oecds forthcoming economic globalisation publication 2008: – the trade chapter -
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECDs forthcoming OECDs forthcoming Economic Globalisation Economic Globalisation Publication 2008: Publication 2008: – The trade chapter - – The trade chapter -
EGI 2008 Contribution from STD’s Globalisation Unit, Trade
and Globalisation Section, SES/TAGS
Andreas Lindner, Head TAGS
AgendaAgendaItem 10bItem 10bAgendaAgendaItem 10bItem 10b
STD/SES/TAGS; 1STD/SES/TAGS; 1stst WPTGS Meeting 22.-24.09.2008, Paris WPTGS Meeting 22.-24.09.2008, Paris
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
The contextThe context
• As for EGI 2005, several OECD Directorates contribute to EGI 2008
• STI has overall coordination
• Most important: the selection of indicators
• All Directorates use the same template to standardise the lay-out of this publication as horizontal OECD product
• EGI 2008 to be published before end 2008
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
The team:The team:
STD:• Andreas Lindner (STD coordinator)• Eun-Pyo Hong• Florian Eberth• Bettina Wistrom• Patrizio SicariSTI:• Thomas Hatzichronoglou (EGI coordinator)• Agnès Cimper (Intra-Industry trade)
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Trade is one chapter of Trade is one chapter of EGI 2008EGI 2008
Besides the other chapters on FDI, Multinationals, FATS etc.,
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
A standard approach and presentationA standard approach and presentation
• One page of analysis• .. With standadr lay-out containing sources used and links to
Websites in a shaded box at the bottom• An explanatory box for non-specialists, explaining
– What the indicator measures– The formular– Factors to be taken into account when interpreting results– General strenghts and limitations of the indicator shown
• A standardized graphical presentation – Covering OECD countries plus Accession countries and
Enhanced Engagement countries (30+5+5= up to 40 countries) wherever possible
– Easy to understand and interpret
5
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
The list of trade indicators (red box)The list of trade indicators (red box)
• Trade as % of GDP• Trade Balance as % of GDP• World Export Market Shares• World Exp. Market Sh. by Type of Goods• Geographical Distribution of Export Shares in OECD,
Accession c. and Enhanced Engagement countries • Geographical Distribution of Export Shares in Services• Import Penetration of G & S• Merchandise Trade with China and Hong Kong,China• Merchandise Trade with the Rset of World• Intra-Industry Trade• High-Tech Merchandise Trade• Sensitivity of Trade flows to Price and Income Changes
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
……They do tell a story…They do tell a story…
• Globalisation affected countries very differently
• Winners and loosers• But "grouping patterns" emerge• Heterogeneity of trends and impact on
countries• No “one fits all” strategy, rather tailored
analysis and approaches• Requiring cross-cutting approach for statistics
and indicators development
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECD Accession Countries
OECD Enhanced
Engagement Countries
OECD Countries
1. Trade (Goods and Services) as % of GDP1. Trade (Goods and Services) as % of GDP
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Central & East European countries become increasingly integrated into world economy
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
……and average growth 2000 - 2006and average growth 2000 - 2006
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
2. OECD Trade Balances as % of GDP2. OECD Trade Balances as % of GDP
10
- 20 - 15 - 10 - 5 0 5 10 15 20 25%
2006 2000
30
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
3. World Export Market Shares (G&S) – average 3. World Export Market Shares (G&S) – average annual growth 2000-2006annual growth 2000-2006
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-10 -5 0 5 10 15
Slovak RepublicCzech Republic
PolandHungary
TurkeyLuxembourg
GermanyAustria
NorwayDenmark
SpainGreeceIcelandIreland
KoreaNetherlands
PortugalAustralia
FinlandBelgiumSweden
SwitzerlandItaly
New ZealandUnited Kingdom
FranceMexicoCanada
JapanUnited States
Russian FederationEstonia
ChileSlovenia
IsraelChinaIndia
BrazilSouth Africa
Indonesia
%
OECD Accession Countries
OECD EEP Countries
OECD Countries
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
5. Geographical Distribution of Export Shares5. Geographical Distribution of Export SharesFigure I.5.a.1 Export shares of Goods into EU25, 2006 versus 2000
Figure I.5.a.3 Export shares of Goods into Japan, 2006 versus 2000
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02468
101214161820
%2006 2000
OECD CountriesOECDAccessionCountries
OECDEnhancedEngagement Countries
0
1
2 %
Magnified
2006 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
%2006 2000
OECD CountriesOECDAccessionCountries
OECDEnhancedEngagement Countries
0
1%
Magnified
2006 2000
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Geographical Distribution of Export Shares Geographical Distribution of Export Shares in Services 2005 versus 2000in Services 2005 versus 2000
EU 25 JapanEU 25 Japan
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051015202530
AustraliaKoreaCzech RepublicHungaryCanadaPortugalDenmarkSwedenJapanNetherlandsItalySpainGermanyUnited KingdomUnited States
%
2005 2000
0102030405060
Slovak RepublicPortugalCzech RepublicGreeceFinlandAustriaSpainNorwayHungarySwedenIrelandItalyCanadaDenmarkNetherlandsAustraliaFranceGermanyKoreaUnited KingdomUnited States
%
2005 2000
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
6.1 Import Penetration of Goods and 6.1 Import Penetration of Goods and Services 2006 versus 2000Services 2006 versus 2000
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OECD Countries OECD Accession Countries
OECD Enhanced Engage-
ment Countries
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
7. OECD Merchandise Trade with China7. OECD Merchandise Trade with China
OECD trade with China and Hong Kong (China) – billion US$
Japanese trade with china and Hong Kong (China) – billion US$
15
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Balance
Imports
Exports
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Balance
Imports
Exports
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
8. OECD Merchandise Trade8. OECD Merchandise Trade with the Rest of the World with the Rest of the World
OECD trade with Row. – Billion US $
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Balance
Imports
Exports
US trade with Row. – Billion US $
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Balance
Imports
Exports
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
9.2 Index of Intra-Industry Trade in 9.2 Index of Intra-Industry Trade in ManufacturesManufactures
Average annual change 2001-2006Average annual change 2001-2006
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-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0% 2.3
2.8 3.5
-5.9 -3.2 -3.2 -2.3
-2.3
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
10 Role of High-Tech Merchandise Trade10 Role of High-Tech Merchandise Trade% Shares in Total Trade 2000 and 2006% Shares in Total Trade 2000 and 2006
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United Kingdom
Switzerland
USA
Korea
Finland
Hungary
France
Ireland
Japan
Denmark
OECD
Germany
Netherlands
EU25
Mexico
Sweden
Iceland
Austria
Luxembourg
Canada
Czech Republic
Italy
Belgium
Greece
New Zealand
Spain
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Norway
Australia
Poland
Turkey
Slovenia
Israel
Estonia
Accession Countries
Chile
Russian Federation
China and Hong Kong SAR
EEP countries
Brazil
India
Indonesia
South Africa
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
2006 2000
OECD Countries
OECD Accession Countries
OECDEnhanced
EngagementCountries
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
11. Sensitivity of Trade Flows to Price and 11. Sensitivity of Trade Flows to Price and Income ChangesIncome Changes
The global picture Focus on the 1st Quadrant
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AUS
FIN
ISL
IRL
LUXNOR
PRT
ESP
CHE
TUR
KOR
MEX
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
I II
IIIIV
AUT
BEL
CAN
DEUDNK
FRA
GRE
ITA
JPN
NLD
NZL
SWEUK
US
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Focus: First Quadrant
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Thank you!Thank you!
Andreas.lindner@oecd.org
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