oahu housing and economic policy trends · longer-run trends in real oahu mean single-family home...
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Copyright 2018
Paul H. Brewbaker, Ph.D., CBE
Oahu housing and economic policy trends
prepared for the
Honolulu Board of Realtors
Windward Regional Groupby Paul H. Brewbaker, Ph.D., CBE
TZ Economics, Kailua, Hawaii
July 26, 2018
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Oahu housing market trends: still good news; still going?
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Oahu 2010s existing home sales growth more modulated than during
late-1990s/early-2000s overexuberance; even slow things must pass
Monthly sales volumes, s.a. (log scale)
800
600
500
400
300
200
100
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Lehman
Brothers
Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors Monthly Housing Statistics (various); monthly data through June 2018, seasonal adjustment by TZ Economics
U.S. recessions shaded
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Slight pile-up in seasonally-adjusted Oahu months of inventory
remaining in 2018 not inconsistent with housing market slowdown
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Months of inventory remaining, s.a.
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
U.S. recession shaded2.802.51
2.27
2.46
Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors Monthly Housing Statistics (various); monthly data through June 2018, seasonal adjustment by TZ Economics
4
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734
Quarterly units, s.a. (log scale)
2,000
1,000
700
500
300
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Sources: Honolulu City & County Department of Planning and Permitting, Hawaii DBEDT (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/qser/selected-county-tables), author’s records; seasonal adjustment and extraction of
stepwise trend components by TZE
U.S. recessions shaded
Quarterly Oahu new housing units authorized by building permit:
2010s recovery positioned to extend if not cut off by policy changes
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Oahu conventional mortgage debt service-to-income ratio, a measure
of housing affordability, remains within the affordable zone in 2010s
Sources: Bank of Hawaii, Honolulu Board of Realtors, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US); TZE calculations on annual
data for single-family homes (only) 1977-2017, conventional mortgage lending assumptions
*Fannie Mae (May 30, 2017) Selling Guide (https://www.fanniemae.com/content/guide/selling/b3/6/02.html)†FHFA (https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Limiting-Fannie-Mae-and-Freddie-MacLoan-Purchases-to-Qualified-Mortgages.aspx)
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mortgage payment at median prices as percent of median income
34.8%
Debt-to-
income
thresholds
45%*
43%†
[3.5]−1Affordable
Not Affordable
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-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Thousand
persons
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Housing market balance because residents are leaving? 2010s Oahu net
domestic out-migration rose from from −8k (2011) to −22k (2017)
18.7 19.6 19.0 19.5 18.9
−8.2 −10.0
−10.8
−15.2 −15.1
−19.8−21.9
20.7 17.8
Int. migr.
Births
Deaths
Domestic
migration
Sources: Hawaii DBEDT (http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/census/popestimate/2017-county-population-hawaii/CO_EST2017_alldata.xlsx)
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Hawaii housing valuation: collateral dynamics
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Thousand dollars, s.a., log scale
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
For the last 7 years, monthly existing home price appreciation rates
on Oahu have remained remarkably steady, with narrow bandwidth
Single-family
Condominium
$430.1k
$761.1k
Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors Monthly Housing Statistics (various); monthly data through June 2018, seasonal adjustment, regression-based projections by TZ Economics
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Thousand dollars, s.a., log scale
800
700
600
500
400
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
A closer look at monthly existing home prices on Oahu since mid-
2011 suggests that single-family appreciation rates are decelerating
5.3%
2.4%
Single-family
Condominium
$434.4k
±2 standard error bandwidth
Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors Monthly Housing Statistics (various); monthly data through June 2018, seasonal adjustment, regression-based projections by TZ Economics
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Index, 2000 = 100 (log scale)
200
160
120
80
60
40
201975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Broader FHFA All-Transactions Indexes of housing valuations display
convergence to longer-run trends, absence of asset pricing bubble
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index-Datasets.aspx#qat); trend regression by TZE
5.6%
Honolulu MSA (Oahu)
Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina MSA (Maui)
Other Hawaii Non-Metro
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Index, 2000 = 100 (log scale)
200
160
120
80
60
40
201975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Broader FHFA All-Transactions Indexes of housing valuations display
convergence to longer-run trends, absence of asset pricing bubble
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index-Datasets.aspx#qat); trend regression by TZE
5.6%
Honolulu MSA (Oahu)
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Alternatively, model the trend component of real Oahu FHFA house
valuations from its stationary component (note slight curvature)
Real FHFA index, 2017 = 100
100
80
60
40
20
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
U.S. recessions shaded
Japan
Bubble
Sub-prime
Bubble
Sources: Federal Housing Financial Administration, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment, index re-basing, deflation using quarterly interpolated Honolulu CPI-U, non-linear trend regression by TZE
2%-ish
New
Wave
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Longer-run trends in real Oahu mean single-family home prices may be
converging shy of constant-dollar $1 million, more striking curvature
Oahu real single-family mean annual home prices
in million constant, 2017, dollars (log scale)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
$982k
(1990)
$1.023m
(2005)+𝜎
−𝜎
Source: Robert C. Schmitt (1976) Historical Statistics of Hawaii, UH Press; Bank of Hawaii; Honolulu Board of REALTORS® Monthly Housing Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://data.bls.gov/cgi-
bin/surveymost?r9); regression-based projection based on Akaike Information Criterion-minimizing nonlinear regression by TZ Economics
$980k-ish
(mid-2018)
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Annual Oahu existing home sale price distributions:
snapshots and changing shapes of purchasing power
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Oahu existing home prices (2017) in $100,000 increments (n = 9,850):
88% < $1 million; 98% < $2 million; 99% < $3 million
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS® (2017), histogram estimated by TZ Economics
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Truncated to
include 98.9%
Median $545,000
Mean
$649,00
$1 million
Sales
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Estimated empirical gamma distribution of all 2017 Oahu existing
home sales prices: 4 out of 5 transactions were below $1 million
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS® (2017), empirical gamma distribution estimated by TZ Economics
Oahu Island-wide
Metro Region
.0000
.0002
.0004
.0006
.0008
.0010
Frequency
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 $2.5 million
50% 32% 18%
Median $545,000
Mean
$649,00
$1 million
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Dynamics of 2010s housing cycle from perspective of annual Oahu
existing home sale price distributions: rough start, steady advance
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0.00000
0.00050
0.00100
0.00150
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Oahu all existing home sales price empirical gamma distribution 2009
Frequency
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®; special correspondence); estimated empirical gamma approximations to the distribution of annual Oahu existing single-family home sales prices by TZE
/ truncated
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0.00000
0.00050
0.00100
0.00150
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Oahu all existing home sales price empirical gamma distribution 2010
Frequency
/ truncated
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®; special correspondence); estimated empirical gamma approximations to the distribution of annual Oahu existing single-family home sales prices by TZE
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0.00000
0.00050
0.00100
0.00150
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Oahu all existing home sales price empirical gamma distribution 2011
Frequency
/ truncated
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®; special correspondence); estimated empirical gamma approximations to the distribution of annual Oahu existing single-family home sales prices by TZE
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0.00000
0.00050
0.00100
0.00150
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Oahu all existing home sales price empirical gamma distribution 2012
Frequency
/ truncated
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®; special correspondence); estimated empirical gamma approximations to the distribution of annual Oahu existing single-family home sales prices by TZE
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0.00000
0.00050
0.00100
0.00150
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Oahu all existing home sales price empirical gamma distribution 2013
Frequency
/ truncated
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®; special correspondence); estimated empirical gamma approximations to the distribution of annual Oahu existing single-family home sales prices by TZE
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0.00000
0.00050
0.00100
0.00150
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Oahu all existing home sales price empirical gamma distribution 2014
Frequency
/ truncated
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®; special correspondence); estimated empirical gamma approximations to the distribution of annual Oahu existing single-family home sales prices by TZE
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0.00000
0.00050
0.00100
0.00150
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Oahu all existing home sales price empirical gamma distribution 2015
Frequency
/ truncated
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®; special correspondence); estimated empirical gamma approximations to the distribution of annual Oahu existing single-family home sales prices by TZE
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0.00000
0.00050
0.00100
0.00150
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Oahu all existing home sales price empirical gamma distribution 2016
Frequency
/ truncated
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®; special correspondence); estimated empirical gamma approximations to the distribution of annual Oahu existing single-family home sales prices by TZE
26
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0.00000
0.00050
0.00100
0.00150
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Oahu all existing home sales price empirical gamma distribution 2017
Frequency
/ truncated
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®; special correspondence); estimated empirical gamma approximations to the distribution of annual Oahu existing single-family home sales prices by TZE
27
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Real GDP growth, growth forecasts
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Quarterly real GDP during the 2010s expansion has grown at trend
rates of 2.17 percent/annum (U.S.), and 1.72 percent/annum (Hawaii)
Hawaii (billion chained 2009 dollars)
76
72
68
64
60
U.S. (trillion chained 2009 dollars)
17
16
15
14
13
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Hawaii(left scale)
U.S.(right scale)
U.S. recession shaded Lehman
Brothers
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (https://bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp and https://bea.gov/regional/index.htm); quarterly data, compound annual percent changes ( ො𝑦) calculated by TZE
from slopes (𝛽) of linear regressions of the natural logs of real GDP (𝑙𝑛 𝑦 ) on time (𝑡 in quarters) ො𝑦 = 100 𝑒4𝛽 − 1 , for the U.S. ො𝑦 = 2.17 from 2009Q2-2018Q1, and for Hawaii ො𝑦 = 1.72 from 2009Q3-2017Q4.
2.2%
29
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June 2018 NABE forecast survey expectation for U.S. real GDP growth:
3.1 percent 2nd quarter, subsiding to average 2.1 percent by end-2019
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Annualized percent change
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192008
3.1%
2.1%
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (https://bea.gov/regional/index.htm) quarterly data through 2018Q1; National Association for Business Economics (public site at
http://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/June_2018_Outlook_Survey_Summary_v2.aspx), quarterly forecasts 2018Q2 - 2019Q4.
Annualized growth 2009Q2 – 2018Q1: 2.12%
Tohoku
Seismic
Event
Polar
Vortex
Superstorm
Sandy
The Great Recession
+𝜎
−𝜎
30
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-4
-2
0
2
4
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Percent
Federal Reserve Board FOMC projections for annual U.S. real GDP growth:
2.7 percent this year, decelerating to longer run potential of 1.7 percent
2.72.4
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (https://bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xlsx); annual data through 2017; Federal Reserve Board, Federal Open Market Committee median projections
2018-2020 and longer run, along with range from high and low (of 15 projections)(https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20180321.htm).
U.S. recessions shaded
2.0
1.7
31
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June 2018 NABE Survey: “…When do you expect the next recession?”
one-third say not before 2021; two-thirds say most likely by early-2020
Source: National Association for Business Economics Economic Outlook Survey (June 2018) (http://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/June_2018_Outlook_Survey_Summary_v2.aspx); Question: “When (in what
year and quarter) do you expect the beginning of the next recession?”
0
10
20
30
Percent of respondents
2018 2019 2020 Later
2.6%
15.4%
20.5%
10.3%
33.3%
2.6%
15.4%
32
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Where are we in the real estate cycle and when is the next downturn?
June 2018 U.S. survey results from RCLCO (real estate consulting)
End-2017 Mid-2018
Next
Downturn?
≥ 2021
2020
2019
2018
It started
Source: Len Bogorad, Managing Director, and John Rendleman, Associate (June 28, 2018) RCLCO Mid-Year 2018 Sentiment Survey Results (http://www.rclco.com/pub/doc/RCLCO-Advisory-Sentiment-Survey-
2018-Mid-Year.pdf), used with permission of the publisher
33
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Monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates
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Macro backdrop: FRB policy statement
▪ “The [Federal Reserve Board, Federal Open Market] Committee expects that
further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be
consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market
conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective
over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.”
▪ “In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the
Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to
2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby
supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent
inflation.”
Source: Federal Reserve Board (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20180613a.htm)
35
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-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Billion $
per month
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mortgage-backed securities
Federal agency debt
Treasury securities
Three rounds of Quantitative Easing concluded
at the end of 2014; now it’s time to unwind
Source: Federal Reserve Board (H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions); average monthly changes in U.S. Treasury notes and bonds (including TIPS), federal agency debt securities, and
mortgage-backed securities (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/)
QE1
QE2
QE3
Change in Federal Reserve securities holdings
36
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-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Fed to “begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this
year [2017], provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated”
Sources: Monthly averages of weekly averages, Federal Reserve Board (Statistical Release H.4.1); compiled through June 2018; Federal Reserve Governor Jerome H. Powell (June 01, 2017) Thoughts on the Normalization of
Monetary Policy, presented at the Economic Club of New York (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20170601a.htm)
Assets
Liabilities
U.S. Treasury securities
Mortgage-backed securities
Credit, liquidity facilities
Federal Reserve notes in circulation
Reserve deposits of depository institutions
Reverse reposLehman Brothers fails
Other liabilities
Trilli
on d
olla
rs
Agency debt
37
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0
1
2
3
4
5
Percent
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
U.S. Treasury yields through mid-June 2018, FOMC fed funds projections
(June 2018); FOMC overshooting to longer-run “neutral” fed funds rate
FOMC fed funds rate
projections, June 2018Taper
Tantrum
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Selected Interest Rates H.15 through June 2018 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/) and FOMC forecast from June 2018 meeting
(https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20180613.htm).
Trump Tax
Jump Cut30y
2.9%
U.S. recession shaded
10y
Lehman
Brothers
3.4%
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We can use the co-movement of yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury
Notes and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to infer their outlook
0
4
8
12
16
Percent
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate
10-year T-Note yield
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US), Federal Reserve Board (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm)
39
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Based on a comparatively stable econometric relationship, 1998-2018,
add 173 basis points to the forecast for yields on 10-year T-Notes
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Percent points (both scales)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Residual (left scale)
Actual 30-year rate
Fitted from model
Actual (right scale)
Model (right scale)
Financial crisis shaded
+𝜎
−𝜎
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US), Federal Reserve Board (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm); linear regression of former on latter by TZE
40
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0 10 20
Responses
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Percentage points
0 10 20
Responses
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Percentage points
0 10 20
Responses
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Percentage points
0 10 20
Responses
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Percentage points
3.00%3.25%
3.58%
NABE June 2018 forecast for yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury Notes
plus 173 b.p. gives you 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate projection
Source: National Association for Business Economics (http://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/June_2018_Outlook_Survey_Summary_v2.aspx)
3.45%
2018Q2 2018Q4 2019Q2 2019Q4
Mortgage rate:
4.73%
Mortgage rate:
4.98%
Mortgage rate:
5.18%
Mortgage rate:
5.31%
41
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How much do federal policy changes affect economic outcomes?
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February 2018 NABE Survey: “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act…will increase the
growth rate of real GDP [ ො𝑦] over the next year by (in percentage points)?”
Source: National Association for Business Economics Economic Policy Survey (February 2018) (http://files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/6279cc45-156e-41dc-8cbc-c22c7aeea425.pdf?ver=1519611505000)
3
4
19
45
18
7
3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Don't know / no opinion
0%
0 < ො𝑦 < 0.25%
0.25 - 0.49%
0.5 - 0.74%
0.75 - 0.99%
Additional growth ( ො𝑦) ≥ 1.0%
from tax cuts
Percent of respondents
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0.0%
0.0%
7.3%
2.4%
29.3%
61.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Don't know / no opinion
< 0
0
0.01-0.19
0.20-0.39
0.4
June 2018 NABE Survey: “How much do you forecast federal fiscal
policy changes…add to or subtract from real GDP growth (in 2018)?”
Median: 0.4%
> 60% say no less than 0.4%
Source: National Association for Business Economics Economic Outlook Survey (June 2018) (http://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/June_2018_Outlook_Survey_Summary_v2.aspx); Question: “How much do
you forecast federal fiscal policy changes will add to or subtract from real GDP growth? (measured Q4/Q4)”
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0.0%
7.3%
9.8%
12.2%
39.0%
31.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Don't know / no opinion
< 0
0
0.01-0.19
0.20-0.39
0.4
June 2018 NABE Survey: “How much do you forecast federal fiscal
policy changes…add to or subtract from real GDP growth (in 2019)?”
Median: 0.3%
> 60% say less than 0.4%
Source: National Association for Business Economics Economic Outlook Survey (June 2018) (http://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/June_2018_Outlook_Survey_Summary_v2.aspx); Question: “How much do
you forecast federal fiscal policy changes will add to or subtract from real GDP growth? (measured Q4/Q4)”
45
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U.S. withdrew from Paris Climate Accord, abandoned Trans-Pacific
Partnership, dumped NAFTA, annoyed G-7, and started a Trade War
[This slide intentionally left blank]
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June 2018 NABE Survey: “…net effect of trade policy on U.S. real
GDP growth?” 75 percent say negative, 12 percent say positive
0
2.4
26.8
46.3
12.2
9.8
2.4
0.0%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Don’t know / no opinion
Strongly negative
Moderately negative
Marginally negative
No net effect
Marginally positive
Moderately positive
Strongly positive
Source: National Association for Business Economics Economic Outlook Survey (June 2018) (http://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/June_2018_Outlook_Survey_Summary_v2.aspx); Question: “What is your
current forecast regarding the net effect of trade policy on U.S. GDP growth through the end of 2019?”
47
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June 2018 NABE Survey: “…net effect of interest rates on capital
expenditures?” 54 percent say negative, 10 percent say positive
Source: National Association for Business Economics Economic Outlook Survey (June 2018) (http://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/June_2018_Outlook_Survey_Summary_v2.aspx); Question: “What is your
current forecast regarding the net effect of interest rates on business capital expenditures through the end of 2019?”
0
0
17.1
36.6
36.6
4.9
4.9
0.0%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Don’t know / no opinion
Strongly negative
Moderately negative
Marginally negative
No net effect
Marginally positive
Moderately positive
Strongly positive
48
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June 2018 NABE Survey: “…net effect of energy prices on U.S. real
GDP growth?” 55 percent say negative, 17.5 percent say positive
0
0
22.5
32.5
27.5
7.5
10.0
0.0%
0 10 20 30 40
Don’t know / no opinion
Strongly negative
Moderately negative
Marginally negative
No net effect
Marginally positive
Moderately positive
Strongly positive
Source: National Association for Business Economics Economic Outlook Survey (June 2018) (http://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/June_2018_Outlook_Survey_Summary_v2.aspx); Question: “What is your
current expectation regarding the net effect of energy prices on U.S. real GDP growth through the end of 2019?”
49
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Pau
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