nrel planning & analysis dr. robin newmark · 2013-10-01 · nrel is a national laboratory of...
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NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
NREL Planning & Analysis
Dr. Robin Newmark Strategic Energy Analysis Center World Renewable Energy Forum May 16, 2012 Denver, Colorado NREL/PR-6A20-54950
Strategic Energy Analysis
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
RE Resource Mapping
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
RE Resource Mapping
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
RE Resource Mapping
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
RE Resource Mapping
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Resource Solar PV/CSP) Wind Geothermal Water Power Biopower
Theoretical Potential
206,000 GW (PV) 11,100GW (CSP)
8,000 GW (onshore) 2,200 GW (offshore to 50 nm)
39 GW (conventional) 520 GW (EGS) 4 GW (co-produced)
140 GW 78 GW
RE Resource Mapping
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Siting and Geospatial Resource Analysis ..from resource potential to economic potential
Unfiltered with Transmission >6kWh/m2/day
Land Exclusions and <1% slope
Measure the resource in the right place
Scale matters: Coarse scale data underestimates high wind class resource
Filter appropriately
NREL works with the global research community to improve the representation of RE technologies in integrated assessment models
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Must understand the resource today and as well as future vulnerabilities
• What is available? • What is accessible? • What will it cost to access? • How will these resources and
supporting infrastructure be affected under climate change?
U.S. Renewable Resources
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Potential Impacts: Biomass/Bioenergy
Climate Variable Related Impacts
Air temperature, precipitation, humidity
Availability and distribution of land with suitable conditions; Reduced yield due to water supply and plant transpiration, possible lengthened growing season
Carbon dioxide levels
Potential increased yields in most crops, but large variation by crop
Changes in precipitation
Reduced yield due to droughts and floods
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Potential Impacts: Hydropower
Climate Variable Related Impacts
Air temperature, precipitation, extreme weather events
Total and seasonal water availability (inflow to plant's reservoirs); Dry spells; Changes in hydropower system operation; Evaporation from reservoirs
Change in precipitation and runoff Changes in power output likely
Change in peak of hydrograph Changes in seasonal levels of output
Changes in timing of snowmelt
Changes in seasonal levels of output
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Potential Impacts: Solar
Climate Variable Related Impacts
Air temperature, humidity, precipitation
Insolation changes (clouds); Decrease in efficiency due to decrease in radiation; Decrease in efficiency due to ambient conditions
Irradiance
Alter incident solar radiation (due to increased cloud cover)
Increase in air temperature
Lowered efficiencies
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Potential Impacts: Wind
Climate Variable Related Impacts
Wind and extreme weather events
Changes in wind resource (intensity and duration); changes in wind shear; damage from extreme weather
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Sources of Uncertainty
• Timing, severity, and location of environmental impacts due to climate change • Resiliency of existing infrastructure and utility strategies • Rate of improved ability to forecast anticipated impacts
regionally and locally • Relative share of renewables on future grids and where
technology diversity can enhance resiliency
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