nuclear weapons today a presentation prepared by the medical association for prevention of war
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Nuclear Weapons Today
A presentation prepared by the Medical Association for Prevention
of War
MAPW (Australia) Nuclear Weapons 2006
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The WeaponsThe EffectsThe LocationsThe International
Response
Nuclear Weapons Today
The Basics
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Nuclear Weapon Cores
Fission weapons require “fissile isotopes” Most important - plutonium-239 (Pu-239)
and uranium-235 (U-235)Some weapons are made from both
isotopesBasic nuclear weapons rely on nuclear
fission chain reaction to produce large amount of energy in a very short time
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Nuclear Explosions
Explosive power measured by the mass equivalent of TNT:A 1 kiloton bomb has an explosive yield
equivalent to 1000 tons of TNTA 1 megaton bomb has an explosive yield
equivalent to 1,000,000 tons of TNT
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Plutonium
Weapons grade - produced in military plutonium-production reactors specifically for nuclear weapons use
Reactor grade - produced in all nuclear-power reactorsFor electricity production, but can be used to
make weapons
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Plutonium
Powerful nuclear explosive
Highly radioactive and toxic
The half-life of plutonium is 24,500 years
Remains hazardous for 250,000 years
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Uranium
Naturally occurring uranium contains 0.7% U-235
Weapons use highly-enriched uranium (HEU) - proportion of U-235 increased
Weapons grade - usually enriched to greater than 90%, but lower percentages still useable
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Separated Plutonium Stocks
Country Military plutonium
Civil plutonium
Russia 95 tonnes 88 tonnesUS 47 tonnes 45 tonnesUK 3.2 tonnes 96.2 tonnesFrance 5 tonnes 78.6 tonnesChina 4.8 tonnes -Israel 0.6 tonnes -India 0.4 tonnes 1.5 tonnesJapan - 5.4 tonnesGermany - 12.5 tonnes
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Estimated HEU stocks
Country Military highly-enriched uranium
Russia 1070 tonnes
US 575 tonnes
UK 21.9 tonnes
France 29 tonnes
China 20 tonnes
Pakistan 1.1 tonnes
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Core requirements
A 20 kt nuclear bomb requires: 4-5 kg of weapons grade plutonium OR10-15 kg of weapons grade uranium
A 1kt nuclear weapon could be made with: 1 kg of weapons-grade plutonium OR 2.5 kg of weapons-grade uranium
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The fission process
Nucleus of U-235 or Pu-329 captures a neutron - U-236, Pu-240 nucleus formed.
U-236, Pu-240 very unstable, rapidly split into two (fission)
Neutrons and a large burst of energy are emittedComplete fissioning of 1 gram of U-235
releases 23,000 kilowatt-hours of heat
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The fission process
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Critical mass
Each nucleus undergoing fission must produce a neutron that splits another nucleus
Critical mass - the minimum mass of fissile material that can sustain a nuclear fission chain reaction
Sphere is optimum shape
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Nuclear explosions
Nuclear explosions occur at super-critical masses
Basic weapons contain fissile material less than critical mass.
Within half a millionth of a second:Temperatures - hundreds of millions degrees
centigrade, and pressures - millions of atmospheres, build up
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Fusion
Isotopes of hydrogen - deuterium and tritium Extremely high temperatures required for
reaction to occur Require a fission bomb to provide energy to
initiate reaction Used mainly to ‘boost’ fission bombs - increase
fission rate by providing more high energy neutrons
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Main Components Of Nuclear Weapons
High quality, high purity conventional high explosives and reliable detonators
Electronic circuitsA tamper and neutron reflectorA core of fissile materialA neutron source
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Detonation techniques
Gun technique Only used with HEUMass of sub-critical HEU fired at another -
sum of two masses supercriticalSimple techniqueLong assembly timeHiroshima bomb
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Detonation techniques
Implosion technique1/10 the assembly time of the gun techniqueHEU or plutonium can be usedFissile core surrounded by conventional
high explosives
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Detonation techniques
Implosion techniqueExplosives detonate and uniformly
compress the core and increase its density, making it super-critical
Neutrons also fired into fissile material to encourage fission chain reaction
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Delivery Systems:
Gravity Bombs Ballistic Missile
Warheads Cruise Missile
Warheads
Other Forms:- Anti-ballistic Missiles- Anti-submarine Warfare
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Tactical vs. Strategic Nuclear Weapons
Tactical: US and Russian definition - less than
500 km rangeStrategic:
Intended to be detonated in other countries, i.e. intercontinental delivery
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Launch on Warning (LoW)
Retaliation with nuclear weapons to a perceived nuclear attack by another state
Response to a warning (by radar or satellite sensors) of attacking missiles
Decision must be made in minutes
The Effects of Nuclear Weapons
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August 6, 1945
US detonated a 15 kiloton bomb over Hiroshima, Japan
Deaths – 66,000 Injuries - 69,000
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August 9, 1945
US detonated a 21 kiloton bomb over Nagasaki, Japan
Deaths - 73,884 Injuries - 74,909 6.7 million square metres leveled
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Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Ground temperatures reached about 7,000 degrees
“Black rain” containing radioactive fallout poured down for hours after the explosions
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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
Flash Intense flash of light, a thousand times
brighter than lightningPulse of heat radiation - sets fire to
combustible material 14 km awayPulse of X-rays, lethal within 3 km
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FireballForms after the ‘flash’ and rises in the airCan permanently blind people up to 80 km
awayAll exposed body parts burned deeply within
10 kmSuperficial burns within fifteen km
One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
BlastPowerful blast wave - starts immediately,
but travels slower than the flash and fireball
Destroys everything within 2 km100% fatalities within 3 km50% of people killed within 8 kmMajor damage to buildings within 14 km,
windows broken out to 20-30 km
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BlastHurricane force winds, first outwards, then
inwardsTornado force winds (six hundred km/hr),
within four km - can drive glass splinters into people
People picked up and hurled into any object strong enough to be still standing
One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
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FirestormFires started by the first flash coalesceCause sufficient updraft to form their
own wind, which blows inwards from all sides - increasing the intensity of the fire
Fire uses all available oxygen “People caught in the open would melt,
those in shelters would probably be baked”
One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
Acute Radiation ExposureCentral nervous system dysfunctionGastrointestinal damageUncontrolled internal bleedingBleeding from gums or within the skinMassive infectionsDeath
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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
Delayed RadiationEverything in vicinity of explosion radioactiveHiroshima - radioactive rainstorms1/3 of original fissile material not destroyedWidespread contamination Increased risk of developing cancer for
survivors
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In case of a nuclear bomb - don’t bother to call your doctorNo significant medical response possibleHospitals destroyed, most health care
providers killed
One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
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Medical response barriersNo electricity, water or telephone serviceNo drugs, sterile IV solutions, bandages Impassable roads, inaccessible areasOverloading of emergency/ hospital
services in surrounding areasRescuers risk radiation exposure
One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
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Medical problems: one city of 1-2 millionFifty times more severe burns than burn beds
in North AmericaA year’s supply of blood for transfusions
needed immediatelyBottlenecks and delays due to the need for
radioactivity assaysMost of injured die, even from easily treated
injuries
One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air
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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated At Ground-Level
Enormous crater - 400 metres wide and 70 metres deep
Major fallout of radioactive particulates, potentially lethal hundreds of kilometres downwind
Area of blast damage and immediate deaths about one half of air detonation scenario
More deaths days to weeks after bomb due to radiation sickness from fallout
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Effect Of Nuclear War
Many nuclear bombs explodedRadioactive contamination of whole
continentsPermanent large scale damage to
environmentNuclear winter
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Nuclear Winter
Airborne contaminants absorb and reflect the sun’s rays
Results in an extended period of semi-darkness and freezing temperatures
Potentially generated from less than 100 detonations
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The view of the Earth from Apollo 10 (18 May 1969) from 26,000 nautical miles on its journey to the Moon
Nuclear Winter
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This is what the world would look like after a large-scale nuclear holocaust
Nuclear Winter
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Nuclear winter could occur with detonation of 100 nuclear warheads over major cities
30,000 weapons currently, deployed – 90% reduction of deployed weapons could still cause nuclear winter
This puts nuclear weapons are in a league of their own
Nuclear Winter
Nuclear Weapons Testing
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Nuclear Testing
2,058 nuclear test explosions by 8 countries:
United States – 1,030 Russia (USSR) - 715 France - 210 United Kingdom - 45 China - 45 India - 7 Pakistan - 6
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Effects of Nuclear Testing
•2.4 million people estimated to die from cancer as a result of nuclear testing
•Tests sites around the world contaminated
Nuclear Terrorism
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Nuclear Terrorism
Only 20kg of HEU and 10kg of Plutonium needed
Possibilities:
-primitive nuclear explosive
-attacking a nuclear-power reactor
-nuclear weapon
-transport attack
-“dirty bomb”
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Nuclear Material Availability
Fissile materials are not controlled or accounted for effectively
At least 40 kg of weapons-usable uranium and plutonium has been stolen
Only 1/3 of an estimated 600 tonnes of weapons-usable material in the former USSR has been secured
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Terrorism And Nuclear Energy
The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that current nuclear power plants are structurally vulnerable against the Sept. 11 attack scenario
Over 120 documented cases of nuclear sabotage
Credible threats reported by security agencies
States Possessing Nuclear Weapons
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Nuclear Weapons -Declared States
USA 4530 780 5000 10,310
Russia 3800 3400 11000 18,200
France 290 60 350
China 400 150 550
Britain 185 15 200
Strategic Tactical Reserve Total
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Nuclear Weapons - De Facto States
Israel – 75-200
India – 40-50
Pakistan – 25-50
Nth Korea - ?
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Nuclear Weapons
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Numbers by Region
0
2000400060008000
1000012000140001600018000
20000
30,000 Nuclear Weapons
USEuropeMiddle EastAsia
Arms Control and Disarmament
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Multilateral (3 or more states) Bilateral (2 states)Unilateral (1 state)In existence: proliferation, testing,
geographic limitations Not in existence: complete
disarmament, fissile material control
International Law and Nuclear Weapons
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Key Terms
Disarmament Decrease in
number ‘General and
Complete’ Weapon Specific Abolition
Arms Control Limitations ‘General and
Complete’ Weapon Specific Non-Proliferation
Vertical Horizontal
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Main roles:ForumFacilitatingVerification & EnforcementEducationUN Treaties: Antarctica Treaty, PTBT, Outer Space Treaty, NPT,
Sea-Bed Treaty, NWFZs, CTBT
United Nations
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IAEA
Established by UN in 1957 Nuclear non-proliferation Nuclear Science and Technology in
Sustainable Development Nuclear Safety and Security
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Conference on Disarmament
UN BodyEstablished in 197966 countries are membersAgreement by ConsensusBased in Geneva, Switzerland
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Major Treaties (Bilateral & Multilateral)
INF START NPT CTBT
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Missiles with ranges of 500-5,500 km World-first in disarmament talks:
a) Nuclear arsenal reduction
b) Category of weapon eliminated
c) Extensive on-site verification Signed 8 December 1987
Intermediate-Range Forces (INF) Treaty
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•START I - signed in 1991 – US and Russia agreed to reduce ICBMs,
SLBMs and warheads•START II - signed in 1993
– Reduction of strategic nuclear arsenals to 3,000-3,500 by 2007
•START III – superceded by SORT•SORT – not verified or reversible
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START)
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Opened for signature in 1968
More signatures than any other arms control treaty
Two-part bargain between nuclear weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS)
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
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(NPT) Article VI
“Each of the Parties to the Treaty
undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to
cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to
nuclear disarmament, and on a
treaty on general and complete disarmament
under strict and effective international control.”
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(NPT) Safeguards
The International Atomic Energy Agency is responsible for a safeguards system to verify compliance with the NPT by conducting regular inspections of signatories to the Treaty
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Review Conference – (RevCon)every 5 years over 4 weeksmeetings held at United Nations in New
York1995 – NPT indefinite extension2000 – 13 Point Action Plan
(NPT) The Review Cycle
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2-27 May 2005
Disagreement over conference agenda:
-Nth Korea, Iran, CTBT, disarmament, non-NPT states, past decisions/agreements
No substantive text produced
NPT 2005 Review
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Opened for signature 24 September 1996
Bans all nuclear testsAll 44 “Annex II” must sign and ratify 3 “Annex II” states still to sign11 “Annex II” states still to ratifyCTBTO working from Vienna
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
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First suggested at the UN over 50 years ago Enthusiasm for a FMCT from early 1990s
onwards Talks at Conference on Disarmament
deadlocked Disagreement over:
-Existing stocks
-Scope of the treaty
Fissile Materials Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT or “fissban”)
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28 April 2004Threat from Non-state actorsCalls on states to enact national
legislationMember states must report to the 1540
Committee
Security Council Res 1540
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Advisory Opinion, July 8, 1996:
“...the threat or use of nuclear weapons would generally be contrary to the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, and in particular the principles and rules of humanitarian law.”
International Court of Justice
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Supplements and reinforces the role of international laws (UN Charter, humanitarian law NPT etc)
Nuclear weapons are now in effect illegal under international law
International Court of Justice - Implications
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Treaties completely banning nuclear explosive devices in territories:Latin America (Treaty of Tlatelolco)South Pacific (Treaty of Rarotonga)South East Asia (Treaty of Bangkok)Africa (Treaty of Pelindaba)
Proposed zones for Central Asia, Central Europe and the Middle East
Nuclear Free Zones (NWFZs)
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1. Antarctic Treaty 2. Treaty of Tlatelolco 3.Treaty of Rarotonga 4.Treaty of Bangkok 5.Treaty of Pelindaba 6. Mongolia
11
22 334455
66
Existing NWFZs
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NPT: Signed-188, Ratified-188CTBT: Signed-175, Ratified-122
(“Annex 2”-33)FMCT: Treaty in draft formNWC: Treaty in draft form
Status Of Key Treaties In 2006
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Status Of The Non-proliferation & Disarmament Regimes
The risk of nuclear war has not gone away and is in fact increasing
The opportunity presented by the end of the cold war was squandered
Multilateral disarmament deadlocked
The ICAN Campaign
ICAN stands for International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear
weapons
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ICAN
ICAN to address the erosion of the global nuclear disarmament regime
Nuclear Weapons Convention – Review, update, progress
MAPW to take a leading role within IPPNW and the global peace movement in the ICAN Campaign
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Draft text produced by NGOs Submitted to the UN by Costa Rica in 1997 NWC would prohibit:
development testing production stockpiling transfer use and threat of use
Model Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC)
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What ICAN Would Aim For
IPPNW members feel that a coordinated effort across states and institutions, in the framework of voluntary governmental and non-governmental participation, is necessary if there is to be a reversal of the nuclear threat.
One element of such coordination will be a multilateral agreement to prohibit and eliminate nuclear weapons ~ a Nuclear Weapons Convention.
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How To Work Towards A NWC
It is strongly felt that the campaign for a NWC would need to be based on an Ottawa style process that lead to the Landmines Treaty – a strong and effectively coordinated global coalition of NGO's and international organisations that drew in governments, starting with Canada, and achieved a treaty in the space of five years.
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Phases for Elimination
All States possessing nuclear weapons will be required to destroy their arsenals according to a series of phases.
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Step by Step…
The Convention outlines a series of five phases for the elimination of nuclear weapons beginning with: taking nuclear weapons off alert removing weapons from deployment removing nuclear warheads from their delivery
vehicles disabling the warheads removing and disfiguring the "pits" and placing the fissile material under inter-national
control.
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Fissile Materials And Delivery Vehicles
The Convention also prohibits the production of weapons-usable fissile material and requires delivery vehicles to be destroyed or converted to make them non-nuclear capable.
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Working Towards A Nuclear Weapons Free World
Today some of these issues may appear intractable, and there is no guarantee that they are soluble.
However, a robust and open debate is the most likely - if not the only - way to generate creative solutions and engage the broad transnational and cross-industrial involvement necessary for a nuclear weapons free world.
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Nuclear Weapons Knowledge
Nuclear weapons knowledge cannot be disinvented. However, a vast portion of the knowledge, design and maintenance information can and should be destroyed once it is no longer necessary for disarmament.
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Our Responsibility
Moreover, and precisely because we cannot return to a world innocent of nuclear weapons knowledge, the answer to the "genie out of the bottle" is to increase scientific responsibility and awareness of potential proliferation risks.
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Get Involved
For further information about the NCW, please see: http://www.ippnw.org/NWC.html
or contact the Medical Association for Prevention of War (Australia)
phone: (03) 8344 1637
email: mapw@mapw.org.au
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Medical Association for Prevention of War Australia
(MAPW)
National Office: P.O. Box 1379, Carlton VIC 3053, AustraliaPh: 03 8344 1637 Fax: 03 8344 1638
www.mapw.org.au mapw@mapw.org.auAustralian affiliate of International Physicians for Prevention of
Nuclear War (IPPNW)
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