nn state climate change action program of baja california (peacc-bc) tereza cavazos depto. de...
Post on 30-Dec-2015
214 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
nn
State Climate Change Action Program of Baja California (PEACC-BC)
Tereza CavazosDepto. de Oceanografía Física, CICESE
http://peac-bc.cicese.mx
Oceans & Weather Impacting Business and InfrastructureThe Maritime Alliance, San Diego, CA, 4 March 2011
(PND 2007-2012, Fig. VI.1 from SEMARNAT, 2009)
Axis 4: Environmental Sustainability
Sectoral Programs
National Strategy on Climate Change (2007)
Special Program of CC (2009-2012)
State Climate Change Action Programs (PEACC)
National Development Program (2007-2012)
Mexico’s Public Policy on Climate Change
Technical Secretariat
ExternalExpertGroups
Advisory
Review
Climatology Health
Energy Economy
Agric/Ranch. Marine Ecos.
FisheriesBiodiversity
Transport
Urban Dev.Water
Coasts Housing
Legislation
Society
CICESECOLEFUABC
GHG Invent.
LocalExperts
PEACC-BC General
Coordination
PEACC Objectives (2008-2011) To update GHG emissions inventory and scenarios To develop regional climate change scenarios To diagnose the state of socio-economic and environmental
sectors and to evaluate impacts and vulnerability due to climate change
GoalsTo identify opportunities for mitigation and to propose
strategies on adaptation and mitigation for public policy
BC AGRICULTUREThe products of major commercial value are tomatoes, strawberries, wheat, onions and grapes
BC Water51% of the surface water in BC comes from the Colorado River and 30% of the water consumption is from aquifers.
WATER CONSUMPTION IN BC
AGRICULTURE 87%
PUBLIC-URBAN 8%
INDUSTRY 5%
Problematic Aquifers in Mexico (2003)
OVEREXPLOITEDSALT INTRUSIONSALINIZATIONOVEREXPLOITED&SAL.OVEREXPL. & SOIL SAL.
GCMs Resolution(>250 km)
Regional Models
(< 50 km)
Downscaling: Dynamical/Statistical
IPCC: 23 Global
Models (GCMs)
Regional CC Scenarios
If CO2e increases, global temperature increases
2.5 C
Atm
osp
her
ic C
O2
con
cen
trat
ion
(p
pm
)
Year
1.5 C
T
0.0 C
A2
B1
2.0 C
3.0 C
35o
25o
-118o -112o
BC
Regional projections of climate change (selection of best GCMs for the region under
B1 and A2 emissions scenarios)
Statistically downscaled CMIP3 projections (IPCC, 2007) at 12 km resolution using the bias correction technique from the
Livermore National Lab and Santa Clara University, California.
http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections
IPCC Models
6 Models - 12 Simulations
BCCR2 (NOR) - 1
CGCM47 (CAN) - 5
CNRM-C3 (FRA): 1
CSIRO-MK3 (AUS) - 1
MIROC3.2 (JPN) - 3
HADCM3 (UK) - 1
35o
25o -118o -112o
BC
MON
The best models for the region
Projections of changes in temperature (oC) in Baja California during the 21st Century
(relative 1961-1990)
Ensemble of 6 IPCC models (Median ± 1 std)
18.0oC
20.5oC
T (oC)23.0oC
Grapevine climate/maturity groupings (Apr – Oct)
COOL INTERMEDIATE WARM HOT
13 – 15°C 15 – 17°C 17 – 19°C 19 – 24°C
GuadalupeValley,
B.C.
19°C
(Jones 2006)
ZINFANDEL
NEBIOLO
RAISINS
GRENACHE
CABERNET SAUVIGNON
TABLE GRAPES
MERLOT
SYRAH
TEMPRANILLO
SAUVIGNON BLANC
CHARDONAY
Bidecadal change of annual temperature (°C) (relative to 1961-1990)
2030-2049
2080-2099
A2: Altas emisiones
1.5°C – 2°C
>4°C
Bidecadal change of annual precipitation (%)(relative to 1961-1990)
Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change
2010-2029
2080-2099
-14% (26mm)
-36% (66mm)
Bi-decadal change of seasonal precipitation (%) under A2
.
Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change
2080-2099 minus 1961-1990
DJF MAM JJA
DJF DJF
Large variability:El Niño
Change in winter (DJF) precipitation (%) in Baja California.
(relative to 1961-1990; blue dots indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change)
TIJUANA – SAN DIEGO BORDER
Risk areas during heavy precipitation events
(Tomado de Winckell & Le Page, 2003).
San Diego
Tijuana
Water Availability
Present Projection to 2100
(Galindo 2008)
Water Availability in BC: 2,500 MmWater Availability in BC: 2,500 Mm33/yr/yr
Per inhabitant: 1,000 mPer inhabitant: 1,000 m33/yr /yr
(Galindo 2008)
Temperature in BC could increase between 1.5 and 4.5oC during the 21st century
Precipitation could decrease from 15 to 36%
Major Challenges: Water and extreme events
- Efficient use of water and irrigation- Treatment and reuse of water- Desalinization?- Drought resistant plants - Urban Development - Monitoring, forecast and prevention
Conclusions y Recommendations
top related