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Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts
May 2019
Richard F. Moody- Chief EconomistSteve Pfitzer – Investor Relations
Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to be reliable. This information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations about accuracy, completeness or reliability. Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.
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Monthly Highlights / CommentarySoon-To-Be Record Long Expansion Showing No Signs Of Quit
• The BEA’s initial estimate pegs annualized Q1 2019 real GDP growth at 3.2 percent, toppingeven the most optimistic forecast. Q1 growth could have been even better – BEA estimates thatthe partial government shutdown shaved three-tenths of a point off of Q1 real GDP growth. Tobe sure, Q1 growth was flattered by another sizable build in business inventories and there willbe payback in the Q2 data, but full-year 2019 growth should land between 2.2 and 2.7 percent.
• Talk about topping expectations, total nonfarm employment rose by 263,000 jobs in April, alsotopping the most optimistic forecast. While we think the estimate of a 27,000-jobs increase ingovernment payrolls is exaggerated, private sector payrolls rose by 236,000 jobs in April, andover the past 12 months private sector payrolls have risen by just under 2.5 million jobs. Jobgrowth remains notably broad based, which is a sign this expansion has further to run – keep inmind that, come July, this will become the longest expansion on record.
• One area of concern at present is the manufacturing sector. While the ISM Manufacturing Indexcontinues to point to expansion in the factory sector, the pace of that expansion has fallen offand job gains in manufacturing have slowed to a crawl. Slower global economic growth, aninventory overhang, and a decelerating pace of motor vehicle sales will weigh on the factorysector over coming months, though we see the first two of these factors as transitory.
• After ending 2018 on a distressingly soft note, the housing market has shown signs of renewedlife in 2019. Lower mortgage interest rates and solid job and income growth are fueling growthin demand for home purchases, and we see room for steady, though not spectacular, growth insingle family construction and sales over coming months.
• With solid growth and muted inflation pressures, interest rates will likely be somewhat rangebound over coming months. The FOMC has rightly adopted a patient approach to any furtherchanges in the Fed funds rate – in either direction – and will be on hold for some time to come.
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8 Indicator:
Last Observation:
Reported As:
Value:
% Change Year Ago, or Year Ago Value:
Real GDP Q1 2019 (1st est.) Annualized % change 3.17% 3.21% Payroll Employment April 2019 Monthly change, thousands of jobs +263 1.76% Private Sector Employment April 2019 Monthly change, thousands of jobs +236 1.97% Unemployment Rate April 2019 % of labor force 3.6% 3.9% “U6” Unemployment/Underemployment April 2019 % of labor force 7.3% 7.8% Unemployed 27 Weeks or More April 2019 Millions of people 1.230 1.311 Aggregate Private Sector Earnings April 2019 Monthly % change 0.11% 4.97% Real Personal Disposable Income March 2019 Monthly % change 2.34% Real Personal Disposable Income ex‐Transfers March 2019 Monthly % change 1.75% Real Personal Consumption Expenditures March 2019 Monthly % change 0.67% 2.51% Personal Savings Rate March 2019 % of disposable personal income 6.50% 7.20% Consumer Price Index – Total March 2019 Monthly % change 0.41% 1.86% Consumer Price Index – Core March 2019 Monthly % change 0.15% 2.04% Producer Price Index – Final Demand March 2019 Monthly % change 0.60% 2.17% Producer Price Index – Core Final Demand March 2019 Monthly % change 0.26% 2.45% Single Family Housing Permits March 2019 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 808,000 851,000 Multi‐Family Housing Permits March 2019 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 461,000 526,000 Single Family Housing Starts March 2019 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 785,000 882,000 Multi‐Family Housing Starts March 2019 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 354,000 445,000 Industrial Production March 2019 Monthly % change 2.77% ISM Manufacturing Index April 2019 Index value, % 52.8% 57.9% ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index April 2019 Index value, % 51.7% 61.2% ISM Non‐Manufacturing Index April 2019 Index value, % 55.5% 57.2% ISM Non‐Manufacturing New Orders Index April 2019 Index Value, % 58.1% 60.0% Federal Funds Rate Target Range Mid‐Point May 3, 2019 Percent 2.375% 1.625% One‐Month LIBOR Rate May 3, 2019 Percent 2.48% 1.92% 3‐Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield May 3, 2019 Percent 2.41% 1.84% 2‐Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield May 3, 2019 Percent 2.32% 2.49% 10‐Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield May 3, 2019 Percent 2.52% 2.94% Dollar‐Euro Exchange Rate May 3, 2019 Euros per U.S. dollar 0.8935 0.8354 Dollar‐Yen Exchange Rate May 3, 2019 Yen per U.S. dollar 111.18 109.06 Federal Reserve Broad U.S. Dollar Index April 26, 2019 Index value, 1997 = 100 127.9894 119.7177
ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL DATA HIGHLIGHTS – May 2019
-
Contribution To Real GDP Growth
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19PCE Business Fixed Inv. Res. Fixed Inv. Inventories Net Exports Government
percentage points
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Real GDPAnnualized Percentage Change
Unemployment Rate, %
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
U6 (unemployment/underemployment)U3 (unemployment)
Total Payroll Employment
-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300400500
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
monthly change, seasonally adjusted,thousands (L)
12-month change, not seasonallyadjusted, millions (R)
-
Civilian Labor Force
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
labor force participation rate (%) employment-to-population ratio, %
Long-Term Unemployed
Unemployed for 27 Weeks or Longer, Millions of People
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Consumers’ Assessment of Labor Market Conditions-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
5078 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Spread between “jobs plentiful” and"jobs hard to get", inverse scale (L)Unemployment rate, % (R)
Private Sector Hiring Diffusion Index
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
one month ago six months ago
Net % of private sectorindustries hiring compared to:
3-month moving averages
-
Real Disposable Personal Income% change year ago
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Total Excluding transfers
Personal Spending, Saving
-4-3-2-10123456789
101112
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Personal consumption expenditures, % change year agoPersonal saving rate, % of disposable personal income
Real Consumer Spending% change year ago
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
durable goods nondurable goods services
Total Household Debt
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16
% of disposable personal incomeexcluding transfer payments
% of disposable personal income
-
Household Financial Obligations Ratio% of disposable income
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Consumer Confidence Index1985 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Present Conditions Expectations
Industrial Production, Capacity UtilizationAll Sectors
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1965.0
67.5
70.0
72.5
75.0
77.5
80.0
82.5
Industrial Production, % changeyear ago (L)Capacity Utilization Rate, % (R)
Industrial Production, Capacity UtilizationManufacturing Sector
-18
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1962.5
65.0
67.5
70.0
72.5
75.0
77.5
80.0
82.5
Industrial Production, % changeyear ago (L)Capacity Utilization Rate, % (R)
-
ISM Indexdiffusion index, net percentage
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Manufacturing Index Non-Manufacturing Index
above 50.0 % indicates expansion;below 50.0% indicates contraction
Housing Starts (000’s of units)not seasonally adjusted, 12-month moving sum
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R)
Housing Permits (000’s of units)not seasonally adjusted, 12-month moving sum
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1945
50
55
60
65
70
% change year ago (L)$ billion (R)
Core Capital Goods Orders3-month moving averages
-
Foreclosure Starts – United Statesnumber of loans
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States
Home Sales (000’s of units)
not seasonally adjusted, 12-month moving sum
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1,050
1,150
1,250
1,350
Existing Homes (L) New Homes (R)
Foreclosure Starts – Regions Footprintnumber of loans
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States
Index of House Prices% change year ago
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
FHFA - Purchase Only Core Logic
-
Existing Home Inventories
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192
4
6
8
10
12
14Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R)
Median Home Prices$ thousands, 6-month moving average
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
New Homes Existing Homes
New Home Inventories
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192
4
6
8
10
12
14Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R)
CoreLogic Loan Performance DataUnited States
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
REO Inventory, ths (L)90+day delinquency rate, % (R)
-
Bank Charge-Off Rates By Loan Type, %
0123456789
1011121314
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
HELOC Mortgage Credit Cards Other Consumer Loans
Survey of Senior Lending Officers – C&I Loansnet % of banks reporting rising loan demand from:
-80
-70-60
-50
-40-30
-20
-10
010
20
3040
50
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
large/medium firms small firms
Survey of Senior Lending Officers – Prime Mortgagesnet % of banks reporting:
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
stronger loan demand tighter lending standards
Producer Price Index% change year ago
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Total PPI Core PPI
-
WTI Crude Oil, Retail Gasoline Prices
102030405060708090
100110120130140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
WTI, $ per bbl (L) gasoline, $ per gallon (R)
Selected Interest Rates, %weekly data
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
10-year TreasuryAAA Corporate Bond30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Spread Between Yields On 10-year and 2-year Treasury Notesweekly data
-0.250.000.25
0.500.751.001.25
1.501.752.002.25
2.502.753.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Consumer Price Index% change year ago
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Total CPI Core CPI
-
TED Spreadspread between 3-month LIBOR and 3-month T-bill, %
0.000.250.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.50
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollarweekly data
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Chinese Yuan per U.S. Dollarweekly data
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
7.60
7.80
8.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Euros per U.S. Dollarweekly data
0.60
0.64
0.68
0.72
0.76
0.80
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.96
1.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Monthly Econ Review - May 2019Data Table - May 2019Charts - May 2019
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