nigeria development proposal - by christian e

Nigeria

Natural Factors

Land resources•Petroleum, tin, columbite, iron ore,

limestone, lead, zinc, natural gas

•Rich in oil (16-22 billion barrels of oil reserves)

Geography

•Located in Western Africa, bordering the Gulf of Guinea and surrounded by Benin, Cameroon, Niger and Chad

•32nd largest country in the world

Human Factors I

•149,229,090 inhabitants •Population growth rate of 3.667%•Age structure:

▫0-14 years: 49.6 %▫15-64 years: 48%▫65 years + : 2.3 %

•Dependency ratio of 1.08 (extremely high)

Human Factors II

Health•Life expectancy: 52.6 years•Infant mortality rate: 166.66 deaths per

1000 live births (5th highest)•People living with HIV/ Aids: 60,000 (in

2007)•Degree of risk for infectious diseases is

high (rabies or malaria)

Human Factors III

•Total expenditure on health care: 4.6% of GDP

=> Not sufficient

•Government provides some health care•Private providers play a visible role in

health care delivery=> Poor people cannot afford

Human Factors IV

Education•Literacy rate: 68%•School life expectancy: 8 years•Education expenditures: 0.9 % of GDPÞNot sufficient•Over 100 universities in the country•Only well-qualified students get accepted

Table 2: Selected indicators of human poverty for Nigeria

Human Poverty Index (HPI-1)

Probability of not surviving to age 40

(%)

Adult illiteracy rate (%ages 15 and

above)

People not using an improved water

source (%)

Children underweight for age (% aged under 5)

1. Czech Republic (1.5) 1. Hong Kong, China (SAR) (1.4)

1. Georgia (0.0) 1. Barbados (0) 1. Croatia (1)

112. Bangladesh (36.1) 144. Congo (Democratic Republic of the) (37.3)

110. Lao People's Democratic Republic (27.3)

140. Chad (52) 109. Indonesia (28)

113. Madagascar (36.1) 145. Guinea-Bissau (37.4)

111. Tanzania (United Republic of) (27.7)

141. Fiji (53) 110. Central African Republic (29)

114. Nigeria (36.2) 146. Nigeria (37.4) 112. Nigeria (28.0) 142. Nigeria (53) 111. Nigeria (29)

115. Mauritania (36.2) 147. Angola (38.5) 113. Malawi (28.2) 143. Madagascar (53)

112. Djibouti (29)

116. Burundi (36.4) 148. Central African Republic (39.6)

114. Madagascar (29.3)

144. Congo (Democratic Republic of the) (54)

113. Sri Lanka (29)

Table 3: The GDI compared to the HDI – a measure of gender disparity

GDI as % of HDI Life expectancy at birth(years) 

2004

Adult literacy rate (% ages 15 and older) 

2004

Combined primary, secondary and tertiary gross enrolment ratio

2004

Female as % male Female as % male Female as % male

1. Mongolia (100.0%) 1. Russian Federation (121.7%)

1. Lesotho (122.5%) 1. Cuba (121.0%)

128. Lebanon (97.7%) 181. Zambia (102.3%) 107. Ghana (81.3%) 153. Lao People's Democratic Republic (83.8%)

129. Oman (97.7%) 182. Cameroon (102.2%) 108. Uganda (80.1%) 154. Tajikistan (83.7%)

130. Nigeria (97.7%) 183. Nigeria (102.1%) 109. Nigeria (80.0%) 155. Nigeria (83.0%)

131. Kuwait (97.4%) 184. Uganda (102.0%) 110. Tunisia (79.9%) 156. Equatorial Guinea (81.8%)

132. Austria (97.4%) 185. Nepal (101.9%) 111. Congo (79.2%) 157. Ethiopia (81.6%)

155. Afghanistan (88.0%) 190. Swaziland (98.0%) 145. Afghanistan (29.2%) 175. Afghanistan (55.6%)

Economic Factors I

•GDP per capita: 2300 dollars (2008)•GDP composition by sector:

▫Agriculture: 18.1%▫Industry: 50.8%▫Services: 31.1%

•GDP real growth rate: 5.3%•Unemployment rate: 4.9%

Economic Factors II

•Inflation rate: 11.6%•Household income:

▫Lowest 10%: 2%▫Highest 10%: 32.4%

•Labor force: 51.04 million•Occupation by sector:

▫Agriculture: 70%▫Industry: 10%▫Services: 20%

World Bank Economic OutlookCountry Subject Descriptor Units Scale 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nigeria Gross domestic product, constant prices Annual percent change 4.985 5.215 5.934 6.232 6.325Nigeria Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Billions 185.835 199.526 215.126 232.736 251.306Nigeria Gross domestic product per capita, current pricesU.S. dollars Units 1,190.864 1,244.373 1,305.759 1,374.841 1,444.803Nigeria Inflation, average consumer prices Annual percent change 8.796 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5Nigeria Population Persons Millions 156.051 160.342 164.752 169.282 173.938Nigeria Current account balance U.S. dollars Billions 25.631 28.488 31.765 34.056 36.335Nigeria Current account balance Percent of GDP 13.792 14.278 14.766 14.633 14.459

International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009

Physical Capital and Technology

•Infrastructure:▫56 airports▫3,505 km of railway▫193,200 km of roadways▫Only 28,980 km paved

•Industry: 50.8% of GDP

•3 hydroelectric power stations

Physical Capital and Technology

•Nigerian Institute of medical research

•National Space Research and Development Agency

•Federal Ministry of Science and Technology

=> Technology research plays a visible role

Political and Institutional Factors•Legal system based on:

▫English common law▫Islamic law (in 12 northern countries)▫Traditional law

•Chief of state: President Umaru Musa (2007)

•Elected by popular vote for 4 years•Over 13 political parties•Corruption (ranked 121/180)•Militants in the Niger delta region

Sustainability

•External debt: 9.996 billion (2008)ÞDependence on developed countries

•Natural gas production: 32, 82 billion cu m

•Oil production: 2,196 million bbl/ day•Electricity production:21, 92 billion kWh

=>Energy sustainable

Externalities

•Environment has suffered serious damage from oil spills

•Environmental pollution from oil extraction threatens livelihood of neighboring communities

Obstacles to Development•Political instability (internal conflicts and

corruption)

• Lack of infrastructure

• Indebtedness (ext. debt: 9.132 billion)

•High inflation rate (low FDI)

•Overdependence on oil

Conflict/ Natural Resource Trap

Resources and Potential

•Oil and other mineral resources offer great opportunity for economic growth

•Potential in education▫Literacy rate: 68%▫School life expectancy: 8 years▫Spending only 0.9% of GDP

•English as official language -> good for conducting business

Formal Proposal

•Project:▫Junior Management Academy in Lagos▫Completion in 2011▫Path to higher education/ partnership with

firms▫Student scholarships based on National

Entrance Examinations (200 students)▫Partner school of University of

Pennsylvania

Formal Proposal

•Goals▫Improvement of Nigeria’s human capital▫Academy should be a model for other

education initiatives ▫Successful education of future managers ▫Economic growth through better service

sector and higher incomes in the future=> Counteraction against rising violence

and conflicts which harm Nigerian economy

Formal Proposal

•Costs▫Construction of academy: 10 million dollars

(including advanced teaching technology, property prices are higher in Lagos)

▫Salary for teachers (20 graduates of Wharton business school): 2000 dollars net per month

▫Salary for staff (2 cooks, 2 caretakers, 2 cleaner): 500 dollars gross per month

Formal Proposal

•Repayment

▫In 10 years, Academy and other educational institutions should contribute to 0.01% of GDP through higher incomes in service sector

▫This amounts to 20.7 million dollars▫Donations from sponsoring companies,

alumni and government

Formal Proposal

•Success in other countries▫Basic Education Quality Improvement

Project in Panama▫Improvement of secondary education

(10-12 grade)▫Education for the knowledge economy