navigating the lull in the commodities bull market www ...€¦ · companies have experienced...
Post on 23-Aug-2020
0 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Hard Assets Las Vegas September 2008Hard Assets Las Vegas September 2008Las Vegas, USA
September 9, 2008
Presented by John Kaiser
Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Bull MarketBull MarketBull MarketBull MarketBull MarketBull MarketBull MarketBull Market
www.KaiserBottomFish.comwww.KaiserBottomFish.comwww.KaiserBottomFish.comwww.KaiserBottomFish.com
Financial Services BubbleFinancial Services BubbleFinancial Services BubbleFinancial Services BubbleFinancial Services BubbleFinancial Services BubbleFinancial Services BubbleFinancial Services Bubble
(adjusted for splits and rollbacks)
IMF estimates losses from nonIMF estimates losses from non--government debt will reach $1 trillion!government debt will reach $1 trillion!
Bear Stearns
CountrywideCitigroup
Merrill Lynch
The Wall of WorryThe Wall of Worry! Securitized Mortgage Paper! Subprime Defaults! Asset Backed Commercial Paper! Liquidity Crunch! Foreclosure! Real Estate Collapse! Reverse Wealth Effect! Bankruptcy! Globalization! OECD Deindustrialization! Energy Costs & Peak Oil! Derivative Pyramid Collapse ! Collapsing US Dollar ! Stock Market Collapse! Minneapolis Bridge Collapse
! McCain/Pallin White House! Iraqi Quagmire! Pakistan and Iran! Osama bin Laden! Implosion of China! Resurgence of Russia! Creationism! Pandemic! Global Warming! Food Price Inflation! Satellite Orbit Demolition! Aging Boomer Bubble! Health Cost Inflation! Depression! Asteroid Collision
Did I miss anything else that could go wrong?Did I miss anything else that could go wrong?
Fannie Mae
The China PriceThe China Price! Cheap Labor – urbanization of rural China and the
dismantlement of state run enterprises
! No Health & Safety for Workers
! No environmental emission controls
! No Unions to secure medical or pension benefits
! US Dollar Peg: the devil’s bargain of maintaining an undervalued yuan by bankrolling the US trade deficit through the accumulation of US treasury debt
! Piracy and Counterfeiting
! FDI: foreign direct investment and technology transfer
Made in China and Packed with Pride in America
ApocalypseApocalypseNow?Now?
! Beware the fragmentation of commodity supply channels as strategic value backed by sovereign wealth becomes an important part of acquisition and production decisions.
! Beware China’s ability to simultaneously bankroll infrastructure in a third world country and secure mine development rights.
! Beware the destruction of the American eyes in the sky and the enfeeblement of US military technology.
! Beware a future where the US dollar no longer serves as the benchmark for discovering the price of everything, a future where it becomes impossible to monetarily cost project economics.
New New GeoPolitical RealitiesGeoPolitical Realities for the 21for the 21stst CenturyCentury
! Higher Capital Costs! Higher Energy Costs! Personnel Shortages! Water & Power
Shortages! Labor Disruptions! Grade Flexing Errors! Permitting Delays! NGO Opposition! Government Revenue
Grab! Commodity Price
Uncertainty
Why do we think these costs will never go down but metal prices will?
Commodity Bubble?Commodity Bubble?(adjusted for splits and rollbacks)
Rio TintoBHP Billiton
Is the War on Commodity Prices Is the War on Commodity Prices Wall StreetWall Street’’s preparation for a s preparation for a commodity mania to come? commodity mania to come?
Green Economy & Infrastructure Renewal BoomGreen Economy & Infrastructure Renewal Boom
Watch the November Elections!
ASCE estimates $1.6 trillion needed over next 5 years just for
infrastructure maintenance!
! Watch footprint consciousness driven by climate change and the environmental impact of the Rise of Asia change the way people consume, helped along by the end of consumer debt.
! Watch for a capital spending boom based on “transformative infrastructure renewal” in the US that keeps Americans busy while China transitions to a self-sustaining economy
! Watch the growing Silicon Valley venture capital boom in green technology
! Watch for manufacturing to return to the OECD in a highly automated form
! Watch raw material and energy prices never go back to the bear market levels of 5 years ago
! Watch for a US foreign policy that reflects the end of American hegemony
The bull market since 2003 has been driven by specialized The bull market since 2003 has been driven by specialized institutions and sophisticated investors. institutions and sophisticated investors.
Wall Street and the retail mainstream missed the boat!Wall Street and the retail mainstream missed the boat!
! $30 billion raised through TSXV private placements at $0.54 per share average since Jan 2003
! 55 billion new shares created through TSXV private placements
! 156 billion shares have traded on TSXV at an average $0.79 for a total value of $123 billion since Jan 2003
! Companies have experienced management teams, are cashed up, and have projects with ounces or pounds in the ground that in many cases are robust if you plug in today’s metal prices
! No scandals have betrayed the public trust as Bre-X did in 1997
! We have a bona fide world class Cinderella story in the form of Aurelian and its 14 million oz gold discovery
And yet the juniors are trading as if a repeat of And yet the juniors are trading as if a repeat of 19971997--2002 or worse lies ahead!2002 or worse lies ahead!
Primary Nickel Companies - Top 20(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
$0
$1,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$7,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000Li
onO
reD
ynat
ecC
anic
oM
irabe
laN
oron
tSc
andi
navi
anW
eda
Bay
Star
field
Geo
vic
Cdn
Gob
imin
Cro
wfli
ght
Asi
anVi
ctor
yB
rillia
ntIn
tl N
icke
lLi
bert
yM
indo
roFi
rst N
icke
lH
ard
Cre
ek
Mar
ket C
apita
lizat
ion
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
Net l
bs C
oppe
r
Market Capitalization Net lbs Nickel
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC September 4, 2008
Primary Nickel Companies - Top 20 by Pounds(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,0005,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000W
eda
Bay
Can
ico
Har
d C
reek
Vict
ory
Nic
kel
Lion
Ore
Scan
dina
vian
Min
eral
s
Mira
bela
Kol
a
Dyn
atec
Star
field
Intl
Nic
kel V
entu
res
Gob
imin
Geo
vic
Cdn
Roy
altie
s
Inde
pend
ent N
icke
lN
orth
ern
Plat
inum
Cor
onat
ion
Nor
ont
Mus
tang
Cro
wfli
ght
Net l
bs N
icke
l
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$/lb
Ni
Net lbs Nickel Mkt Cap per lb Nickel
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC September 5, 2008
Primary Copper Companies - Top 20(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
$0
$1,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000Iv
anho
eFi
rst Q
uant
umIn
met
Nor
ther
n O
rion
Tenk
eN
ew G
old
Lund
in M
inin
gQ
uadr
aK
atan
gaPe
ru C
oppe
rN
ovag
old
Met
allic
aA
ura
Min
eral
sA
ugus
taG
loba
l Cop
per
Nor
ther
n Pe
ruPe
taqu
illa
Cop
per
Anv
ilTa
seko
Nor
thga
te
Mar
ket C
apita
lizat
ion
0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
Net l
bs C
oppe
r
Market Capitalization Net lbs Copper
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC September 5, 2008
Primary Copper Companies - Top 20 by Pounds(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000Iv
anho
eC
orrie
nte
Peru
Cop
per
Qua
dra
Nor
ther
n O
rion
TEA
LLu
ndin
Min
ing
Firs
t Qua
ntum
Kat
anga
Tase
koG
loba
l Cop
per
Nor
ther
n Pe
ruIn
met
Can
dent
eN
ovag
old
Impe
rial M
etal
sA
ugus
taM
etal
lica
Reg
alito
Tenk
e
Net l
bs C
oppe
r
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$/lb
Cu
Net lbs Copper Mkt Cap per lb
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC
September 5, 2008
Primary Copper Companies - Top 21-40 by Pounds(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000Ty
ler
Min
era
And
esM
aren
goLo
s A
ndes
Cha
riot
Baj
a
Nor
sem
ont
Sura
min
aC
oro
Anv
ilN
ew G
old
Far W
est
Entr
ee G
old
Aba
cus
Ant
ares
Inca
Pac
ific
Cop
per M
tnPe
taqu
illa
Cop
per
Nor
thga
te
Man
tra
Net l
bs C
oppe
r
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$0.45
$/lb
Cu
Net lbs Copper Mkt Cap per lb
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC September 5, 2008
Primary Copper Companies - Top 41-60 by Pounds(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000Pa
cific
Boo
ker
IMA
Bel
lhav
en
Afr
ican
Cop
per
Aur
a M
iner
als
Red
haw
k
Cap
ston
eIn
tl En
exco
Min
es M
gmt
Con
stel
latio
n
bcM
etal
sSh
erw
ood
Selk
irkC
ente
nario
Stin
gray
Expl
orat
orC
ontin
enta
l Mnr
ls
Shef
field
Car
path
ian
Gol
dmin
co
Net
lbs
Cop
per
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$/lb
Cu
Net lbs Copper Mkt Cap per lb
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC September 5, 2008
Primary Copper Companies - Top 61-80 by Pounds(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
900,000,000
1,000,000,000G
lobe
star
ICS
Cop
per
And
over
Ast
ron
Cad
an
Sunr
idge
Get
ty C
oppe
r
Apo
quin
doIn
tl B
aryt
ex
Nor
dR
ambl
er
Phile
xEu
rom
ax
Ace
ro-M
artin
Min
to
Skee
naTi
ger
New
strik
eC
oppe
r Can
yon
Bel
l Cop
per
Net
lbs
Cop
per
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$/lb
Cu
Net lbs Copper Mkt Cap per lb
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC
September 5, 2008
Primary Zinc Companies - Top 20 by Pounds(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
45,000,000,000Se
lwyn
Euro
zinc
Wes
tern
Silv
er
Bre
akw
ater
Wol
fden
Zazu
Man
tleSt
rate
gic
Res
ourc
eLi
thic
Zinc
ore
Lydi
anA
lmad
enM
anic
ouag
anSl
amM
etco
Vena
Net l
bs Z
inc
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$/lb
Zn
Net lbs Zinc Mkt Cap per lb Zinc
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC September 5, 2008
Primary Molybdenum Companies - Top 20 by Pounds(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000G
ener
al M
oly
Mos
quito
Thom
pson
Cre
ek
Mol
y M
ines
Erde
neM
erca
tor
Tena
jon
TTM
Bol
ero
Tint
ina
B2G
old
Virg
in M
etal
s
Ada
nac
Intl
PBX
Cre
ston
Mol
yTo
rch
Riv
erC
olum
bia
Yuko
n
Meg
a M
oly
Roc
a
Nan
ika
Net l
bs M
olyb
denu
m
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$/lb
Mo
Net lbs Molybdenum Mkt Cap per lb Mo
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC September 5, 2008
! No fuel transportation cost
! No carbon emissions
! Secure electricity supply
! Long term contracts being written at $95/lb
Nuclear Energy & UraniumNuclear Energy & Uranium
Primary Gold Companies - Top 20 by Market Cap(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
$0
$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$3,000,000,000El
dora
doIA
MG
OLD
Mira
mar
Gam
mon
Lak
eD
eser
t Sun
Red
Bac
kC
ente
rra
Vice
roy
Aur
elia
nA
rizon
a St
arC
umbe
rland
Euro
pean
Gol
dfie
lds
Ala
mos
Det
our G
old
Seab
ridge
Osi
sko
Mex
gold
Gre
at B
asin
Bol
ivar
Gab
riel
Mar
ket C
apita
lizat
ion
$0$50$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450
$/oz
Gol
d
Market Capitalization Rock Value $/t Mkt Cap per Oz
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC September 4, 2008
Primary Gold Companies - Top 20 by Ounces(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000IA
MG
OLD
Cry
stal
lex
Seab
ridge
Che
sape
ake
Am
eric
an G
old
Eldo
rado
Det
our G
old
Mot
o G
oldm
ines
Ariz
ona
Star
Cen
terr
a
Vist
a G
old
Aur
elia
n
Gre
ysta
r
Gab
riel
Rus
oro
Gol
d R
eser
ve
And
ina
Mira
mar
Osi
sko
Gre
at B
asin
Net O
z G
old
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$/oz
Gol
d
Net Oz Gold Rock Value $/t Mkt Cap per Oz
Copyright 2008 CanspecResearch LLC September 4, 2008
Primary Gold-Silver Companies - Top 20 by Ounces(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000C
hesa
peak
e
Am
eric
an G
old
IAM
GO
LD
Cry
stal
lex
Seab
ridge
Eldo
rado
Det
our G
old
Mot
o G
oldm
ines
Gre
ysta
r
Vist
a G
old
Cen
terr
a
Aur
elia
n
Gab
riel
Rus
oro
Gam
mon
Lak
e
Gol
d R
eser
ve
And
ina
Hig
h R
iver
Osi
sko
Intl
Min
eral
s
Net o
z G
old
Equi
v
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$/t o
r $/o
z Au
Eq
Net oz Gold Equiv Rock Value $/t Mkt Cap per oz Gold Eq
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research
LLCSeptember 5, 2008
Primary Gold-Silver Companies - Top 21-40 by Ounces(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000G
reat
Bas
in
Ban
ro
Mun
doro
Oce
anaG
old
Cre
w
Red
Bac
k
Dyn
asty
Met
als
Ana
tolia
Ore
zone
Jins
han
SEM
AFO
Gol
den
Star
Min
efin
ders
Ala
mos
Aur
izon
Cen
tury
Met
allic
Clif
ton
Star
GB
S
Wes
tern
Gol
dfie
lds
Net
oz
Gol
d E
quiv
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$/t o
r $/o
z Au
Eq
Net oz Gold Equiv Rock Value $/t Mkt Cap per oz Gold Eq
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research
LLCSeptember 5, 2008
Primary Gold-Silver Companies - Top 41-60 by Ounces(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
500,000
1,000,0001,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,0003,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Palm
arej
o
Mid
way
Rai
ny R
iver
Gol
den
Que
en
Intl
Tow
er H
ill
Axm
in
Yuko
n-N
evad
a
Mex
gold
Rom
arco
Euro
pean
Gol
dfie
lds
Col
ombi
a G
oldf
ield
s
Stra
taG
old
And
ean
Res
ourc
es
Fron
teer
Com
aple
x
Apo
llo G
old
Bre
tt
Jagu
ar M
inin
g
St. A
ndre
w
Gry
phon
Gol
d
Net o
z G
old
Equ
iv
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$/t o
r $/
oz A
u Eq
Net oz Gold Equiv Rock Value $/t Mkt Cap per oz Gold Eq
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research
LLC September 5, 2008
Primary Gold-Silver Companies - Top 61-80 by Ounces(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000D
ioro
Intr
epid
Alh
ambr
a
Med
iterr
anea
n
Vere
naA
ustr
alia
nSo
lom
ons
Man
sfie
ld
Skyg
old
Cor
ner B
ay
Cas
tle G
old
Paci
fic R
im
Etru
scan
Kim
ber
Buf
falo
Gol
d
US
Gol
dM
iner
alD
epos
itsA
cadi
an
Tyhe
e
Pedi
men
t
Infin
ito
Net o
z G
old
Equi
v
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$/t o
r $/o
z Au
Eq
Net oz Gold Equiv Rock Value $/t Mkt Cap per oz Gold Eq
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research LLC September 5, 2008
Primary Gold-Silver Companies - Top 81-100 by Ounces(Red - Companies taken over or merged, Orange - takeover pending)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000G
old-
Ore
Fron
tier P
acifi
c
Man
o R
iver
Mos
s La
ke
Peta
quill
a M
nrls
Haw
thor
ne
Luna
Gol
d
Can
arc
Exet
er
Roy
al S
tand
ard
Gat
eway
Am
arill
o
Trad
e W
inds
Gol
den
Ban
d
Kirk
land
Lak
e
Lake
Sho
re
La M
anch
a
Klo
ndex
Cap
ital G
old
Emgo
ld
Net
oz
Gol
d E
quiv
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$/t o
r $/
oz A
u E
q
Net oz Gold Equiv Rock Value $/t Mkt Cap per oz Gold Eq
Copyright 2008 Canspec Research
LLCSeptember 5, 2008
Thank Thank YouYou
www.KaiserBottomfish.comwww.KaiserBottomfish.com
top related