national blend of global models an overview jeff waldstreicher noaa/nws eastern region hq bohemia,...

National Blend of Global Models

An Overview

Jeff WaldstreicherNOAA/NWS Eastern Region HQ

Bohemia, NY

15th Northeast Regional Operational WorkshopNovember 12-13, 2014 – Albany, NY

REASONING

FUNDING

Origins of the National Model Blend

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Sandy Supplemental JPSS Gap Mitigation: projects that make better use of existing model data

Local / Regional Model Blend Initiatives

WRN Roadmap NAPA Report

Early Roots in Regional Blends

• Improvements in verification and consistency scores for the NWS National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

• Operational Efficiencies

BUT…• Sustainability of the regional solution?• Consistency between regional approaches and

national centers?• Model data dissemination limitations?

Early Roots in Regional Blends

Need a national system: – Harness full capabilities of NWP systems and national

computing power– Full suite of ensembles– Employ state of the art statistical post processing

techniques• Downscaling• Bias Correction

– Enable enhanced consistency within NWS forecast information

National Blend of Models

National Model Blender Project

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Develop a set of next-generation foundational

gridded guidance products for NDFD weather

elements based on NWS and non-NWS model

information.GFS

GFS ENSEMBLES

ECWMFCMC

CMC ENSEMBLES

ECWMF E

NSEMBLES

FNMOC

NDFD

National Model Blender Project Objective

Improve quality and consistency of the NWS National Digital Forecast Database

Improve operational efficiency

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Current NWS Forecaster

6-8 hrs. of manual grid manipulation

Leverage skill of guidance to assist with freeing up time to focus on DSS and hazardous weather operations

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NDFD ElementsNDFD Elements No. of Grids Projections 12-hour Probability of Precipitation (PoP12) 13-15 Every 12 hours, out to 168 hoursApparent Temperature 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;

every 6 hours out to 168 hoursDew Point 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;

every 6 hours out to 168 hoursHazards 59-82 Every hour, out to 72 hours;

every 6 hours out to 120 hoursMaximum Temperature 7-8 Every 24 hours, out to 168 hoursMinimum Temperature 6-7 Every 24 hours, out to 168 hoursQuantitative Precipitation Amount 9-13 Every 6 hours out to 72 hoursRelative Humidity 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;

every 6 hours out to 168 hours

Significant Wave Height 17-21 Every 6 hours out to 120 hoursSky Cover 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;

every 6 hours out to 168 hoursSnow Amount 5-9 Every 6 hours out to 48 hoursTemperature 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;

every 6 hours out to 168 hoursWeather 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;

every 6 hours out to 168 hoursWind Direction 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;

every 6 hours out to 168 hoursWind Gust 17-25 Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursWind Speed 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;

every 6 hours out to 168 hours

The National Blend Project

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GFS

NAEFSECWMF

CMC

ECW

MF

ENSE

MBL

ES

Create a NWS methodology for a national blend (“best”) product, beginning with the Day 3 - 8 time frame (Phase I)

Extensible to a full set of NWS deterministic and probabilistic products covering days 1-10 (Phase II).

National Blend Project – Phase I

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•Max/Min Temperature•3-hr Temp and Dewpoint•Wind speed and direction•Sky Cover•PoP•Precipitation Type•QPF

Gridded Guidance Products:

Focus on Days 3- 8, so initial development efforts are concentrated on global deterministic and ensemble systems

National Blend Project – Phase II

Additional Elements:•Snowfall Amount•Wind Gusts•Predominant Weather•Others as needed**Derive where it makes sense to ensure consistency, efficiency: i.e. Relative Humidity, Apparent Temperature

Expansion to Days 1-10•Non-global NWP systems (e.g., NAM, SREF)

Development of a suite of probabilistic guidance 10

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The National Blend Plan

WPC

WeatherForecastOffices

The National Blend will be distributed twice daily.

WPC will provide oversight of the National Blend for Days 3-8 to maintain meteorological and spatial consistency.

WFO’s will receive both objective and WPC (edited) grids.

8 Sub-Projects Funded from Sandy Supplemental ~$2.2 million

• Lead efforts of post-processing team, contribute GEFS Reforecast data sets, contribute to PoP/QPF development and new blending approaches, participate in evaluation (Hamill; OAR/ESRL/PSD)

• Advanced MOS statistical post-processing techniques for calibration of NDFD variables and blending of model output (Gilbert; OST/MDL)

• Expand NAEFS post-processing (Zhu; NCEP/EMC)

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Sub-Projects Funded from Sandy Supplemental ~$2.2 million

• Accelerate URMA/RTMA improvements for use as “Analysis of Record” in model blender (DiMego/Pondeca; NCEP/EMC)

• Perform grid-to-grid and grid-to-point verifications (Ruth; OST/MDL)

• Data management and visualization tools to improve collaboration (Gilbert; OST/MDL)

• Transition NCEP’s WPC blending and ensemble visualization capability to AWIPS II for the NCEP Perspective (Mainelli; NCEP/NCO)

• Training (Mostek/Bua; COMET)

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Consistency - NWS Standard TerrainDifferent terrain used in downscaling systems

(AWIPS D2D display, GFE, RTMA) GFE - RTMA Terrain

All shaded areas represent differences greater than 100m

Example: Gridded MOS 2-m T @ 12 hours, diff > 10oF

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Consistency - NWS Standard Terrain

• Development groups, including those responsible for post-processing and those responsible for the analysis will downscale to the same terrain in use by the WFOs in GFE.

Develop methodology with schedule to merge local edits into a national terrain file

Develop procedures to create a gridded land/water mask for MDL and EMC downscaling applications consistent with the AWIPS terrain file and marine polygons

Scheduled for AWIPS 14.4.1, baselined by June 2015Remaining Question: How do local terrain edits get back

to a national file?

Plenary Group (Regions, NWSEO, NCEP, OST, OCWWS,

SPPO, OAR)

Project Manager

Kathy Gilbert

Project Advisor

Steve Lord

Project Management

Analysis and Verification

(Ruth)

Dissemination(Settelmaier and Gilbert

Post Processing

(Hamill)

Testing and Training

(Novak and Craven)

Working level Teams

Outreach(Sieveking and

Gagan)

Multi-Panel Graphical Interface created by MDL:

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National Blend – Analysis & Verification

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~blend/blender.prototype.php

• Initial evaluations of individual components of the blend• Prototype National Blend grids• Provide feedback to RTMA developers• Provide feedback to Blend developers• Show verification of experimental blends

Coming Soon:• Ability to overlay surface observations • Grid-based and point-based verification statistics for

prototype blends

RTMA/URMA Evaluation

Blend Evaluation

National Blend Project - Evaluation

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• Internal Evaluation through Summer 2015 (Testing and Evaluation Team)

• Formal Evaluation Sept 2015 – Mar 2016• Analysis of Accuracy, Consistency, and

Workload (focused on NDFD, WPC, and National Blend)

WFO input will be key component of evaluation.

National Blend Project - Training

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• Overview of the National Blend• Components of the National Blend• Statistical Techniques & Procedures• National Blend Verification• National Blend Reliability• WPC Procedures

Questions?

…or time for some liquid blends…