monthly s&p report - lorentzen & stemoco as · steel chemical tankers of 38,000 dwt at...
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1
Charter rates are still doing well following an outstanding Q1, which goes some way to ex-plaining the largest Q1 crude NB ordering binge since 2007 (approx. 50 units aframax+ so far). In terms of second hand the biggest piece of news this month is not a standard sale at all – 4x Suezmaxes and 6x Aframaxes were sold at US$245m and US$291m re-spectively (based on broker valuations) by Dryships to an Economou private vehicle. A more conventional deal was the sale of the 1998 built coat-ed Afra “Atlantik” to Greeks for US$12.5m (an increase of near-ly US$4.5m from her purchase price in April 2013).
The recent flurry of activity in Dry has started to slow down as Buyers and Sellers have reached something of an im-passe; Buyers do not want to raise their price ideas to secure tonnage and Sellers do not want to accept the new market values. As such, we have seen many hitherto serious Sellers withdrawing their ships from sale. Recent sales include Unity Pride (81,000 dwt 2011 built HHI) to Embiricos at US$17.7m (incl. TC until 10/2015 at US$7,250/day), Cinzia D’Amato
(75,000 dwt 2008 built Hudong) to Chinese interests at US$11.5m, and Prabhu Sher (81,000 dwt 2011 built HHI) to Greek interests at mid/high US$17m.
Japanese tonnage provider Doun Kisen has reportedly con-tracted two IMO II stainless steel chemical tankers of 38,000 dwt at compatriot ship-yard Kitanihon Zosen. The ves-sels are scheduled for delivery in 2018 from the specialist ship-yard building chemical carriers and LPG carriers. The order comes amidst German owner Sloman Neptun ordering a sec-ond IMO II epoxy coated chemi-cal tanker of 16,500 dwt from Chinese shipyard Jiangzhou Union. A handful of chemical tankers have reportedly changed hands so far in April. The most important involves the 19,900 dwt chemical carrier Maemi built 2008 from Fukuo-ka which reportedly fetched US$23m from clients of Ace Tankers to seller Nordic Tank-ers. The Maemi is a stainless steel IMO II chemical tanker formerly known as Braken. Sim-ilar five-year old vessels are generally quoted at about US$26m.
The main player in the sale and purchase market for LPG ships lately has been BW LPG. The leading independent Owner purchased four VLGC resales of 84,000cbm from DSME for US$290m enblock. The ships were originally ordered by Chi-na Peace. BW LPG previously also declared a purchase option of the VLGC Vermillion First (2010 built) for US$73m. In the smaller ship segments we rec-orded the sale of Knightsbridge 11,000cbm PR (2009 built) at a price of US$26- 27m to Aygaz. Furthermore, Epic has sold Epic Cebu (4,000 PR, 1997 built) and the Cefalu (4,000cbm PR, 1996 built) to South East Asian buy-ers. Stealthgas has sold the Gas Crystal (3,200cbm PR, 1990) and the Gas Kaizen (4,200cbm PR, 1991) for demolition. In a surprise move Latsco ordered two fully ref. LPG carriers of 60,000cbm at Hyundai HI for Q3 2016 delivery at a price of US$70m per ship. K-Line and NYK contracted one VLGC each at Mitsubishi and Kawasaki respectively. Both ships will be delivered in 2017 and will then commence long term charters for Astomos.
HIGHLIGHTS
Crude: High new-
building activity in
Q1
Dry: Expectations
mismatch in
secondhand mar-
ket
Chemical: STST
tankers dominate
SnP activity
Gas: BW LPG ma-
kes move on resa-
les
April 2015
Dry
Crude
Chemical
Gas
Monthly S&P Report
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Hot Hulls
2
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
The spring push has started as rates are firming up both East and West of Suez. Vessel supply is tight in general and the Baltic
Index look set to climb further in the weeks ahead. Houston export has normalized, Asian demand is strong and Indian ports are
severely congested; all leading to increased employment and tonne-miles.
VLGC
Dry Bulk
VLCC
A bear market on iron ore for the past 18 months has taken its toll on parts of the dry bulk market. With Australian mining majors
announcing production cuts this past week, one of the iron ore benchmarks rose by 5.9% day on day. Whilst unlikley to have a
major effect on dry bulk rates in the near future, it is still the first flicker of light at the end of the tunnel.
VLGC Fleet -Ordering and Scrapping
Capesize Values Dry Bulk Fleet - Deliveries and Scrapping
VLGC Values (82/84 kcbm)
VLCC Values VLCC Deliveries and Scrapping
VLCC values are still at relatively low levels compared to historical trends, but with recent SNP activity and interest at high levels
we expect asset values to rise steadily given the strong fundamentals underpinning the tanker market.
3
Whether you define yourself as bull or bear on crude oil, the
current fundamentals facing the oil market are inescapable, (if
their consequences not somewhat unclear at times).
Since the oil price’s drastic decline, talk has been of capex-cuts
for US producers, the bet being that tighter cash-flows will even-
tually bring less drilling investment and falling production rates -
especially in areas where well-depletion rates are high. But
whilst the Baker Hughes rig-count has fallen steadily (reduced
by almost 1,000 units since last summer), market opinion has
varied from the imminent, to the 12-month perspective on
when this will affect production. The pundits seem to have
gotten it right this time (if we don’t focus too much on their tim-
ing), as the monthly data from EIA now shows signs of produc-
tion volumes falling in
three out of four major
US shale basins, for the
first time in four years.
Bakken, Eagle Ford and
the Niobrara are likely to
see falling output be-
tween April and May,
whilst production
growth in the Permian is
set to slow down. The
total numbers show a
predicted reduction in
shale oil output of
45,000 bpd— shifting production down to 4.98 mbpd.
If we are now seeing the first indications of periodic lower crude
oil output out of the US, oil prices are likely to gain upwards
momentum (Brent crude oil has recently been floating at just
above US$60/barrel). However, how far prices will climb also
depends on other supply factors, and whether we will see OPEC
members’ objectives falling into line. Some cartel members have
short-term objectives, needing oil revenues to balance national
budgets, whilst countries like Saudi Arabia seem to be more
concerned about the peak demand of oil, taking a longer per-
spective on things. Lower crude oil prices support the competi-
tiveness of oil over renewable energy sources which will help to
secure oil producers’ market share of global energy needs into
the future.
Less production out of the US might also bring some relief to
overflowing storage of crude in the country, with Cushing Okla-
homa (the WTI benchmark) now standing at record levels of
86% of total storage capacity (up by another 7% since March).
As on-land storage is close to reaching total capacity, US produc-
tion will either have to be curbed or excess oil must go onto
floating storage. The latter development would create a tighter
tanker market.
If the market believes prices will rise, we are likely to see a re-
turn of the contango structure that received much focus earlier
this year. But in order for this to create a floating storage party
like it’s 2009, some supply side issues must come together; ei-
ther a decrease in US production levels, or escalation of tensions
in the Middle East such as
insurgents’ sabotage on oil
infrastructure in the north-
ern parts of Iraq impacting
the country’s oil supply. An
escalation in the Yemen
conflict might also tighten
the tanker market, should
owners choose to go
around the Cape instead of
the Suez Canal for security
reasons. In the past 10
months, increasing issues
with Libyan production
and ongoing conflict in parts of the Middle East have notably
raised prices only once, and for a very short period, still making
the case that US production is the marginal supplier currently
tipping price levels. The major wild-card in this scenario is when
and how the lifting of Iran sanctions will add to global crude oil
supply.
As it seems the US has entered the role of swing producer, we
suggest the shipping industry keep a keen eye on fundamentals
and hedge at least part of their bunker exposure.
Special Report - Has the future arrived?
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
4
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Scrapping
Newbuilding Prices (China)
Bunker Prices
Dry Bulk Scrapping Scrap Price Developments
Dry Bulk NB Prices (China) Tanker NB Prices (China)
Source: AXS/L&S Research
D r y B u lk M a r-1 5 F e b -1 5 Ja n -1 5 T r e n d
N e w c a s t le m a x 5 4 .6 6 5 5 .3 5 5 .7 S o ft e n in g
C a p e s iz e 5 1 .6 9 5 2 .1 5 2 .5 S o ft e n in g
K a m s a r m a x 2 8 .4 2 8 .0 2 9 .1 S o ft e n in g
P a n a m a x 2 7 .3 5 2 7 .7 2 8 .0 S o ft e n in g
U lt ra m a x 2 6 .0 5 2 6 .6 2 6 .9 3 S o ft e n in g
H a n d y s iz e 2 2 .4 1 2 2 .6 2 2 .9 S o ft e n in g
T a n k e r
V L C C 9 4 .1 4 9 4 .3 9 4 .4 S o ft e n in g
S u e z m a x 6 0 .3 8 6 0 .4 6 0 .5 S o ft e n in g
L R 2 5 0 .9 2 5 1 .1 5 1 .2 F ir m in g
L R 1 4 0 .3 9 4 0 .3 4 0 .4 S t e a d y
M R 3 5 .1 2 3 5 .0 3 5 .1 S t e a d y
(U S $ / m t) A p r il to d a te M a rc h T re n d
R o tte rd a m IF O 3 8 0 2 9 7 .1 3 0 1 .4 S o fte n in g
R o tte rd a m M G O 5 2 0 .9 5 4 8 .3 S o fte n in g
S in g a p o re IF O 3 8 0 3 2 0 .7 3 2 9 .0 S o fte n in g
S in g a p o re M G O 5 4 0 .2 5 6 5 .8 S o fte n in g
5
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Interest rates, currencies, PMI
Manufacturing PMI US/China/EU
US$ LIBOR Interest Rate - Maturity 3 Months
USD/CNY
Exchange Rates
Office Address
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Munkedamsveien 45, 0250 Oslo
P.O. Box 2029 Vika, 0125 Oslo
Norway
+47 2252 7700
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Leof. Karamanli 25 Voula 166 73
Athens,
Greece
+30 210 89 000 59
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8 Eu Tong Sen Street,
#21-98 Office 1 The Central
059818 Singapore
+65 6349 8400
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Room 2701, Shanghai Central Plaza
381 Huai Hai Zhong Road, 200020 Shanghai
China
+86 21 6391 5880
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8 East 41st St 8th Floor
New York, NY 10017
United States of America
+1(212) 684 2503
6
Reported transactions list - Wet
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
P r ic e U S $ m N a m e S iz e B u ilt Y a r d B u y e r S e lle r N o te s
1 8 .5 P u la 4 7 ,3 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 6 3 M a j B ro d o g ra d ilis te C h a m p io n T a n k e rs A S B o re a lis M a r it im e B B B - C h e m
2 3 F u tu re P ro s p e r ity 4 8 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 0 Iw a g i Z o s e n U n k n o w n F u k u jin K is e n
1 6 .2 F a o u e t 3 7 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 5 H y u n d a i M ip o T h e n a m a r is S o c a tra
4 4 H u ll 3 1 2 2 S u n g d o n g 7 4 ,5 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 6 S u n g d o n g N is s h in S h ip p in g S c o rp io B u lk e rs L R 1
4 4 H u ll 3 1 2 3 S u n g d o n g 7 4 ,5 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 6 S u n g d o n g N is s h in S h ip p in g S c o rp io B u lk e rs L R 1
4 4 H u ll 3 1 2 4 S u n g d o n g 7 4 ,5 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 6 S u n g d o n g N is s h in S h ip p in g S c o rp io B u lk e rs L R 1
A fr a m a x
1 2 .5 A t la n t ik 1 0 5 ,3 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 8 H a lla U n k n o w n V is ta S h ip p in g L R 2
3 3 .5 C lio 1 1 4 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 8 N e w T im e s T B M a r in e S e a a r la n d S h ip p in g * In c 2 y r T C 2 2 5 0 0 p / d to S h e ll
2 5 .5 C o s m ic Je w e l 3 0 1 ,0 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 7 M its u b is h i H I A g r it ra d e E a s te rn P a c if ic
S u e z m a x
P r o d u c t
V L C C
P a n a m a x
7
Reported transactions list - Dry
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Disclaimer: The information contained within this report has been collected from a number of market sources and is given in good
faith without guarantee, for information purposes only. Lorentzen & Stemoco and its affiliates, directors and employees are not
liable or responsible for any consequences whatsoever occurring from errors or inaccuracy of the information contained within this
report.
P r ic e U S $ m N a m e S iz e B u ilt Y a r d B u y e r S e lle r
9 .2 In d ig o O c e a n 2 8 ,7 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 8 Im a b a r i D e v a l S h ip p in g S h o e i K is e n
2 2 .0 O n y x 1 3 7 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 5 S a ik i W is d o m M a r in e L in e s C o s e n a
4 .7 O r ie n te S k y 2 4 ,1 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 7 S a ik i U n k n o w n C h in e s e N Y K G lo b a l B u lk
3 .9 K o ts ik a s 2 7 ,4 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 6 H a n jin H e a v y In d H a to u n S h ip p in g T h a lk a t S h ip p in g
9 .0 Ja s m in e A c e 3 2 ,9 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 6 K a n d a N a rv a l S h ip p in g C o rp S a to S te a m s h i
3 .5 N a v is io n A llia n c e 2 8 ,5 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 5 K a n d a T a b a lo N a v is io n G ro u p
1 8 .5 S to n e s 2 8 ,1 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 1 S ie ta s N o rth A m e r ic a n H a rtm a n n H a n s H u rg e n
7 .5 T M S M a r ia 5 2 ,4 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 1 T s u n e is h i Z o s e n U n k n o w n V ic to r ia S te a m s h ip
4 .5 S e a R o s e 4 5 ,7 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 5 H a s h ih im a C h in e s e A th e n ia n S h ip m a n a g e m e n t
2 4 .5 S B I T h a lia 6 4 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 5 C h e n g x i G re e k S c o rp io B u lk e rs
3 .5 D o n F ra n e B u lic 4 2 ,6 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 7 B ro d o s p lit U n k n o w n G re e k Ja d ro p lo v
1 2 .3 N o b le H a w k 5 6 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 7 M its u i Ic h ih a ra B a ru D e lta M a r it im e N is s e n K a iu n
4 .8 K ite 4 7 ,2 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 7 D a e d o n g U n k n o w n E a g le B u lk S h ip p in g
4 .2 B la c k f in 4 3 ,2 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 5 H y u n d a i H e a v y In d U n k n o w n M id d le E a s te rn T r i B u lk S h ip p in g
2 4 .0 D o m in iq u e V e n tu re 6 3 ,5 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 5 C h e n g x i U n k n o w n G re e k W a h K w o n g S h ip p in g
4 .5 S e a la d y 4 2 ,2 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 5 O s h im a M u h ie d d in e S h ip p in g E a s te rn M e d ite r ra n e a n M a r it im e
6 .1 V a lo p o u la 4 5 ,6 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 0 T s u n e is h i C e b u S te e lS h ip s L L C P e tro f in S h ip M
1 7 .2 P ra b h u S h e r 8 1 ,3 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 1 H y u n d a i H e a v y In d U n k n o w n T o la n i S h ip p in g
6 .0 P o n to d a m o n 7 2 ,9 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 0 D a e d o n g U n k n o w n C h in e s e O c e a n F re ig h te rs L td
7 .0 S h iy o 7 7 ,5 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 1 S a s e b o U n k n o w n C h in e s e D a iw a K is e n
4 .5 A g io s E fra im 7 3 ,0 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 8 D a e d o n g U n k n o w n C h in e s e V ic to r ia S te a m s h ip
1 1 .5 C in z ia D 'A m a to 7 5 ,2 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 8 H u d o n g U n k n o w n C h in e s e P e rs e v e ra n z a d i N a v ig a z io n e
1 2 .5 D e w i L a k s m i 7 6 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 1 G u a n g z h o u S h ip y a rd In t U n k n o w n G ra n d B u lk S h ip p in g
1 7 .8 B lu e M a tte rh o rn 8 1 ,4 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 1 H y u n d a i S a m h o H e a v y In d A e o lo s M a n a g e m e n t B lu e M a r in e
1 7 .7 U n ity P r id e 8 1 ,4 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 1 H y u n d a i S a m h o H e a v y In d A e o lo s M a n a g e m e n t G o ld e n B r id g e
3 .5 G e ra s im o s 7 0 ,3 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 6 S u m ito m o U n k n o w n N o m ik o s E
1 7 .2 P ra b h u M o h in i 8 1 ,3 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 1 H y u n d a i H e a v y In d C h a rtw o r ld S h ip p in g T o la n i S h ip p in g
2 7 .0 S B I M e re n g u e 8 1 ,6 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 5 T s u n e is h i Z h o u s h a n W is d o m M a r in e L in e s S c o rp io B u lk e rs
8 .7 S e k iy o 9 1 ,4 0 0 D W T 1 9 9 8 H ita c h i U n k n o w n C h in e s e N Y K L in e
4 4 .0 S B I P e r fe c to 1 8 0 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 5 D a e w o o -M a n g a lia A n a n g e l M a r it im e S e rv ic e s S c o rp io B u lk e rs
4 4 .0 S B I P re s id e n te 1 8 0 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 6 D a e w o o -M a n g a lia A n a n g e l M a r it im e S e rv ic e s S c o rp io B u lk e rs
4 4 .0 S B I C h u rc h ill 1 8 0 ,0 0 0 D W T 2 0 1 5 D a e w o o -M a n g a lia A n a n g e l M a r it im e S e rv ic e s S c o rp io B u lk e rs
9 .3 O n o e 1 7 2 ,6 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 0 N K K N G M E n e rg y N Y K L in e
9 .3 C h ito s e 1 7 1 ,2 0 0 D W T 2 0 0 0 K o y o D o c k N G M E n e rg y N Y K L in e
C a p e s iz e
P a n a m a x -P o s t P M X
H a n d y m a x -S u p r a m a x
H a n d y
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