new technology lecture l12 the rise of the machine
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Lecture L12 THE RISE OF THE MACHINE
“I can assure you on the highest authority that the data processing is a fad and
won’t last out the year.” Editor-in-charge of business books, Prentice-Hall
1957
dictionary.com
68 Years ago
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
-‐ Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
37 years ago
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”
-‐ Kenneth Olsen, president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
Think about this How many computers do you have in your household?
HistoryComputing is time consuming and error prone !
Demands for computation were increasing with more organised societies !
Industrial revolution and the Napoleonic reforms !!
Impetus came from Government: Taxing and Defence
Efforts to speed calculations started early !
Use of logarithmic tables and trigonometry to speed calculations
The Counting Business
The Slide Rule by William Oughtred in 1625 !
Built using logarithms, multiplication of two numbers could be done easier a*b = 10^(log(a)+log(b)) !
!
!
!
Much quicker than manual calculation
The Counting Business
Early Machines
Wilhelm Schickard (1592 -1635) !
German professor of Hebrew and Astronomy University of Tüblingen, Germany !
Built a calculating machine in 1620s !
Documented in letters to Johannes Kepler !1623 and 24
Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) !
French mathematician, physicist, and religious philosopher !
Built an adding machine in1642-44 !
Tried to commercialise the machine but labor was too cheap
Early Machines
Wilhelm von Leibniz (1646-1716) !
German mathematician and philosopher !
Built a machine, the Leibniz Wheel that could multiply and divide
Early Machines
History
Workmanship for building complex machines lacked !
In late eighteenth century demand for calculation was growing !
Calculations were done by hand !
Tedious, slow and error-prone and tables of logarithms were riddled with errors
Think about this The idea of calculating with steam was to many impossible - machines could never take over this human activity !
Yet it did. Can you think of a task done today that will be taken over by machine in the future?
Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Sometimes called Inventor of the Computer!
Wanted to remove the inevitablehuman errors from computing!
Believed that machines could replace laborious and error-prone calculations
Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Designed the Difference Engine!
Machine to compute polynomials!
Got grants but efforts were slow!
Lack of workmanship of the time delayed the project!
Worked stopped 1833
Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Babbage started on a new machine in 1834Beginning of the 2nd Kondratiev – Steam!
Analytical engine!
Programmable machine – with primitive programming languageInput was in punched cardsRun by steam
A Programmable MachineGeneral purpose computer !
Contained mill to calculate, store to keep data, and formulas !
The first programmer: !
Ada Lovelace had influenced the machine
The Cash Register
The Cash Register!
One of the first calculating machines !
Developed by James Ritty in 1879 in response to thefts by staff !
“The Incorruptible Cashier” !
National Cash Register Company – NCR !
One of the salesman was Tomas Watson, Sr. !
Watson would later leave for CRT – Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company
Tabulating Machines
Tabulating Machines
In the US need for data processing was growingOne application was census taking!
US population grew from 17 million in 1840 to 50 million in 1880It took 1.495 clerks 7 years to produce the 1880 census
Tabulating Machines
Source: Tabulating machineHerman Hollerith
Tabulating Machine Company – TMC!
US Census Bureau awarded Herman Hollerith a contract to produce the 1890 census!
Tabulating Machines with punched cards!
Successfully finished in 2,5 yearswith one-third less cost (claimed)
Tabulating Machines
Source: Tabulating machineHerman Hollerith
Used punched cardsHollerith cards were in use until 1960s
Tabulating MachinesThe Business of Data Processing!
Even with the growing need for data processing around 1900, the market for tabulating machines was limited!
CRT and TMC merged and would later change the name to International Business Machines – IBM
“I think there is a market for about five computers” - Tomas Watson, Sr.
Electronic Brains
Electric Computing
Foundation of electric computing was laid early !
Mechanical computers were not considered practical!
Electricity is widespread!
Threat of war is looming in the 1930sGovernments turn to computing for ballistic computations and code-breaking
Although electricity had entered the equation, it had done so only as an alternative method of powering mechanical equipment
Source: Engines that Move Markets
The Prevailing Technology Trap
Early Work
P2 max (V0[:8.0],V1[:8.0]) => R0[:8.0] V0[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] (Z1[:8.0] < V1[:8.0]) -> V1[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] Z1[:8.0] => R0[:8.0] END
Source: Konrad Zuse
Konrad Zuse (1910-1995) German Engineer Built primitive machines, Z1-Z4 based on relay switches in 1936 – 1944 !
Used binary system Designed his own language, Plankalkül !
Never received any official support from war-time Germany unlike the Allies
Bletchley Park
Location of top-secret code-breaking team Code-breaking the German coding machine ENIGMA
Alan Turing
Source: Alan Turing, COLOSSUS, Enigma
English mathematician, logician, and cryptographer !
Headed the team at Bletchley Park Worked on the algorithms to break the ENIGMA code !
Bombe Computer based on heuristics !
Lead to COLOSSUS – one of the firstelectronic computer !
Publishes paper in 1936: On Computable Numbers
War Machines
Source: COLOSSUS
COLOSSUS!!
Built in England’s Bletchley Park and used by British code breakers to read encrypted German ENIGMA messages during World War II !
Designed by Alan Turing !
Winston Churchill specifically ordered the destruction of most of the Colossus machines into 'pieces no bigger than a man's hand‘
War Machines
Source: EINIAC
ENIAC!!
Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer !
Built by the U.S. Army for the purpose of calculating ballistic firing tables Used 18.000 vacuum tubes !
Designed by John Mauchly and J. Presper Eckert!!
The machine was unveiled in 1946 and was in operation until 1955
John von Neumann
John von Neumann, Von Neumann architecture
Hungarian mathematician !
Worked on the Manhattan project and became involved in Moore’s School ENIAC and EDVAC projects !
Publishes paper - or a memo, On computer design, 1945 !
Came to be know as Von Neumann architecture
Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Post-war Computers
Based on Vacuum Tubes
UNIVAC I
Source: Model of UNIVAC I, c. 1954. Picture from Smithsonian Institution
Source: UNIVAC I
Commercial Computer!
5,200 vacuum tubes, weighed 13 tons, consumed 125 kW, and could perform about 1,905 operations per second running on a 2.25 MHz clock!
Occupied more than 35.5 m²of floor space!
The addition time was 525 microseconds
Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Transistor Era
Transistor was invented by William Shockley, John Bardeen and Walter Brattain in 1948
Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
TransistorDevice use to amplify or switch electronic signals !
Huge performance improvement Smaller Less energy More robust Faster
Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Computers becamefaster, larger and more powerful
Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Tyranny of Numbers
Source: Tyranny of Numbers, Transistor Computer
Computer Engineers have much more flexibility with transistors !
Problem was that as the number of components increased, wiring them together became a problem
The Integrated circuit
Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The Invention of the Integrated Circuit
Source: Integrated circuit
Introduced in 1958 by two inventors !
Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor and Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments !
Transistors could be wired together in practical way !
Mass manufacturing of ICs
Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Adjacent Possible
Two inventors at the same time invented the IC
Competition EmergesThe Computer Market is born
The main application is data processing• Business applications like Payroll, inventory and so on
!
IBM enters the computer businessTomas Watson, Jr. launchedIBM System/360 in 1964!
Systematically replaced data processing machineswith mainframe computers
In the 1950s Automation Starts
AutomationAutomation – Computers begin to disrupt !
Start to replace jobs !
Banks and insurance companies were early adopters !
Handling paycheques, payroll that used to require many clerks to compute
Automation
Source: Desk Set (from IMDB)
Hollywood took notice !
Desk Set from 1957 with Spencer Tracey and Katherine Hepburn
From Mainframes to Personal Computers
Think About This!
Resources, Processes and Values Theory
The Disruptive Innovation Theory
Computers in the 1970s
Mainframes
IBM 704
IBM System/360
Large computers in data centers!
Batch operationsCritical applicationsFinancial transaction processing!
Centralisation
Time-sharingComputers were expensive to purchase and maintain!
To make it efficient required multiple usersLarge data centers!
Utility Computing!
Time-sharing of expensive equipment
Moore’s LawCost of computers went down
MinicomputersCost for new entrants in the computer business was prohibitive in the 60s !
Market for those that did not need complete solution but could benefit from using computes !
Birth of the Minicomputers !
Two major client groups: academic community and the military
MinicomputersDigital Equipment Corporation!!
Founded in 1957 by Ken Olsen Launched PDP-1 in 1960 !
The PDP-8 was the first successful commercial minicomputer – 1965 !
Used integrated circuits !
Time-sharing allowed multiple users to use the machines at the same time
The DisruptiveInnovation Theory
Digital used relatively simple, convenient, low-cost innovation to create growth and disrupt IBM
RPVIBM Was a mainframe company, their customers wanted mainframes, not low-performance mini computers
SOFTWARE
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