napa buildout methodology memo 022421
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M E M O R A N D U M
To: Michael Walker, Senior Planner, City of Napa
From: Rajeev Bhatia, Principal, Brendan Hurley, Planner, and Mayu Tanaka, Planner
Re: 2040 General Plan Buildout Projections
Date: February 24, 2021
Developing buildout projections is a critical step in the general plan update process. Forecasting the growth in population, housing, and employment likely to result from implementation of the 2040 General Plan will inform key planning decisions and serve as the basis for environmental review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). Specifically, the buildout projections will be used to estimate future traffic conditions, pollutant emissions, and planning for parks and infrastructure, that will in turn inform development of policies in the General Plan and quantify potential environmental impacts.
Because most development will be carried out through private initiative rather than directly by the City, the amount and pace of development will be determined largely by market forces, and influenced by land availability, appropriate land use designations and zoning, financial feasibility of development, and City policy related to difficulty or ease of undertaking development. Thus projections 20 years into the future are not a forecast, but rather informed estimates of development likely to result.
This memo summarizes the methodology and assumptions used to develop projections for the City of Napa General Plan Update. It also outlines the purpose and uses of buildout projections and presents the findings of the analysis.
PARAMETERS FOR PROJECTIONS
Cities are rarely, if ever, built out to the maximum capacity allowed under zoning/land use designations. Land supply and availability of appropriately zoned sites is crucial, but development that actually results is tempered by a variety of market forces and interest on part of property owners. For example, a City can zone for a large amount of retail space, but if underlying market demand factors do not support this, it will not get built. The same applies to residential development; for example, City of Napa zoning currently permits mixed-use and multifamily residential as a permitted use in several downtown zones and as a conditional use in most commercial zones; however, many of the designated sites continue to be used exclusively for commercial uses. On these sites, interested owners would need to consider not just the market demand and financial feasibility of multifamily residential development but also how that would compare to continuation of or investments in uses already at the site.
Sites are also often not built to the permitted maximum intensity (floor area ratio) or density (housing units per acre). Construction costs, need for structured parking, and market factors all
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play a role in development that is realized. In many communities in the Bay Area for example, developers see greater profitability in undertaking townhome rather than multifamily housing development, despite the overall shortage of housing that exists.
As such, future projections for the 2040 General Plan (also sometimes referred to as “buildout”) are neither forecasts or predictions, nor estimates of theoretical maximum zoning capacity, but rather represent a reasonably foreseeable estimate of development potential, factoring in the capacity of land in the Planning Area as well as foreseeable market demand. These projections are shown in the form of housing units and population, and non-residential building area and population.
METHODOLOGY
To develop a reasonably foreseeable projection of housing and job growth for the planning period, Dyett & Bhatia conducted a parcel-based analysis that considers existing uses, development potential given environmental and other factors, and market demand. The methodology for the projections is described below.
Opportunity Sites
Building upon findings from the 2019 Existing Conditions Report, information on existing development patterns available from the City, Napa County tax assessor’s data from 2018, and focused windshield surveys were used to identify and underutilized parcels as opportunity sites, or places where change (i.e., new development or redevelopment) is most likely to occur. Underutilized sites were defined as parcels with low to moderate assessed improvements (i.e., buildings) to land value (AV) ratio, floor area ratio (FAR), or both.
A parcel with an AV ratio of less than one may be considered underutilized, and the lower the value of permanent structures on a site relative to land value, the greater the propensity to change, especially if market conditions and zoning regulations allow higher development values to be realized. Floor area ratio (FAR) is a measure of building intensity, defined as the ratio of building floor area to overall site area. A low intensity means that buildings are small in floor area compared to the overall site and therefore have potential for intensification in the future.
Using these criteria and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), approximately 1,500 parcels (about 612 acres) were flagged as opportunity sites. As seen in Figure 1, these parcels are generally along major corridors that correspond with the Focus Areas that were the central concepts explored with the community during prior outreach activities, as well as areas at city edges, including the land in the Napa Pipe area.
Pipeline Projects
A list of pipeline projects, or current major development projects under review, approved, or under construction, was provided by City staff. Project details including any new housing and non-
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residential development were joined to the parcel database. Buildout assumes that all pipeline development will occur during the planning period.
Development Assumptions
New development is the net change in housing and non-residential building area that will occur based on the tier of the opportunity site and changes in land use designation as provided by the Draft General Plan. Opportunity sites were ranked in a tiering system by their existing conditions (i.e., AV ratio, FAR, vacant status, and location) and assigned a development potential, or amount of the parcel that is likely to undergo development during the planning period. This factor was applied to the size of each parcel to determine potential new developable area, as well as the proportion of existing buildings that would be redeveloped. Table 1 summarizes the criteria and development potential that were assigned and Figure 1 maps the opportunity sites.
Table 1: Development Assumptions
Category Criteria Development
Potential
Tier 1 Vacant land 80%
Tier 2 Both Low FAR1 and Low AV Ratio2 50%
Tier 3 Only Low FAR or Low AV Ratio, or both Moderate FAR and Moderate AV Ratio 40%
Tier 4 Only Moderate FAR or Moderate AV Ratio 20%
1. Low FAR is less than 0.2; Moderate FAR is between 0.2 and 0.5.
2. Low AV Ratio is less than 0.4; Moderate AV Ratio is between 0.4 and 0.6.
Dyett & Bhatia, 2021
Land Use Assumptions
Land use classifications based on the Draft General Plan Land Use map (Figure 2) were then applied to each opportunity site. Given that not all parcels within a land use designation will reach the maximum allowed development intensity or residential density, average values were assumed to calculate the amount of new development at each site. For example, the Business Professional designation allows for a maximum residential density of 40.0 dwelling units per acre and a maximum development intensity of 1.20 FAR; the assumed average residential density and non-residential development intensity were set below these thresholds, at 10.0 dwelling units per acre and 0.40 FAR.1 Non-residential development was then further classified by use based on the land use designation in order to translate the associated growth in employment. For instance, all non-residential development in Business Professional sites was assumed to be commercial (e.g., office, retail uses).
1 A non-vacant site would subtract the amount of redeveloped existing building area from its respective existing use
category to yield net new development. This may lead to negative values of net change at some sites.
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Sites with special considerations were calculated separately, including the Downtown Specific Plan Area and other certain locations that may require additional analysis such as the Ghisletta Properties (between Foster Road and Golden Gate Drive, south of Irene M. Snow Elementary School). For opportunity sites within the Downtown Specific Plan Area, development density and intensity were assigned by the respective zoning district of each site (i.e., Downtown I, Downtown II, or Transition). The remaining special sites underwent an exploratory environmental constraints analysis to determine the level of development potential. The resulting calculations for these sites are an estimate based on this analysis and are not a determination of actual capacity or proposed development.
DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY
Table 2 shows existing, pipeline, and new housing units and building area, as well as existing and projected population, jobs, and jobs/employed residents balance. As shown in Table 2, there are approximately 30,700 housing units, 51,200 jobs, and 8.7 million square feet of commercial uses and 8.0 million square feet of industrial uses in the City of Napa. Pipeline development includes 3,200 housing units, 883,000 square feet of commercial uses, and 92,000 square feet of industrial development, and additional new development would provide for approximately 4,000 housing units, 1.4 million square feet of commercial uses, and 1.6 million square feet of industrial development. Buildout of the 2040 General Plan is thus projected to result in a citywide total of 37,900 housing units, 61,900 jobs, 10.9 million square feet of commercial uses, and 9.6 million square feet of industrial uses.
Population Growth
Total population was derived from the number of housing units, based on a household size of 2.66 persons per household, 6.7 percent vacancy rate (vacancy rate as of January 2020), and a group quarters population of 1.6 percent, which translates to roughly 15,900 new residents over the next 20 years. It is noted that this calculation is based on total housing inventory and reflects a citywide average household size. Figure 3 illustrates this relationship between population and housing.
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Figure 3: Housing and Population Growth
Source: California Department of Finance Population and Housing Estimates Tables E-5 (2020) and E-8 (2007, 2012)
Job Growth
The number of jobs in the City of Napa is projected to increase from 51,200 jobs in 2019 to 61,900 jobs in 2040. New jobs were calculated by applying the following employment density factors to new development by land use category:
• 225 square feet per job (s.f./job) for retail
• 250 s.f./job for office
• 1,000 s.f./job for industrial
• 500 s.f./job for institutional
• 500 s.f./job for hotel/other uses
Jobs associated with industry sectors that are not tied to land use, such as construction and transportation, were included by assuming a consistent proportional growth factor.
Jobs/Housing Balance
Jobs/housing balance is more correctly measured as jobs/employed residents’ ratio, where jobs represent the number of jobs in the city and employed residents the number of Napa residents that are employed. A jobs to employed residents’ ratio of 1.0 indicates a perfect balance – that is the number of out-commuters is balanced by the number of in-commuters.
202079,300
204095,700
202030,700
204037,900
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Popu
latio
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City of Napa Population Buildout Population
Existing Housing Units Buildout Housing Units
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As shown in Table 2, the present jobs/employed residents’ ratio in Napa is 1.19, or a housing deficit of approximately 19 percent. General Plan projections show jobs and housing growing at similar rates over the next 20 years; thus the city’s housing deficit would persist. However, the General Plan does allow for additional housing (as well as employment uses) beyond those projected; should the market for residential uses—especially multi-family and housing in mixed-use developments—be larger than projected, greater job/employment residents’ parity could result.
Table 2: Development Projections Summary Existing2 Change3 2040 Total Growth
Residential
Housing Units 30,700 7,200 37,900 23%
Pipeline 3,200
Additional New 4,000
Population 79,300 15,900 95,700 20%
Employed Residents 43,000 9,000 52,000 Non-Residential
Commercial (s.f.) 8,655,000 2,293,000 10,948,000 Pipeline 883,000
Additional New 1,410,000
Industrial (s.f.) 7,979,000 1,662,000 9,641,000 Pipeline 92,000
Additional New 1,570,000
Total 16,634,000 3,955,000 20,589,000 Jobs 51,200 10,700 61,900 21%
Jobs/Housing Balance
Jobs/Employed Residents 1.19 1.19 1. Building area rounded to the nearest 1,000; other values rounded to the nearest 100. Totals may not add up
due to rounding.
2. Existing building area is from CoStar/EPS, Inc. Existing jobs are 2019 estimates from State EDD. Existing housing and population are 2020 estimates by State DoF.
3. Change is the total of additional new development and major development projects that are currently in the pipeline. Additional development is the net value of new development and redevelopment.
CoStar/Economic & Planning Systems, 2019; California Employment Development Department, 2021; California Department of Finance, 2021; Dyett & Bhatia, 2021.
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NAPA COUNTY
NAPACOUNTY
Nap
a River
TrancasStreetCorridor
JeffersonStreetCorridor
Lincoln &Soscol Ave
DowntownCore
Imola &SoscolAve
1st St
Redwood Rd
1stA
ve
Imola Ave
Pueblo Ave
Congress ValleyRd
Coombsvil le Rd
Browns Valley Rd
California Blvd
S Jefferson St
Old Sonoma
Rd
4th
Av eW Imola Ave
Orchard Ave
Wes
tview
Dr
Dry Creek Rd
Soscol Ave
3rd St
Jefferson St
Lincoln AveBig Ranch Rd
Trancas St
Mon
ticell
o Rd
Hagen Rd
Vichy Ave
Silverado Trl
Foot
hill
Blvd
S C
oom
bs S
t
Buhman Ave
Ash St
W Lincoln Ave
Yajome St
Caro l D
r
Laurel St
S Ter
race
Dr
Terr
ace
Dr
Coo
mbs
St
ShurtleffAve
Main St
W Pueblo Ave
Shetler Ave
Salvador Ave
Kilburn Ave
2nd St
Trower Ave
FosterRd
Golde
nG
ate
Dr
Linda Vista Ave
Dri
vew
ay
Mon tecito Blvd
East
Ave
Oak St
Monte Vist aD
r
SF ra nklin
S t
Wine Country Ave
E Spring St
W Park Ave
Muller Dr
Oxford St
Vine Hill Dr
Fran
klin
St
A St
Scenic Dr
Sierra Ave
P artric k Rd
G St
Pine
wood
Dr
Spring StGeorgia St
Beard Rd
Pine St
Kansas Ave
Central Ave
Twin O a ksD
r
F airfax
Dr
Source: City of Napa, 2019; Napa County, 2018; Dyett and Bhatia, 2021
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Feet
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Mile
25Acres
100Acres
Figure 1:Opportunity Sites
NapaValley
College
NapaHigh
School
VintageHigh
SchoolJustin-SienaHigh
School
KennedyPark
AlstonPark
Stanly RanchSouth Wetlands
Open Space
WestwoodHills
TrancasCrossing
SouthJefferson
Park
Opportunity Category
Current Development Project
Tier 1 (80%)
Tier 2 (50%)
Tier 3 (40%)
Tier 4 (20%)
Map Base
City of Napa
Sphere of Influence
2040 General Plan Area
Downtown Area Specific Plan
¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼¼Parks
Napa River
ATTACHMENT 6
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A¾
Aà
DomaineCarneros
SilveradoResort + Spa
NAPA COUNTY
NAPA COUNTY
Nap
a Riv
er
TrancasStreetCorridor
JeffersonStreetCorridor
Lincoln &Soscol Ave
DowntownCore
Imola &SoscolAve
Pueblo Ave
1st St
Redwood Rd
1stA
ve
Imola Ave
Congress ValleyRd
Coombsville Rd
Browns Valley Rd
California Blvd
S Jefferson St
Old Sonoma
Rd
4thA
v eW Imola Ave
Orchard Ave
Wes
tvie
wD
r
Dry Creek Rd
Soscol Ave
3rd St
Jefferson St
Lincoln Ave
Big Ranch Rd
Trancas St
Montic
ello
Rd
Hagen
Rd
Vichy Ave
SilveradoTrl
Foot
hill
Blvd
Buhman Ave
Ash St
W Lincoln Ave
Yajome St
Carol D
r
Laurel St
S Ter
race
Dr
Terr
ace
Dr
Coo
mbs
St
ShurtleffA
ve
Main St
W Pueblo Ave
Shetler Ave
Salvador Ave
Kilburn Ave
2nd St
Trower Ave
FosterRd
Golde
nG
ate
Dr
Linda Vista Ave
Driv
eway
Montecito Blv d
East
Ave
Oak St
MonteVist aD
r
SF
r anklin St
Wine Country Ave
E Spring St
W Park Ave
Muller Dr
Oxford St
Vine Hill D r
Fran
klin
St
A St
Scenic Dr
Sierra Ave
P artric k Rd
G St
Pine
wood
Dr
Spring StGeorgia St
Beard Rd
Pine St
Kansas Ave
Central Ave
Twin OaksD
r
F airfax
Dr
Source: Napa County, 2018; City of Napa, 2021; Dyett and Bhatia, 2021
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Feet
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Mile
25Acres
100Acres
'JHVSF����Draft Land Use Plan
NapaValley
College
NapaHigh
School
VintageHigh
SchoolJustin-SienaHigh
School
KennedyPark
AlstonPark
Stanly RanchSouth Wetlands
Open Space
Map Update:2/12/2021
Map Base
City of Napa
Sphere of Influence
2040 General Plan Area
Napa River
WestwoodHills
TrancasCrossing
SouthJefferson
Park
Focus Areas
Downtown Area Specific Plan
ResidentialVery Low Density Residential
Low Density ResidentialMedium Density Residential
High Density Residential
Traditional Residential
CommercialHospitality Commercial
General Commercial
Business Professional
Mixed-UseResidential Mixed-Use
Corridor Mixed-Use Low
Corridor Mixed-Use High
Napa Pipe Mixed-UseDowntown Specific Plan
Downtown Core Commercial
Downtown Mixed-Use
Downtown NeighborhoodDowntown Public
Oxbow Commercial
Downtown Parks and Open Space
Public-InstitutionalPublic-Serving
AgricultureOpen Space & Parks
GreenbeltIndustrial
Light Industrial
Business Park
ATTACHMENT 6
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