morgan shearer - lj hooker darwin - housing the territory – an overview and perspective on...

WORLD CLASS FACILITIES

GREAT LIFESTYLE

According to RP Data, Darwin has been the standout performer during the past ten years :

• Property values increased at an average annual rate of 8.8% &

• Up to 60 000 extra people are expected to call the Greater Darwin region home in the next 15 years*

*Source: NT Government Department of Treasury

Source – RP Data

$0.00

$100,000.00

$200,000.00

$300,000.00

$400,000.00

$500,000.00

$600,000.00

$700,000.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Darwin Alice Springs Katherine Tennant Creek

June 2014 Darwin median house price =

AUD$620,795

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Darwin Alice Springs Katherine

June 2014 Darwin median unit price

= AUD$485,000

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3 Bedroom Houses 2 Bedroom Units

Per week in AUD$

June 2014 average weekly rent

House = AUD$663 Unit = AUD$483

Source – RP Data

Source – RP Data

• Nationally, 58% of flats, units and apartments are owned by investors.

• That is quite an amazing statistic, especially when you compare that with detached houses where only 21% are investor owned.

• Across the capital cities the proportions are even higher.

• Darwin tops the list with 70.6% of all units being rented followed by Brisbane where 70.2% of all units are rented.

First Home Buyers • According to ABS statistics, the number of ‘Northern

Territory ; First home buyers - Dwellings financed’ for June 2014 was 59.

• The monthly average since July 1991 is 88, so this places June 2014 at 32 percent below the average.

• However, if we compare June 2014 against June 2013 we find that First Home purchases in June 2014 were almost 23 percent higher than at the same time in the previous year.

• When compared against June 2012 we see that the 2014 numbers are lower by around 10 percent.

• If you go back a decade and compare June 2014 against June 2004 you find that the current numbers were 35 percent lower than in 2004. But that equates to the difference of 59 First Home financed dwellings in June 2014 to 91 in June 2004.

CommSec ‘State of the States’ Report, April 2014: • The Northern Territory remains the

second strongest economy, only just behind Western Australia and is strongest on four indicators.

• The main strengths are economic growth, business investment, unemployment and construction work.

• The Northern Territory also maintains the fastest annual economic growth rate in the nation, up by 11.5 per cent on a year ago, ahead of Queensland with 4.1 per cent and NSW (3.0 per cent).

CommSec ‘State of the States’ Report, April 2014:

UNEMPLOYMENT CONSTRUCTION WORK

• The US$43 billion INPEX LNG project is on-track to produce gas in 2016.

• Over a $1 billion in major mining projects are underway in planning and implementation.

• A $110 million marine supply base has been built to service our LNG interests and mining interests around the region.

• Dozens of other potential LNG & oil projects located to our north plus a range of oil, gas and mining projects to the South of us.

Darwin has so much land to build on...

Or does it?

The following slides are courtesy of

28

Plenty of Development opportunities … right?

What happens when we overlay some zones that are unsuitable for building, or at least very difficult to build residential dwellings on.

Darwin – 2002 Mangrove Plan of

Management

Entire Harbour 80% plus

3% East Arm

(Conservation)

DEPARTMENT OF LANDS, PLANNING AND THE ENVIRONMENT

So after all of that, what is really left to build houses on…..

What do other

experts in the field say about a

housing and land shortage?

In May 2014 HIA Executive Director, Northern Territory, Robert Harding stated: • “There is a marked disparity between the

trajectory of approval activity in the detached home segment and the multi - unit segment.

• Approvals of detached dwellings have now increased for three consecutive months since reaching a cyclical low in December 2013. We expect detached dwelling approvals activity to strengthen through to the middle of the year.

• The multi-unit segment stands in stark contrast where approvals activity is essentially drying up.”

“While the flow of approvals in this part of the market jumps around significantly on a month by month basis, there have now been five consecutive months with no approvals for dwellings in high-rise apartments”.

Source- Robert Harding, HIA

“It is important that policy makers do not interpret any short term easing in rental markets as affirmation that the NT’s housing shortage has been resolved.

With new residential land in Darwin still ranked amongst the most expensive in the country, policy makers must continue to address the supply constraints to take pressure off prices”.

Source- Robert Harding, HIA

• The number of new blocks/dwellings delivered/settled.

• Meeting current demand

• Forward estimates

• Unit/high-rise Infill quickest way – but is it the best way

• Issues with pre-sales requirements

• NTG has control over large tracts of useable land – could it do better in delivering this to market

• Costs associated with getting and developing land

• Building costs

• Alternative building methods

• Taxes and associated costs

With economic and population growth comes the issue of

‘how do we choose to live’…. or will it be chosen for us?

In July 2012 NT Shelter released a report that included figures from the 2011 Census indicating that in the NT housing market social rental housing (public and community housing) stood at 17.3% compared to 5% nationally The demand for social housing needs continues to rise. In April 2012, there were 2,797 applicants on the public housing wait list in urban areas of the NT. In urban centres of the Territory, the stock of government owned and managed public housing was just 5,054 dwellings with an additional 516 community housing dwellings managed by non-government organisations.

• Homeless

• Low income

• Indigenous and Community

• Retired / Elderly

• Essential services workers

• Young families

• Growing middle class

• Wealthy individuals

A presentation by

Morgan Shearer On behalf of the Real Estate Institute of

Northern Territory Inc. (REINT)