naomi kikoler - th responsibility to protect

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SIMON-SKJODTCENTER FOR THE

PREVENTION OF GENOCIDE

UNITED STATES HOLOCAUST MEMORIAL MUSEUM

Naomi KikolerDeputy Director

What does a history museum about the Holocaust have to do with preventing genocide today?

“A memorial unresponsive to the future would also violate the memory of the past.”

Elie WieselMuseum Founding ChairHolocaust Survivor, and Nobel Laureate

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10Image from USHMM Bearing Witness: Syria

Public

Specific

Best Methods

Early

This

What’s missing?

peace

keep

ing o

perat

ions

sanct

ions

mili

tary

inte

rven

tion

limiti

ng com

munica

tions

const

itutio

nal re

form

livel

ihood in

terv

entio

ns

secu

rity s

ecto

r ref

orm

disarm

amen

t, dem

obiliza

tion, r

einte

grat

ion

civil

socie

ty su

pport

Most policy attention on mass atrocity prevention is focused here.

mass

kill

ing

one yearfive years

Countries ranked among the Top 10; countries most people know about.

Countries identified by the Early Warning Project as medium risk.

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Statistical Risk Assessment

Aggregated Expert Forecasts

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Statistical Risk Assessment: Variables

• exclusionary elite ideology• state-led discrimination

• type of government• institutional stability• recent coup activity

• recent upheaval• regional conflict• domestic civil conflict

• population size• economic growth rate• trade openness• infant mortality• natural resource wealth

Model #2: Elite Threat

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Model #1: Bad Regime

Statistical Risk Assessment

• population size • per capita income• natural resource wealth• economic growth rate • type of government• institutional stability• recent coup activity• domestic civil conflict• regional conflict

• low trade openness• infant mortality • authoritarian rule• regime type• regional conflict• recent upheaval• exclusionary elite ideology• state-led discrimination• prior mass killing

Statistical Risk Assessments: Ensemble Forecasts

Model #3• random forests

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•exclusionary elite ideology•state-led discrimination•international isolation•domestic conflict in country•regional conflict

Bad

Regi

me

Elite

Thr

eat

Rand

om F

ores

ts

Statistical Risk Assessment: Myanmar

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Statistical Risk Assessment

Aggregated Expert Forecasts

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Aggregated Expert Forecasts: Opinion Pool

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Aggregated Expert Forecasts: Output

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www.earlywarningproject.com

anecamp@ushmm.org

ewp@ushmm.org