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The Environmental Scan Study @ Arizona State University West External conditions
Demographic
Economic
Educational
Environmental
Political
Social
Technological
The Environmental Scan Study @ Arizona State University West External
Demographic
Global
The U. S.
Arizona
Metropolitan Phoenix
The university community
The Environmental Scan Study @ Arizona State University West Internal conditions
Planning
Enrollment
Budget
Faculty and staff
Faculty scholarship
Ray’s Learning Project Table of contents:
Introduction to UNI and environmental scanning
Demographics
Economic performance indicators
State support of higher education
Political landscape
UNI and its peer institutions
Environmental Scanning Definition: “A kind of radar to scan the world
systematically and signal the new, the unexpected, the major and the minor" (Brown & Weiner, 1985, p. ix)
Purpose: To enable decision makers to understand the external environment and the interconnections of its various sectors and to translate this understanding into the institution's planning and decision making processes (Aguilar, 1967)
Environmental Scanning Objectives for environmental scanning (Coates,
1985): Detecting scientific, technical, economic, social,
and political trends and events important to the institution
Defining the potential threats, opportunities, or changes for the institution implied by those trends and events
Promoting a future orientation in the thinking of management and staff
Alerting management and staff to trends that are converging, diverging, speeding up, slowing down, or interacting
Demographic Historical data about population, age groups,
gender, and ethnicity as well as population projections and estimates at the national level
Population composition and projections for Iowa and its neighboring states
Iowa’s county rankings in terms of current total population and population increase
49.3%50.7%
Sex Composition 2005
Male Female
Population – United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey
14%
86%
Ethnic Composition 2005
Hispanic Non-Hispanic
Population – United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey
7%
18%
63%
12%
Selected Age Cohorts 2005
Persons Under 5 Persons 6-18 Persons 19-64 Persons 65 and Over
Population – United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey
County Number County Number
Polk 408,888 Cerro Gordo 44,384
Linn 201,853 Warren 43,926
Scott 162,621 Muscatine 42,883
Black Hawk 126,106 Des Moines 40,885
Johnson 118,038 Marshall 39,555
Woodbury 102,972 Webster 38,960
Dubuque 92,384 Jasper 37,409
Pottawattamie 90,218 Lee 36,338
Story 80,145 Wapello 36,010
Dallas 54,525 Marion 32,987
Clinton 49,782 Sioux 32,525
Iowa's Top 22 Counties by Population 2006
Population – Counties of Iowa
Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimate Programs
County % County %
Dallas 33.80 Dubuque 3.63
Madison 10.90 Dickinson 3.04
Polk 9.15 Iowa 2.99
Warren 8.00 Sioux 2.96
Mills 7.20 Marion 2.92
Benton 6.53 Pottawattamie 2.87
Johnson 6.33 Muscatine 2.78
Linn 5.30 Scott 2.49
Washington 4.16 Bremer 2.19
Iowa's Top 18 Counties by % Population Increase 2006
Population – Counties of Iowa
Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimate Programs
Economic Performance Indicators Real GDP growth in current dollars, Iowa and
neighboring states’ ranking in terms of real GDP growth
Personal income growth rate for the United States, Iowa, and its neighboring states
Top ranking Iowa counties in terms of personal income growth
Consumer price index variations Dow Jones industrial index fluctuations Job prospects for the nation, Iowa, and its
neighboring states
0.0%
0.9%
1.8%
2.7%
3.6%
So
uth
Dako
ta
Min
ne
so
ta
Wis
con
sin
Iow
a
Illino
is
Neb
raska
Mis
so
uri
Real GDP Growth Rate 1997 - 2004, 2005
% Growth 97-04 % Growth 2005
GDP – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
So
uth
Dako
ta
Min
ne
so
ta
Wis
con
sin
Iow
a
Illino
is
Neb
raska
Mis
sou
ri
Real GDP Growth Rate Ranking 1997 - 2004, 2005
Growth Rate Ranking 97-04 Growth Rate Ranking 2005
GDP – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
*Iowa ranks the lowest among its neighboring states in real GDP growth in 2005
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
$0
$300
$600
South Dakota
Nebraska Iowa Missouri Wisconsin Minnesota Illinois
Bill
ion
sPersonal Income Growth: Iowa and Its Neighboring States
2006: I - 2007: I
2006: I 2006: II 2006: III 2006: IV 2007: I
Personal Income Growth – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
0
25
50
South Dakota
Iowa Nebraska Wisconsin Minnesota Missouri Illinois
Personal Income Growth Rate Ranking: Iowa and Its Neighboring States 2006: I - 2007: I
ranking
Personal Income Growth – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
*Rankings among the 50 states, where the higher the ranking number, the lower the personal income growth rate is. Therefore, South Dakota and Iowa have very low personal income growth rate.
0
2
4
6
8
10
Polk Linn Dallas Scott Mills Johnson Dickinson Wright Iowa Muscatine
Top 10 Counties in Iowa by Per Capita Personal Income Growth: 2005
Ranking
*Polk County has the fastest personal income growth
Per Capita Personal Income Growth – Iowa
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
0
70
140
210
1983 1986 1996 2006
Selected Consumer Price Index All Urban Consumers US City Average All items 1982 - 1984 = 100
Annual Average
Consumer Price Index – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Compound Annual Rate: 3-Mos Ended, May 07
Unadjusted 12-Mos. Ended May '07
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Percent Changes in CPI for Urban Consumers 3-Mos Ended and12-Mos Ended Special Indices, May 2007
All Items Food Energy All Items Less Than Food and Energy
Consumer Price Index – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Dow Jones Industrial Index2000-2006
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
Start of Year High Close Low Close Year's Close
Stock Market – Dow Jones Industrial Index
Source: Dow Jones Averages Statistics
0% 20% 40% 60%
Home Health Aides
Network Systems and Data …
Medical Assistants
Physician Assistants
Computer Software Engineers, …
Physical Therapist Assistants
Dental Hygienists
Computer Software Engineers, System …
Dental Assistants
Personal and Home Care Aides
10 Occupations with the Fastest Growth Rate: 2004 - 2014
Percent
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment, 2004 - 2014
Pharmacists
Physicians and surgeons
Chiropractors
Optometrists
Veterinarians
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists
Postsecondary teachers
Computer and information scientists, research
Biochemists and biophysicists
Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0% 20% 40% 60%
Network systems & data communications …
Physician assistants (B)
Computer software engineers, applications (B)
Computer software engineers, systems software (B)
Network and computer systems administrators (B)
Database administrators (B)
Physical therapists (M)
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists (D)
Occupational therapists (M)
Postsecondary teachers (D)
10 Fastest Growing Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher 2004 - 2014
Percent
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100
Postsecondary teachers (D)General and operations managers (B)
Elementary school teachers, except special ed (B)Accountants and auditors (B)
Secondary school teachers, except special & voc. …Computer software engineers, applications (B)
Middle school teachers, except special & voc. ed (B)Physicians and surgeons (FP)
Computer systems analysts (B)Lawyers (FP)
Thousands
10 Largest Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher 2004 - 2014
Employment 2004 Job Openings
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Bachelor's Degree Holders,
2004 - 2014
Elementary school teachers, except special education
Accountants and auditors
Computer software engineers, applications
Computer systems analysts
Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Master's Degree Holders, 2004
- 2014
Physical therapists
Clergy
Educational, vocational, and school counselors
Instructional coordinators
Rehabilitation counselors
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Increases in Employment for First Professional Degree Holders,
2004 - 2014
Physicians and surgeons
Lawyers
Pharmacists
Dentists
Chiropractors
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Doctoral Degree Holders,
2004 - 2014
Postsecondary teachers
Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists
Computer and information scientists, research
Biochemists and biophysicists
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Bachelor's or Higher Degree
Holders, Plus Work Experience, 2004 - 2014
General and operations managers
Management analysts
Financial managers
Computer and information systems managers
Sales managers
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Te
xtile
Kn
itting
an
d W
eavin
g
Ma
ch
ine
…
Te
xtile
Win
din
g,
Tw
istin
g, a
nd
D
raw
ing o
ut …
Me
ter R
ea
de
rs,
Utilitie
s
Cre
dit
Au
tho
rize
rs,
Che
cke
rs, …
Ma
il Cle
rks a
nd
M
ail M
ach
ine
O
pe
rato
rs, …
Se
win
g M
ach
ine
O
pe
rato
rs
File
Cle
rks
Te
lep
ho
ne
O
pe
rato
rs
Com
pu
ter
Op
era
tors
Ph
oto
gra
ph
ic
Pro
ce
ssin
g
Ma
ch
ine
…10 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Job Decline by
Percent: 2004 - 2014
Jobs – United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0% 20% 40% 60%
Computer software engineers, applications
Computer software engineers, systems software
Network systems and data communications analysts
Biomedical engineers
Physician assistants
Network and computer systems administrators
Database administrators
Computer systems analysts
Industrial engineers
Vocational education teachers, middle school
Iowa's 10 Fastest Growing Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher 2004 - 2014
Growing Percent
Jobs – Iowa
Source: http://www.acinet.org
Jobs – Iowa
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Elementary school teachers, except special education
Secondary school teachers, except special and …
General and operations managers
Postsecondary teachers
Accountants and auditors
Middle school teachers, except special and vocational …
Computer systems analysts
Financial managers
Insurance sales agents
Medical and health services managers
Iowa's 10 Largest Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher 2004 - 2014
Employment 2004 Job Openings
Source: http://www.acinet.org
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
Farmers and Ranchers
Retail Salespersons
Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-…
Cashiers, except Gaming
Office clerks, General
Registered Nurses
Team Assemblers
Janitors and Cleaners, except Maids …
Waiters and Waitresses
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and …
Iowa's 10 Occupations with the Largest Number of Employment: 2004
Number for 2004
Source: The careeronestop website
Jobs – Iowa
0%
20%
40%
60%
Com
pu
ter
so
ftwa
re
en
gin
ee
rs, …
Com
pu
ter
so
ftwa
re
en
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Hom
e h
ea
lth
aid
es
Ga
min
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ha
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p
ers
on
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nd
b
oo
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ash
iers
Ga
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illan
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o
fficers
an
d …
Netw
ork
syste
ms
an
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ata
co
mm
un
icatio
n…
Psych
iatric
aid
es
Bio
me
dic
al
en
gin
ee
rs
Psych
iatric
te
ch
nic
ian
s
Ga
min
g d
ea
lers
Iowa's 10 Fastest Growing Occupations: 2004 - 2014
Jobs – Iowa
Source: The careeronestop website
Iowa's 10 Fastest Growing Nonfarm Employment: May 06 - May 07
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing
Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Computer and Electronic Product
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods
Transportation and Warehousing
Transportation and Utilities
Construction
Educational Services
Percent
Jobs – Iowa
Source: Iowa Workforce Development
State Support of Higher Education State appropriations to higher education over
different time periods in Iowa and neighboring states
State appropriations as percentages of revenue in Iowa and neighboring states
State appropriations for operating expenses of higher education in Iowa and neighboring states
0%
20%
40%
60%
Iow
a
Mis
sou
ri
Wis
con
sin
Min
ne
so
ta
Illino
is
Ne
bra
ska
So
uth
Dako
ta
Iowa & Neighboring States' 10-Year % Change in State Appropriations for Higher Education 1997 - 2007
% Change
State Appropriations – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers website
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Mis
sou
ri
Iow
a
Illino
is
Wis
con
sin
Min
ne
so
ta
Neb
raska
So
uth
Da
ko
ta
Iowa & Neighboring States' % Change in State Appropriations for Higher Ed between 2000 & 2006
% Change
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers website
State Appropriations – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Illino
is
Neb
raska
Wis
con
sin
Mis
sou
ri
Min
ne
so
ta
Iow
a
So
uth
Dako
ta
Iowa & Neighboring States' State, Local, and Net Tuition Revenue for Higher Education FY 2006
State Source Local Tax Appropriations Net Tuition
Source: Population and tax revenues data from U.S. Census Bureau
State Appropriations – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Political Landscape Data on political representation in the Iowa
legislature: Democrat seats vs. Republican seats in the state house and senate
0
20
40
60
80
20
07
-20
08
20
05
-20
06
20
03
-20
04
20
01
-20
02
19
99
-20
00
19
97
-19
98
19
95
-19
96
Iowa State House of Representatives by Party 1995 - 2008
Republicans Democrats
Political Landscape – Iowa House of Representatives
Source: The Iowa Legislature General Assembly website
UNI and Peer Institutions Carnegie classification (levels of program, size and
setting)
Enrollment
High school graduates
Graduation rates
Scholarship (revenue and financial aid)
Faculty and staff
Institution Name
Carnegie
Classification 2005
University of Northern Iowa (UNI) 13
Northern Arizona University (NAU) 13
California State University-Fresno (Cal State Fresno) 11
Illinois State University (Ill State) 14
Indiana State University (Ind. State) 13
Central Michigan University (Central Mich) 13
University of Minnesota-Duluth (U of Minn Duluth) 10
University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNC Greensboro) 11
Ohio University-Main Campus (Ohio U Main) 14
University of North Texas (U of N Texas) 11
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire (UW Eau Claire) 10
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Carnegie Classifications (Undergrad. Programs)
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
10 Balanced Arts & Sciences/Professions, Some Graduate Existence 11 Balance Arts & Sciences/Professions, High Graduate Existence12 Professions Plus Arts & Sciences, No Graduate Existence 13 Professions Plus Arts & Sciences, Some Graduate Existence14 Professions Plus Arts & Sciences, High Graduate Existence
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Carnegie Classifications (Grad. Programs)
Institution Name
Carnegie
Classification 2005
University of Northern Iowa (UNI) 18
Illinois State University (Ill State) 18
Indiana State University (Ind State) 18
Central Michigan University (Central Mich) 18
Northern Arizona University (NAU) 15
University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNC Greensboro) 15
University of North Texas (U of N Texas) 15
Ohio University-Main Campus (Ohio U Main) 14
California State University-Fresno (Cal State Fresno) 12
University of Minnesota-Duluth (U of Minn Duluth) 8
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire (UW Eau Claire) 4
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
4 Postbacclaureate Comprehensive 8 Postbacclaureate with Some Arts & Sciences, Other Dominant Fields12 Single Doctoral (Education) 14 Comprehensive Doctoral with Medical/Veterinary15 Comprehensive Doctoral (No Medical/Veterinary) 18 Doctoral, Professional Dominant
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Carnegie Classifications (Size & Settings)
Institution Name
Carnegie
Classification 2005
University of Northern Iowa (UNI) 16
Northern Arizona University (NAU) 16
Illinois State University (Ill State) 16
Central Michigan University (Central Mich) 16
University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNC Greensboro) 16
Ohio University-Main Campus (Ohio U Main) 16
California State University-Fresno (Cal State Fresno) 15
University of North Texas (U of N Texas) 15
Indiana State University (Ind State) 13
University of Minnesota-Duluth (U of Minn Duluth) 13
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire (UW Eau Claire) 13
13 Medium Four-Year, Primarily Residential 15 Large Four-Year, Primarily Nonresidential
16 Large Four-Year, Primarily Residential
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
0%
20%
40%
60%
Cal S
tate
Fre
sn
o
Ce
ntra
l Mic
h
UN
C G
ree
nsb
oro
UW
Ea
u C
laire
NA
U
Ind
Sta
te
Ill Sta
te
U o
f N T
exa
s
Oh
io U
Main
U o
f Min
n D
ulu
th
UN
IUNI & Peer Institutions' Student Enrollment 2005
Enrollment of Students Applied Enrollment of Students Admitted
UNI and Its Peer Institutions - Enrollment
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
UNI's Top 10 Sources of Enrollment in Iowa 2002-2006
Fall 2006 Fall 2005 Fall 2004 Fall 2003 Fall 2002
UNI and Its Peer Institutions - UNI’s Sources of Enrollment in Iowa
0
50
100
150
So
uth
Dako
ta
Neb
raska
Iow
a
Mis
sou
ri
Min
ne
so
ta
Wis
con
sin
Illino
is
Th
ou
sa
nd
sIowa & Neighboring States' High School Graduates Projection
2003-04 Proj. 04-05 Proj. 09-10 Proj. 14-15
High School Graduates – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
U o
f N T
exa
s
Ind
Sta
te
U o
f Min
n D
ulu
th
UN
C G
ree
nsb
oro
NA
U
Cal S
tate
Fre
sn
o
Cen
tral M
ich
UW
Ea
u C
laire
UN
I
Ill Sta
te
Oh
io U
Main
UNI & Peer Institutions' Total and White Graduation Rates 2004
Total White
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Graduation Rates
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
NA
U
Cen
tral M
ich
Cal S
tate
Fre
sn
o
U o
f N T
exa
s
U o
f Min
n D
ulu
th
Ind
Sta
te
UW
Ea
u C
laire
UN
I
Ill Sta
te
UN
C G
ree
nsb
oro
Oh
io U
Main
UNI & Peer Institutions' Tenured Faculty 2005
Tenured and on Tenure Track
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Faculty and Staff
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
0%
25%
50%
Ill Sta
te
U o
f N T
exa
s
Ind
Sta
te
Oh
io U
Main
UN
I
Cen
tral M
ich
Cal S
tate
Fre
sn
o
UW
Ea
u C
laire
U o
f Min
n D
ulu
th
UN
C G
ree
nsb
oro
NA
UUNI & Peer Institutions' Instructional and Executive Staff 2005
Instruction Exec/Manag
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Faculty and Staff
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Top 10 UNI Faculty's Bachelors Degree Alma Mater Institutions 2007- 2008
UNI & Its Peer Institutions – UNI Faculty
0
20
40
60
Top 20 Feeder Institutions for UNI Doctoral Degree Holding Faculty 2007- 2008
UNI & Its Peer Institutions – UNI Faculty
$0
$60
$120
$180
Ind
Sta
te
UW
Ea
u C
laire
UN
I
Cal S
tate
Fre
sn
o
UN
C G
ree
nsb
oro
U o
f Min
n D
ulu
th
NA
U
Ill Sta
te
U o
f N T
exa
s
Cen
tral M
ich
Oh
io U
Main
Mill
ion
sUNI & Peer Institutions' Tuition and Fees after Deduction, State Appropriations,
and Total Other Revenues and Additions 2003 - 2004
Tuition and fees, after deducting discounts and allowances
State appropriations
Total other revenues and additions
UNI and Its Peer Institutions - Revenues
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
UW
Ea
u C
laire
U o
f Min
n D
ulu
th
U o
f N T
exa
s
Cen
tral M
ich
Ind
Sta
te
Cal S
tate
Fre
sn
o
UN
I
UN
C G
ree
nsb
oro
NA
U
Oh
io U
Main
Ill Sta
teUNI & Peer Institutions' Average Amount of Institutional Grant Aid
Students Received 2003 - 2004
Average Grant Aid Amount Students Received
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Financial Aid
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
UW
Ea
u C
laire
Ill Sta
te
UN
C G
ree
nsb
oro
U o
f N T
exa
s
Oh
io U
Main
Ind
Sta
te
UN
I
Ca
l Sta
te F
resn
o
Cen
tral M
ich
U o
f Min
n D
ulu
th
NA
UUNI & Peer Institutions' % of Students Receiving Institutional
Grant Aid 2003 - 2004
Percentage of Students Receiving Institutional Grant Aid
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Financial Aid
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
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