now and future from imo ghg study

September 29th, 2009

International Symposium on Reduction of GHG Emission from

International Shipping – from IMO to COP15 –

Organized by NMRI :National Maritime Research Institute, Japan

PROLOGUE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Fuel

Con

sum

ptio

n (M

illio

n to

ns)

This study

IMO Expert Group (Freight-Trend), 2007

Endresen et al., JGR, 2007

Endresen et al (Freight-Trend)., JGR, 2007

EIA Total marine fuel sales

Point Estimates from the Studies

This study (Freight trend)

IMO GHG Study (NMRI is one of the member) reported GHG emission from international shipping in 2007 is estimated about 870 Million tones.

Scenarios for CO2 emissions from International Shipping from 2007 to 2050 in the absence of climate policies

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2 em

issi

ons

from

shi

ps (m

illio

n to

ns C

O2

/ yr)

A1FI

A1B

A1T

A2

B1

B2

Max

Min

B2

B1

A2

A1T

A1B

A1F

I

Now and Future What we can do?From IMO GHG Study

1 to 10Energy management1 to 10Voyage optimization

10 to 50 %

5 to 50Fleet management, logistics and incentives

OPERATION (All ships)0Exhaust gas CO2 reduction

1 to 10Renewable energy5 to 15Low-carbon fuels5 to 15Power and propulsion systems2 to 20Hull and super structure

25 to 75 %

10 to 50 %

2 to 50Concept, speed and capability

CombinedCombinedSaving (%) of CO2 t-nm

DESIGN (New ships)

What and how international shipping shall do?

• IMO MEPC 59 agreed to circulate 4 technical measures: EEDI, Verification method of EEDI, SEEMP and EEOI, but not enough.

• IMO Assembly 26th Nov-Dec. 2009 – IMO policy• UNFCCC COP15 Dec. 2009 Framework for after

Kyoto protocol