net zero challenges and opportunities...net zero challenges and opportunities: the role of modeling...
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Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Net Zero Challenges and Opportunities:
The Role of Modeling in Net Zero Installation Planning
ERDC/CERL, Champaign, IL
Dr. Mike Case
michael.p.case@usace.army.mil
Army Net Zero Installation Workshop
18-20 Jan 2012
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
What is a model?
• Simplified representation intended to explain workings of real world system – Back of envelope – Spreadsheet – Supercomputer
• “A scientific theory should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.” – Albert Einstein – often interpreted as
a criticism of over-simplified models of nature.
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Opinions Vary
• “… lies, damn lies, and models.” – With apologies to Samuel Clemens
• “… essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.” – George Box
Take away – work with experienced teams who know the strengths and weaknesses of the models they use.
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Decision Analytic Framework
• What do you need to succeed? – List of coordinated, phased projects
• Master plan, roadmap – Performance, cost/benefit analysis, life cycle cost. – Risks – Stakeholders
• Don’t forget the qualitative criteria!
– Communications (MARKETING) – Resourcing Strategies
Alternatives Electric Site
[MWhr] Nat Gas Site
[MWhr] Total Site [MWhr] % Savings
Site Total Source Fuel [MWhr]
% Savings Source
Base Case 37,960 32,166 70,126 160,561
CHP Engines 0 67,222 67,222 4% 70,583 56%
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Why use models? (continued)
• How can models be useful for NZI planning? – Description
• (e.g., estimate building loads) – Prediction
• (e.g., predict performance of Measure) – Optimization
• (e.g., select best solution(s))
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
• Energy Plan • Projects • Sequence • Schedule • Costs • Risk •DD1391
NZI-E Optimization Process
1 Setup
Site Data
2 Optimize Building
Energy Efficiency Measures
(EEMS)
3 Optimize
District/Cluster Solutions
4 Support Net Zero Planning
with Justification & Documentation
• Building • Geography • Utilities • Cost Data • Water Facility
Simulation
Installation Simulation
6
Iterate over
Building EEMS
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
• EW2 Plan • Projects • Sequence • Schedule • Costs • Risk •DD1391
NZI Planning Cycle
1 Setup
Site Data
2 Minimize
loads
3 Optimize
and integrate across Installation
and region
4 Update plans
with Justification & Documentation
• Building • Geography • Utilities • Cost Data • Water • Waste • Greenhouse Gas
Execute, Track, Measure
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Descriptive Model
• NZI Load Estimation • Measured data best • Usually need to estimate using models • EnergyPlus, FEDS, DOE2/eQuest, Water
Balance, SWARS,etc. • Make sure model handles resolution
required (e.g., 8760 hours)
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Inventory/Classify Building Types
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Run baseline to determine loads/flows
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Review/Calibrate Baseline
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Review Load Profiles
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Predictive Model
• Model Measures to be applied
• Energy, Water, Waste
• Best Practices, Technology, Behavior COF
TEMF
UEPH
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Review Measures to be Modeled
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Simulation Predicts Performance & Cost
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Compare Alternatives - Decision Criteria
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Supporting Graphics
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Supporting Data For Decision Criteria
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Optimization
• Best Measures • Sizes • Operation Strategies • Lowest Cost • Models –
• NZI Optimization Tool, POLIS, REO, FEDS, MODEST, MSW (Solid Waste), DSS (Water)
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
NZI Optimization Tool • Installation/Regional • Regionally appropriate measures/technology • Optimizes clusters • Cluster level demands can include heating,
cooling, electric, critical electric, water, waste, etc.
• Developed by United Technologies under contract to Army
• Prototyped at Ft. Carson, Ft. Bragg, Ft. Sill • Currently being applied to USMA
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Define System and Options
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Apply Optimization Approach
• Apply optimization model • Linear Programming
commonly used – Scalable – Accurate enough for first cut – 8760 hours (1 year) common
• Limitations – Non-linearities – Highly coupled systems
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Reporting
Plan
What’s behind the NZI Optimization Tool
24
Formulate Optimization Problem Find Integrated Solutions
PV1
PV2
ES
DCB
CV
ACB
WT
EH
B1
B2
HX
EC
ABC
ORC
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
AC - supply:
Grid
AC - consume
Heating
Natural gas
Heating
Natural gas
Heating
Waste heat
Heating
Cooling
Waste heat
Cooling
Waste heat Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
DC - supply
DC - supply
DC - supply
DC - consume DC - consume: conversion
DC - supply: conversion AC - supply: conversion
AC - consume: conversion AC - consumeAC - consume
AC - supply
Waste heatWaste heat
Waste heat Waste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
Low Fidelity Device & Flow
Model
Weather Data
Load Profiles
Automatic Code Generation
Economic Information
CPLEX
Solver
‘N’ Promising Configurations
“Superstructure” Feasible
Equipment Configurations ACB
B1
HX
EC
ABC
ORC
MT
MT
MT
MT
AC - supply: Grid
AC - consume
Natural gas
Heating
Waste heat
Heating
Cooling
Waste heat
Cooling
Waste heat Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
AC - consume
Waste heatWaste heat
Waste heat Waste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
ACB
B1
HX
EC
ABC
ORC
MT
MT
MT
MT
AC - supply: Grid
AC - consume
Natural gas
Heating
Waste heat
Heating
Cooling
Waste heat
Cooling
Waste heat Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
AC - consume
Waste heatWaste heat
Waste heat Waste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
ACB
B1
HX
EC
ABC
ORC
MT
MT
MT
MT
AC - supply: Grid
AC - consume
Natural gas
Heating
Waste heat
Heating
Cooling
Waste heat
Cooling
Waste heat Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
AC - consume
Waste heatWaste heat
Waste heat Waste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
ACB
B1
HX
EC
ABC
ORC
MT
MT
MT
MT
AC - supply: Grid
AC - consume
Natural gas
Heating
Waste heat
Heating
Cooling
Waste heat
Cooling
Waste heat Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
Natural gas
Bio gas
AC - consume
Waste heatWaste heat
Waste heat Waste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
AC - supplyWaste heat
Waste heatWaste heat
System Visualization
LinearSystem Model in AMPL
Mixed Integer Linear Programming
Optimization
Min l(x,y) s.t. f(x,y)=0 g(x,y)>=0
Framework developed by United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) under contract to ERDC – Simplified Diagram
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment) Page 25
• Available Now
– NZE- I Energy Master Planning – Facility Modeling and EEM analysis – Clustering analysis using Subject Matter Expert teams
• Virtual NZI-E Testbed
– January 2012 – Building Module – 8 building types and ~ 14 EEM packages available
– August 2012 – Clustering Module – August 2013 – Renewables and Storage Module
• Combined Energy, Water, Waste modeling
– Start rollout of selected water modules this year
25
Capability Schedule
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
Conclusion
• People matter • Real world
experience counts • Know the question • Use experienced
modelers • Know and question
assumptions • Peer review results
Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)
michael.p.case@usace.army.mil
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