mpact assessment systems trade driven , inclusive …...impact assessment systems for trade driven...

IMPACT ASSESSMENT SYSTEMS

FOR TRADE DRIVEN

PRODUCTIVE, INCLUSIVE ASIAN

REGIONAL ECONOMIC

INTEGRATION

Approach(es)

Presented by: Hans-Peter Brunner,

Office of Regional Economic Integration (OREI) ADB, Manila

14 August 2014

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[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area

in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any

judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

HOW ADB CAN HELP

1. Promote regional, evidence-based

dialog

2. Propagate standards and indicators

(e.g. MDGs, IDGs)

3. Promote capacity and commitment to

Information sharing

Modeling and scenario analysis

Impact evaluation

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EMERGING ISSUES AND POSSIBLE

RESPONSE – REGIONAL ECONOMIC

COOPERATION AND INTEGRATION IN ASIA

(NEW 2ND GEN NARRATIVE)

Productivity challenge

Inclusiveness challenge

Volatility challenge (dealing

with imbalances)

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District-level income growth above baseline from full AfT investment package (click to run movie)

INCOME DIFFERENCES (PRODUCTIVITY,

INCLUSIVENESS, DEALING WITH IMBALANCES)

[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area

in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any

judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

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District-income: Income growth above baseline S1, due to S2 investments (click to run movie)

REGIONALLY DISPARATE EFFECTS

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[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area

in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any

judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

FORWARD-LOOKING

Observatory

Variables

Scenario-based simulation

Based on drivers and outcomes

Make decision

!

(Fig. 4.2,4.3,4.4,4.5, Brunner and Prasad,2014)

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policy

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EU CLUSTER OBSERVATORY

Hosted and maintained Center for Strategy and

Competitiveness, Sweden

Ivory Tower, Sweden

Orkestra, Spain

2003 introduced from Michael Porter, Harvard

Initiated in Baltic Sea Region (BSR)

Now covers 404 ‘regions’ – fine grained scale of districts

Source: Eurostat

Statistical institutes

View of Baltic Sea Region www.clusterobservatory.eu

www.clustermapping.us

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GENERAL DATA STRUCTURE

Centralized and standardized

Spatial-based data layers

Multi-administrative levels

country to country

• Population

• Employment

• Wage levels

• GDP

• Consumption

• Land use

• Poverty level

• Transport accessibility and

cost

• Product space

• Productivity

• Trade and value added flows

• Sector cluster location

• R&D expenditure

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Population

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ECONOMIC CORRIDORS DATA CASE

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DATA SOURCES AND DATA GAPS

Sources Yearbooks from statistics agencies

Survey reports from institutions JETRO

Databases from international organizations UN COMTRADE

Geocoded project investment data ADB

Gaps Indicator not available for whole country

Indicators not available for smaller administrative units

Indicators not available for certain years

Different definitions

Different currencies

Languages

Cost of databases

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GREATER MEKONG SUBREGION (GMS)

Cambodia Province

China (Guangxi and

Yunnan) Province

Prefecture

County

Lao PDR Province

Myanmar State/Division

Thailand Changwat

Viet Nam District

Province 11 11

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Process map underlying the design

of the impact assessment system.

Targets (measured by indicators)

Examples: Welfare distribution, Competitiveness, Productivity, Cohesion

Drivers (measured by indicators)

Examples: Quality of infrastructure and human capital, degree of competitiveness, heterogeneity of firm-level productivity, connectedness of knowledge networks

Policy Instruments (improve agent incentive/ trust)

Examples: Investments in innovation and cluster infrastructure and skills, harmonization of regulations,

competition policy

GDP P.C. AND HIGH-SKILLED LABOR

Source: OECD (2011), Regions and Innovation Policy 13

SS-RDTA TEAM: RCI KNOWLEDGE PLATFORM

ON ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY -- KEY ACTIVITIES

(i) Review all existing literature and available regional experiences in Asia and Europe to complement existing knowledge;

(ii) Based on a short historical, comparative study on the emergence and evolution of RCI in Asia (focused on ASEAN) and Europe, evaluate how lessons from the buildup of European knowledge platforms to progress RCI-driven structural reforms may be relevant to Asia’s bottom-up process of RCI;

(iii) Review different RCI knowledge platforms and tools in Asia and those in Europe which may be relevant to Asia to develop best practices designed to reap productivity gains in regionally integrated markets through innovation and related skills development, and maximize resultant welfare benefits;

(iv) Based on dialogue with think tanks in the region and EU policy makers, develop benchmark indicators for RCI knowledge platforms to promote trade driven productivity gains, and

(v) Draft a final publication to serve as a background paper for the 2014 pan Asian RCI roundtable conference in November 2014, to be finalized based on consultations by December 2014.

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REGION-CLUSTER -SECTOR

INTEGRATION TOOL

DYNAMIC PART

Application

Indicators

Policy makers as drivers

STATIC PART

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Model

Engine Data

Frame

REGION-CLUSTER -SECTOR

INTEGRATION TOOL

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Application

Indicators

Model

Engine Data

Frame

Open

community

data

Fiat data

User-

volunteered

data Value-added

variables from

indicators

Data from

model

scenarios

Mapping data to

new domains

(e.g., transport

economic)

DYNAMIC

PART

STATIC PART

Policy makers as drivers

COMMUNITY

PART

INDICATOR SETS

Indicators

Equity, regional cohesion

Access

Efficiency

Environmental

Units

Per capita income and jobs distribution; trade cohesion indicators, labor productivity, competitiveness

Multi (modal)Infrastructure, market access indices; distance to market; geographic network indicators (centrality, density, connectivity)

Travel time and cost matrix; OD matrix, logistics indices;

Environmental attractiveness indicators (tourism, agriculture etc.) ; resource and diversity indicators;

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SUGGESTION

Cooperation between ADB and statistics agencies

overcomes information islands

Automated microdata (firm-level) survey system

Push process – Data collection, processing and model

running

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survey

firm survey

app

Processing,

Model running,

Visualization

Observatory

Gov.

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KEY FUNCTION: PROJECT RESULT

MANAGEMENT

• Visualization of project information on maps

• Checking the detail by clicking balloons

• Distributed registration by staff members with user friendly interface

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ADB GIS Platform

Each project officer

(Staff)

registration Browse

Other staffs

*Also good for Resident missions to see ongoing

projects in each country at a glance.

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SUGGESTION (CONT’D)

Automated microdata survey system

Pull process – stakeholders and public can access

reports and model outputs

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firm survey app

report

government

s Maintain

and

Manage

Observatory

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IMPORTANT LINKS

http://www.adb.org/

http://www.clusterobservatory.eu/index.html

http://www.adb.org/publications/economic-

corridor-development-inclusive-asian-regional-

integration-modeling-approach

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