters the context for our work and our institutions
Our starting point
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
๏ The changing nature of climate change
๏ A climate of crises
๏ “We do not intend to waste these crises”
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Our starting point
Our Goals:
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
1. Enhance understanding of vulnerability and resilience
2. Build the capacity of participants to work with climate change
3. Propose principles of equity and governance that can improve the practice of climate change interventions
4. Outline a number of methods and tools that can be used as operational entry points
1. What are the social dimensions of climate change?
2. First principles: understanding vulnerability and resilience
3. Pro-poor climate policy: from vulnerability to resilience through sustainable development
4. Methodologies and toolkits: operationalizing the social dimensions of climate change
Four Part Training
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Part 1What are the social dimensions of climate change? Why is this perspective important for Asia and the Pacific?
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Reconciling socio-ecological systems
The complex social responses resulting from climate change
The implications of climate change architecture, policy and interventions
Building new communities of practice
Breaking down disciplinary path dependency
Altering process, policies, and interventions
Shaping substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
What are the social dimensions of climate change?
IPCC projected natural impacts
complex social responses
equity
human rights and other implications
Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, threats to unique systems and biodiversity, increase in flooding and storm surges
Loss of livelihoods; health/fatalities; food/water insecurity; migration; conflict; damage to infrastructure; decline in natural systems services; distribution of impacts
Adequate standard of living; minimum means of subsistence; health; food; water; self-determination; property; culture; life; education; gender, indigenous and children
Process and substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations
Improved outcomes, adaptive capacity and resilience
Enhanced capital and resources
Improved governance
Change analysis and diagnosis
Critical in shaping global policy architecture and responses; instruments and application at the local level; addresses inequalities; reduces vulnerabilities; builds resilience
Technological; knowledge; political; various types of assets (social, physical, natural, financial, human, cultural capital)
Key to authoritative advocacy for vulnerable populations; providing access to processes; influencing the nature of processes; vital for building constituencies and securing agreement
Implementation of governance principles across governance scales leads to enhanced capital and resources
first principles: understanding vulnerability and resilience Part 2
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Vulnerability according to the IPCC:Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation in which a system is exposed, it's sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007a, p21)
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is subjected, such as:
๏ Risks to unique and threatened systems (coral)
๏ Extreme weather events (storm surges and sea swells)
๏ Reduced agricultural productivity
๏ Increased water insecurity
๏ Increased health risk
๏ Large-scale singularities
๏ Aggregate impacts (impacts worsen over time)
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
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Exposure in ASIA
“The human drama of climate change will largely be played out in Asia, where 60% of the world’s population lives - over half near the coast - making them directly vulnerable to sea level rise” (New Economics Foundation 2007).
๏ A 1m rise in sea level would inundate coastal cities and communities throughout Asia. In 2007 almost 20 million people were displaced as devastating floods hit northern India, Bangladesh and Nepal, affecting food, clean drinking water and medical supplies.
๏ Freshwater availability, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease. This, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s (IPCC 2007, p13).
๏ Recent studies suggest that South Asia could experience losses of up to 10 percent of many of its local staples including rice by 2030. Fears over the supply and cost of rice led to food riots and export bans in a number of South Asian countries in 2007 and 2008.
Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All Low lying All Low lying Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan
Low income High incomeMiddle income
Source: World Bank 2008
Six Climate Threats: Top Twelve Countries Most at Risk
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
๏ Access to information, decision making and justice
๏ Dependence on the environment for livelihoods, food, fuel, shelter and medicine
๏ Geographical context
๏ Financial / socio-economic status
๏ Governance / political economy issues
๏ Gender, age, abilities
๏ Indigenous Peoples
๏ Cultural norms
Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different experiences of climate change impacts, such as:
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Adaptive Capacity - The capacity to mobilize resources to build resilience
๏ Various types of assets (social, physical, natural, financial, human, cultural capital)
๏ Technological
๏ Knowledge
๏ Governance
Adaptation - “Refers to changes in processes, practices, or structures to moderate or offset potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in climate. It involves adjustments to reduce the vulnerability of communities, regions, or activities to climatic change and variability” (IPCC 2001).
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Case Study 1: The Maldives
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Case Study 2: Mongolia
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Case Study 3: Bangladesh
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Country Case Studies:Each participant in the group takes ten minutes to read one case study from The Maldives, Mongolia and Bangladesh.
When you have finished reading the case studies, present the case to your colleagues, explaining why your chosen country is vulnerable.
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
ResilienceResilience occurs where adaptive capacity is strong, inequalities are addressed, and exposure minimized. It reflects the ability to deal with change and continue to develop.
Just as vulnerable communities are threatened with collapse from climate impacts, a resilient community can anticipate and plan for a sustainable future.
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
pro-poor climate policy: from vulnerability to resilience through sustainable development Part 3
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy:
EQUITY
RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY
CO-BENEFITS NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS
INEQUITY
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Climate policy building blocks
๏ Mitigation
๏ Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)
๏ Adaptation
๏ Technology
๏ Finance
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Mitigation
๏Sources
๏Sinks / Reservoirs
๏Sequestration
๏Substitutes
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Renewable Energy: Co-benefits
๏GHG Reductions
๏Economic returns for those who innovate
๏Employment and local development
๏ Increased security of supply
๏Reduced emissions of other pollutants and health benefits
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Biofuels: Negative Social Impacts
๏Questionable GHG reductions potential
๏Deforestation
๏Land acquisition and displacement
๏ Impact on food (production, access, prices)
๏Political instability, corruption and violence
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ISSUES / ETHICSReducing Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation
REDD Agenda
๏ Deforestation is responsible for at least 25%-30% of anthropogenic climate change each year
๏ Forests help to slow climate change by acting as a sink / reservoir for GHG emissions
๏ Assign a price for carbon to cover environmental services and create incentives for forest conservation and management
๏ Effective forest governance is key to success but remains elusive
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Adaptation
๏Planned versus autonomous adaptation
๏First Generation
๏Second Generation
๏Third Generation (?)
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What Adaptation Strategy?Case 1: Engineering - protecting the land or the person?
๏ Protects vital infrastructure
๏ Protects vital utilities
๏ Coastal zone management
๏ Seawalls, flood defences, etc..
๏ Deals with exposure but what about sensitivity?
๏ May not target the most vulnerable
๏ May not address key system impacts (ecological and social)
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Technology
๏Research and innovation
๏ Investment and political will
๏Development and deployment
๏Access and supporting structures
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Finance
๏How much is required?
๏New and additional?
๏How to generate funding?
๏How to disburse / target funding?
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Equitable, efficient and effective?
Baseline ODA (up to 0.7% of GNP)GDP Contribution (0.5% - 1% by developed countries)Carbon TaxesGeneral taxes and specific fundsAviation / Shipping taxGHG LevyTax on Financial Transactions (Tobin Tax)Emissions Cap and TradeAuctioning of Emissions RightsCDM and Carbon Offset Markets
Potential Sources of Climate Finance:
Current estimates put the cost of dealing with climate change at between $4bn and $109bn per year(low end from Stern 2006 / high end from UNDP 2007)
Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
EquityVulnerable and marginalized communities are typically least responsible for the cause and least able to deal with the consequences of climate change.
“These groups, by lacking a voice and influence in climate change policy making, are unlikely to account for their particular experience. This is likely to exacerbate their position of marginalization or vulnerability further” (Pollack, 2008, p17).
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
% GHG Emissions in 2000
Source: Data taken from the Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT) developed by the World Resources Institute (WRI). Aggregates from IEA and others.
Only 17 countries account for 1% or more of global greenhouse gas emissions
Together, these 17 countries are responsible for more than 85% of global emissions
And yet few of these are amongst those most vulnerable to climate change
Unequal responsibilities
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Climate related disasters
Some 262 million people were affected by climate disasters annually from
2000 to 2004.
Developing WorldOECD
Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2007 / 2008
In the OECD, one person in every fifteen hundred was affected by
climate disaster (1:1500)
In the developing world the number was one in nineteen (1:19)
A risk differential of 79!
Unequal consequences
% of people affected by climate disasters 2000 - 2004
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
EquityThe practical application of equity may help to resolve a number of long-standing climate change issues including:
๏ Power and participation
๏ Determining entitlements and access:
๏ Allocating and meeting responsibilities
๏ Mobilizing and building capacities
๏ Prioritizing needs
๏ Striking a balance across space and time
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Global: UNFCC, Kyoto, Bali Roadmap
Regional: EU and other initiatives
Local / Sub-national:Initiatives at provincial, community and household level
National:Policies at the state level
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Rationalize energy, water and agricultural price, tax incentives, fiscal and expenditure policies
Efficiency standards; codes, zoning, climate screening / proofing of investments
Capacity of public, private and financial sector institutions to assess and act on climate risks and new business opportunities
Improve investment climate; deepen financial and capital markets; new markets (cap & trade, CDM, etc...)
Education, raising awareness and promoting change in consumer behavior and preferences, public diplomacy
Incentives
Regulations
Institutions
Markets
Public Outreach
Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Thematic Case Studies:Each participant in the group takes ten minutes to read one case study on Equity and Governance.
How do the principles of equity and governance influence your work? What can we do as a UN family to mainstream these principles in climate change interventions?
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Methods and tools: operationalizing the social dimensions of climate change.Part 4
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Analytical Frameworks
A range of analytical frameworks can enhance our understanding of vulnerability. Most emphasize the role of assets as a buffer against vulnerability and the mediating role of institutions.
They include:
๏ Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)๏ Social Risk Management Framework (SRM)๏ Territorial Development (TD) and Local Institutions
What methodologies enhance our understanding of vulnerability and shape our responses to it?
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46
Social Financial
Hum
anNatural
ASSETS Inclusive Governance
Scales
Livelihood protection
and poverty
reduction
•Exposure to Risk
•Sensitivity to Risk
•Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Processes
Stakeholders
Institutions
Frameworks 101 ๏ Vulnerability context influences availability of assets๏ Access to assets determines level of resilience and adaptive
capacity๏ Institutions determine access to and returns from assets
Physicalthe social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)
๏ Vulnerability Context
๏ Livelihood Assets
๏ Transforming Structures and Processes
๏ Livelihood Strategies
๏ Livelihood Outcomes
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Social Risk Management Framework (SRM)
๏ Aims to increase capacity of society to manage climate risks and increase opportunities for sustainable development
๏ Framework applied to identify no-regrets options
๏ Policy menu should balance ex-ante risk prevention, exposure reduction and support for ex-post coping
๏ Interventions can take place at different stages, levels of governance and levels of formality
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Territorial Development
๏ Territorial vision: socio-political area with shared identity
๏ Focus on micro- and meso-linkages across sectors and spatial dimensions of different assets and endowments
๏ Considers endogenous territorial assets to identify a territory’s comparative advantages and relevant development strategy
๏ Holistic - integrates sectoral policies at territorial scale, promotes economic and institutional transformation, and strengthened linkages within a territory
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Rethinking existing instruments - developing new tools
With climate change altering the context for development, the need for new and innovative methodologies and tools is becoming increasingly apparent.
The World Bank is adapting existing instruments, developing new toolkits, and monitoring emerging approaches for operationalizing the social dimensions of climate change.
These include:
๏ Participatory Scenario Development (PSD)๏ Preventative Resettlement Toolkit๏ Human Rights Based Approach๏ Gender-Based Toolkit
Which toolkits enhance our understanding of vulnerability and shape our responses to it?
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Thematic Case Studies:Each participant in the group takes ten minutes to read one the case study on Methodologies.
Which of these methodologies would be most useful in your work? Are there alternatives?
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The Social Dimensions of Climate ChangeConcluding thoughts and further resources
Climate change impacts are already altering the context for development. Policy responses across scales of governance further alter the context for development. Are we ready for those changes?
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MOVING FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE (1)
๏ Change the diagnosis
๏ Mobilize new constituencies and communities of practice
๏ Enhance understanding of vulnerability
๏ Recognize the importance of building equity into policy
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MOVING FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE (2)
๏ Increase resilience and co-benefits with sustainable development through climate interventions
๏ Improve governance and better policy will follow
๏ A variety of new and existing tools can aid this process
๏ Learn the lessons from case studies drawn from different experiences across the globe
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
equitythe social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Further information and learning resourcesEND
equity
Strategic Framework For Development and Climate Change and Development
๏ Support to climate actions in country-led development processes;
๏ Mobilization of concessional and innovative finance; ๏ The development of innovative market mechanisms to
leverage private sector resources; ๏ Acceleration of the development and deployment of new
technologies; ๏ Enhanced policy research, knowledge, and capacity
building.
Climate Change at the World Bank
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equity
Climate Change at the World Bank (2/3)
The new Climate Investments Funds (CIF), with donor pledges of more than US$ 6 billion includes:
๏ A Clean Technology Fund to facilitate demonstration, deployment, and transfer of low-carbon technologies
๏ A Strategic Climate Fund, which focuses on vulnerable nations, tries to maximize co-benefits of sustainable development, and features a pilot program for enhancing climate resilience.
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Social Development at the World Bank
The Social Development Department aims to empower poor and marginalized women and men through a process of transforming institutions for greater inclusion, cohesion and accountability.
Thematic focus includes:
๏ Social Policy Analysis๏ Local Governance and Community Driven Development๏ Conflict, Crime and Violence๏ Indigenous Peoples and Involuntary Resettlement๏ The Social Dimensions of Climate Change
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
visit our website: www.worldbank.org/sdcc
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Further Reading: SDCC Workshop Summary Report (World Bank, 2009)
“I am confident that the innovative global agenda that this workshop has launched will lead to a holistic analysis of climate change impacts on human and social systems, increase our understanding of vulnerability, and strengthen our capacity to build social justice, accountability and equity into climate policy”.
Katherine Sierra Vice President, Sustainable Development NetworkThe World Bank
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
World Bank Group Strategic Framework For Development and Climate Change (SFDCC), 2008
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Report (HDR), 2007
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), 2005
The Economics of Climate Change (Stern Review), 2006
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Adger, N (2006) VulnerabilityThe challenges for vulnerability research are to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience.
Burton, I et al (2002) From Impacts Assessment to Adaptation Priorities: the Shaping of Adaptation PolicyThe emphasis shifts from the question of gross and net impacts to questions of vulnerability, and how and where to deploy adaptation responses.
Brooks, N (2003) Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual frameworkAdaptation by a system may be inhibited by process originating outside the system; it is therefore important to consider “external” obstacles to adaptation, and links across scales, when assessing adaptive capacity.
McGray, H et al (2007) Weathering the Storm: Options for framing adaptation and developmentAny effective development planning process will need to take climate change into account—and, more particularly, will need to facilitate adaptation to the effects of climate change.
O’Brien, K et al (2004) What’s in a word? Conflicting interpretations of vulnerability in climate change researchDifferent interpretations of vulnerability have major implications for how the issue of climate change is addressed by policy makers, leads to different diagnoses of the climate change problem, and also to different kinds of cures.
Turner, B et al (2003) A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability scienceChanges taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where?
the social dimensions of climate change learning modulegreen jobs for green growth in Asia and the Pacific
Thank you for your attention!
www.worldbank.org/sdcc
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